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Well, with a week to go before the newmarket, I’ve had a quick look at the market and one horse stands out for me, at least in terms of value.
Donna Blini is 18/1 on Betfair yet has beaten Nannina and Flashy Wings on separate occasions, with no possible excuses for either. Only beaten once in her 2 year old career, and a group 2 and group 1 winner. Her breeding doesn’t add to her chances (being by Bertolini) but it by no means rules her out of staying a mile, and Brian Meehan is quite confidant.
Mick Kinane now confirmed to ride so she will have the assistance of a jockey who for me, was the outstanding race rider last year.
As for the rest, I fear Flashy Wings. Unlucky when losing to expensive, having to race too far away and all alone, and suspicions that Durcan rode her too far back in the Cheveley Park.
I think Nannina will need further than a mile and may struggle to keep pace. Silcas Sister is interesting and has clearly pleased in Dubai but her best performance came on treacherous conditions, whereas next Sunday we will most probably encounter good (or firmer) going.
I don’t think Speciosa has the necessary class. There doesnt seem to be a lot of confidence behind Rumplestilskin and I’m not overly sure is she the sort of filly to improve from 2 to 3. Saying that, I had similar thoughts about Flashy Wings during her 2 year old season.
In summary the top 3 (in no order) for me are Flashy Wings, Silcas Sister and Donna Blini, who is by far the standout price.
Thoughts anyone?
(Edited by Salselon at 8:58 pm on April 30, 2006)
Donna Blini has Lyphard in her Damsire line.<br>Wince had Lyphard as her Damsire and won the 1000 Guineas.<br>Lyphard won a Group 1 at 8f in France and was also the Sire of Dancing Brave so I would think Donna Blini ought to have enough stamina for the mile. <br>Bertolini for speed and Lyphard for enough stamina for the mile and Mick Kinane, it augers well.
Also Lyphard is in the Damsire lines of Valixer 8f G1 winner,Indian Haven 8f G1 winner and Casual Look Oaks winner.<br>
(Edited by threenaps at 9:57 pm on April 30, 2006)
Surely the reason Channon hasn’t already gone close in the One Thousand Guineas so far is doen to bad luck. Bint Allyaal and Queens Logic (in particular the latter) would both have had a very good chance had they managed to get to the race.
Flashy Wings run in the Cheveley Park suggested she was going to relish a step up in trip with a winter on her back and she sould go there with a good chance. Extremely boring but I wouldn’t be surprised if she won with Rumpelstilstkin the one to beat.
<br>Yes I like Flashy Wings, on the positive side Mick Channon did train the only one of Zafonics offspring to win an English Group 1 at 8f in the last 6 years, Zafeen 2nd in the 2000 Guineas and 1st in the St James Palace….hopefully she’ll be there on Sunday.<br>
Don’t rule out Nasheej.
She has a good level of form, is race fit and has been screaming out for a step up to a mile. The extra furlong and the type of course that Newmarket is should suit her down to the ground.
Yeah Id agree with that. Thats the trouble with these classic contenders going in as fresh 3 year olds. We all know Flashy Wings and Rumpelstiltskin are the main contenders off 2 year old form but it would have been nice to get a view of them in a prep race. I think Speciosa has improved all last season and has improved through the winter and if she keeps straight, she will be thereabouts for me.
SHL
Great post Andrew!!
I’m very afraid of Flashy Wings, I must admit. I thought Durcan basically stopped riding her when she got beat by Expensive, and the Cheveley Park run was simply a case of having run less than 2 weeks prior.
I’m not a fan of Silca’s Sister at all, but I’d be doubtful over Donna Blini getting the trip.
Rumplestiltskin needs 10f IMO to be seen at her best. I wasn’t impressed with her at all last season, until stepping up in trip and winning a G1 over a mile at Longchamp on Arc day. She won with plenty in hand, and very convincingly.
I’d eliminate all horses who have had a run this season, as Guineas horses that go fresh predominantly do better than horses who have had a run. So Nasheej, Speciosa, etc all have no chance in my book.
Nannina won the Fillies Mile after being blocked in by Fallon and Alexandrova for a lot of the race, and probably would have won by more had he had a clear run. Will be interesting to see the jockey booking on her.
But Rumplestiltskin for me, with Flashy Wings chasing her home.
I’d eliminate all horses who have had a run this season, as Guineas horses that go fresh predominantly do better than horses who have had a run. So Nasheej, Speciosa, etc all have no chance in my book.
