1000 Guineas 2013

Considering that her half sister took a while to come to hand and she’s just won a G3 impressively on only her second start I’d say she’s the one to beat.

Over the years the trainer has handled his top fillies beautifully and hopefully she’ll prove to be another.

Lee

Do you not think that it’s irrelevant what she’s beaten though, given how much depth in strength O’brien has in his stable, anything he sends for a big race is pretty much going to have a very good chance? I mean to use a recent example, Kingsbarns hardly had great form going into the Racing Post trophy, but he hosed up.

Basically he times them at home as well, so he has a very good understanding of the pecking order in his stable.

Moth, according to my admittedly rough timings, basically ran with a rocket up her bum in the final furlong of her maiden. Admittedly she was coming off a very slow pace, but she was still able to run the final furlong quicker than the winner of the five furlong maiden on the same card.

Maybe with that sort of speed she’s more of a Guineas filly than Oaks filly. Anyway I can’t have Hot Snap at all, perhaps i’m going to be left with egg on my face, but I was hardly blown away by her performance today. In fact the only horse who impressed me on that card was the Fabre horse.

Having been there and seen Hot Snap sprout wings and come from last to first, passing my much fancied selection Sky Lantern on the rail and making her look mediocre which she certainly is not…I would be very worried that this filly is going to win the 1000 Guineas.
Looking at her action she is going to love the drying ground and her turn of foot took your breath away.

Sky Lantern looked big and burley in the paddock and the way Hannon’s horses are running it’s as if they are short of a race, he’ll be looking more to Royal Ascot for having his horses fit at this rate.

Trainers today such as Balding, David Evans, Richard Fahy, Andre Fabre (what a horse that Intello was, Olivier Peslier never moved a muscle on him) Henry Candy and Rod Milman. Only Cecil and Godolphin flying the flag for Newmarket trainers.

Would also add that Sir Henry is very sweet on Frankel’s half brother Morpheus after he ran 4th to Godolphin’s Improvisation today, he actually came into the winners enclosure to have a word with Tom Queally and the owners and spent time making a fuss of the horse, he then very sportingly went across to the Godolphine representatives and shook them by the hand.
Pleased to report that he was looking so much better today albeit still thin and the delight of Hot Snap winning the Nel Gwyn obviously putting a spring in his step.

A brilliant first day and it will be interesting to see if Hannon’s Toronado is fit tomorrow or if Dundonnell will take the spoils, on todays results my money would be on Dundonnell.

Do you not think that it’s irrelevant what she’s beaten though, given how much depth in strength O’brien has in his stable

I don’t recommend backing horses without giving consideration to what grade of race they have been running in and what class of horse they have been facing. Time will show what the horses who ran behind Moth are capable of and the first runner Bethany Bay, who finished 3rd to Moth was only 4th on her next start, in another maiden race. Of course O’Brien has a powerful string of horses bred in the purple but the fact that a maiden winner, previously beaten twice, is his main contender shows that sometimes there is no rabbit at the bottom of the hat, irrespective of how big that hat is. In an open looking year she has a chance of course and I might have considered a saver on the day, but another contender has surfaced and beaten a GP1 winner in the process. That has to mean that Moth has a harder task on her plate than before and I won’t back her now. I would be interested to see match odds between the two on the day.

Hannon Jr. stated today that SL would come on for the race yesterday, fair enough and with Hot Snap winning with 3lb. also fair enough.
Certify beat SL at NMKT in a GP3 on her 2nd race, started slowly too.
Sir Henry is my hero but if Hot Snap can bounce in from yesterday in 2 1/2 weeks time on her 3rd. only run hen brilliant but Certifys’ team have had , until right now, 3 runners – 2 winners and a second.
To me it all points to Certify, unbeaten – ground not a problem so i just she wakes up on the day in a good mood.

Breathtaking turn of foot? Must have been watching a different race to me, although I guess it’s a game of opinions.

I don’t know Horse’s mouth, maybe i’m talking bollox here, but there’s just something a bit soft about them. (Weld’s) Or maybe that’s the case with anything that wins like Big Break has been doing, showing a brilliant burst of speed, you wonder what they’ll be like in a battle. When the chips are really down.

Very few guineas are won by raw speed, most tend to be an war of attrition. That’s why a lot of guineas winners tend to have high dosage profiles, you need that depth of stamina to get home over the stiff mile early in your three year old career.

Also I can’t recall of the top of my head if he’s ever won the English 1000, but I imagine he’s had a few fancied ones.

Then again having said all this i’d far rather back Big Break at this stage than the now overhyped Hot Spark or whatever it’s called.

I think you’re being very unfair EGS. I’ve been watching Irish flat racing closely for three or four years now and I haven’t seen anything that has led me to believe there is anything characteristically soft about his horses. What I do know is this: when Weld sends one overseas, take note. In my opinion the likeliest route for Big Break is Irish 100 Guineas and then the Coronation Stakes.

Saying that ‘very few guineas are won by raw speed’ and ‘most tend to be a war of attrition’ also seems strange to me. I don’t think the Guineas is any more of a war than any number of Group 1’s throughout the season: but it’s obviously beneficial to have a horse who’ll stick their head down and battle, particularly in the best races where they’re likely to meet the best of the rest.

Hoping that winning Express can improve for the extra furlong and come on for that run in the Nell Gwyn. Was beaten far enough but didn’t get the clearest of runs. Seemed to be going on at the finish although admittedly Hot Snap and Sky Lantern were both eased.

i’m going for desert image in the fred darling- most of the others look like two year old sprinters.

in the john porter it’s a guarantee, take on olympic glory with moojahim, and in the last a speculative punt on dragon city

Bad news for Certify!!
http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=1054047