Five of the last ten 1000 Guineas winners have had a prep (Virginia Waters ending a sequence of four who didn’t), whilst of the last six winners of either Guineas, three had a prep – Virginia Waters, Haafhd and Refuse To Bend.
7 of the last 10 2000 Gns winners went without a prep. I will get some info on the 1000 Guineas winners when I have more time, because i’m up in 7 hours to go to Brussels for the day!!
Even so, the Guineas trials have looked extremely poor this season. Fair enough the form was upheld with Nasheej winning, after she finished 3rd in the Fillies Mile, but Speciosa and Nasheej are both non-stayers of the mile (debatable over Speciosa for some).
Does anybody know why the 1000 Guineas trials are over 7f?? Eg. Nell Gwyn, Fred Darling. It seems strange that the Craven is pretty much only the recognized Guineas trial that is over a mile. Does anybody know why??
Quote: from jackane24 on 10:30 pm on May 1, 2006[br]Even so, the Guineas trials have looked extremely poor this season. Fair enough the form was upheld with Nasheej winning, after she finished 3rd in the Fillies Mile, but Speciosa and Nasheej are both non-stayers of the mile (debatable over Speciosa for some).
This argument is drummed up every year for both the Guineas and the Derby. Surely it’s a bit premature to say that the "trials" are not up to standard? At least the horses involved have proven their well-being, which is something that can’t be said of the ones who haven’t run yet. Plenty of colts and fillies have been beaten in the Guineas having gone off a short price based on 2yo form only.<br>
Quote: from jackane24 on 10:30 pm on May 1, 2006[br]Does anybody know why the 1000 Guineas trials are over 7f?? Eg. Nell Gwyn, Fred Darling. It seems strange that the Craven is pretty much only the recognized Guineas trial that is over a mile. Does anybody know why??
Probably for the same reason that the main "trials" for the Derby are run over 10f-10.5f (Dee, Dante, & Derrinstown)
I think Speciosa has an excellent chance of staying the trip – as long as she doesn’t run an extra half furlong sideways again.
Absolutely no reason on breeding why she shouldn’t manage a mile.
I’m dutching Speciosa and Donna Blini today at 6.37/1 best prices (12s and 16s respectively)
The three I’ve got are
2pts Flashy Wings @ 10/1<br>1pt ew Race For The Stars @ 16/1<br>1pt Speciosa @ 16/1
I’m very confident i’ve got the winner here. Rumplestiltskin is the one I fear as it now looks a likely runner.
<br>I have Flashy Wings 20/1<br> Race for the Stars 12/1<br> Speciosa 20/1<br> Donna Blini 20/1
I’m hopeful. As it says above it will be interesting to see where Speciosa runs.
Speciosa apparently didn’t finish her racecourse gallop as she was put off by the Ch4 cameras today. If they put her off, imagine what’ll happen when she sees Mac!?!
Silca’s Sister – no-one seems to have mentioned that her form from her G1 is really quite poor. Ivan Denisovic got 2nd 2L back when giving her 4lbs, yet it is well-known that he wants top of the ground, and the race was on soft. The 6th horse, Puskas, came 3rd to Prince of Light next time out in a G3 6f race.
You could also argue that her full sister, Golden Silca, shows inability to win at the highest level, despite several Group placings.
Not for me i’m afraid – Godolphin panic buying this horse has led to a lot of the hype I think.
Speciosa – haven’t seen the Nell Gwyn, but from what I have heard was very lucky to hold on, despite hanging to the left, and will not be able to get away with it doing it in a high class race. The Nell Gwyn was a poor race.
Just looking through the form with great detail earlier, and finalising my stuff just now, the race has got to be between Flashy Wings, Rumplestiltskin and Nannina.
Rumplestiltskin is shaping as if 10f will she the best of her, and Nannina has a half sister who was running on to Lolita in the German 1000Gns on Sunday, coming 2nd, which showed that she was crying out for further. I think Nannina will go the same way, and doesn’t have the pace for this level.
But I think Rumplestiltskin will have the pace for the mile. I need to check where the pace of the race will come from first, but I’d imagine that Speciosa will set off in front setting a decent gallop.
But if the pace is too fast, I can’t see past Flashy Wings winning it. Her sire won the 2000Gns in 1993, has shown a great burst of speed, but Spencer has to make sure he doesn’t let her go too soon.
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