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I still have a few in the reckoning, i have Flashy wings at 12/1 Ante post and she wud probably be my 1st choice still.
I am contemplating betting Tommy Stacks filly Alexander Alliance, she has had 2 runs and her 2nd run which she beat O’ Briens Kamrinskaya easily and she has went on to frank the form of the race very nicely.
For more of an outsider i like Jeremy Noseda’s La Chunga, I have never been a fan of Rumplestilskin but La chunga beat her easy last year and she also beat Vague who was back in 2nd that day and vague has gone on to win the Uae guineas in a canter.
Hopefully the winner will come outta the 3 i have mentioned above.
Quote: from jackane24 on 11:38 pm on May 2, 2006[br]Just looking through the form with great detail earlier, and finalising my stuff just now, the race has got to be between Flashy Wings, Rumplestiltskin and Nannina.
You don’t fancy any of the market leaders then jackane?;)
Irisheyez its interesting you mention Alexander Alliance and La Chunga because Alexander Alliance seems to be for the 1000 what Nakheel was for the 2000 and its no secret I liked Nakheel. The form of its win is very strong but the reservation i have is there is a lot left to chance and now Pricewise has tipped it up there is no value left.<br> <br>La Chunga was the horse that stood out at the end of last year when I went through the form for the market leaders. However the element of value has gone for me and it will have to improve a lot to figure.
Its still Flashy Wings for me with Rumplesilitskin the danger.
Alexander Alliance for me too. Stack has his stable in great nick, and this horse has a great turn of foot.
DB, nothing else stands out for me in the form book.
Had Rumplestiltskin not run after the Moyglare, I wouldn’t even be looking at her right now. She loved the step up in trip to a mile. Will see the best out of her over 10f. La Chunga beat her easily because La Chunga is a sprinter, and Rumplestiltskin needs a mile at least to really get going.
Forget about Nannina – Medicean’s progeny tend to want 10f. Nannina’s half-sis ran in the German Guineas on Sunday, and was staying on in the final furlong to finish 2nd, and the exact same thing happened on her debut run. Plus, Alexandrova is bred to be a stayer, and Nannina only beat her a shd in the Fillies mile.
Rumplestiltskin – Flashy Wings for me.
"Forget about Nannina – Medicean’s progeny tend to want 10f".
Although this may be true in time, at this stage of the season Medicean’s first crop of 3 year olds are proving well capable of winning over a mile – in fact none have yet won over further.
His five 3yo winners so far this year have won 8 races between them, 2 over 7 furlongs and 6 over a mile (including a Listed race).
On breeding (using the limited sire evidence available) Nannina should easily stay 10f in time, but at this point in her 3yo season she should be perfectly suited to the stiff Newmarket mile.
Jackane Rumplestiltskin is 16/1 for the Oaks over 12f. Are you confident she will stay that far becuase that seems a good price if she will?
I have no doubt that she is capable of winning over a mile, but I just think this race will be too strong for her, and she’ll be staying on at the end – just like Rumplestiltskin.
It worries me that Alexandrova is looking like being a stayer, and Nannina only beat her a shd.
Shouk’s progeny (4) have thrown up 2 12f runners, magical Romance who ran in the oaks and won the Cheveley Park and Alexandrova. Shouk’s sire, Shirley Heights, has won the vast majority of his prize money on his offspring running between 10 and 13f.
And Alexandrova’s sire is the formidable Sadler’s Wells, who has amassed over £18m with runners over 12 or 13f.
No, I am not at all confident about Rumplestiltskin getting 12f. I think it was EC who posted something about Mr Prospector as a damsire and various other things, which has certainly swayed me. Mr Prospector has been very poor with progeny running over 12f, and certainly no classy ones. 10f has looked to be his maximum, with 8f also having a good record.
Rumple’s dam, Monevassia, only has 2 progeny, and 1 is by Sadler’s Wells, who never managed to win a race and became a hurdler. Monevassia herself only raced once over a mile and was beaten into 4th.
At the moment though, nothing really stands out in the Oaks market. I really liked Chenchikova, but she’s now injured and probably won’t run. Alexandrova is there on the breeding, but I just don’t fancy her at the moment. Unlike Horatio………:cheesy:
I completely agree that Alexandrova is bred to be a stayer – but I’m not so sure why this piece of form is troubling you so much.  They were, after all, two year olds, so were both unlikely to want much further at that point in their careers.
Sadler’s Wells two year olds are at their best distance over a mile, so I can’t quite see why this is a negative.
However, I don’t think she will win either – I like Rumplestiltkin and Speciosa – but that is not to do with her speed/stamina or her form. Nannina’s biggest problem is that she is trained by John Gosden.
Well that is the point i’m trying to make with Sir Percy and Horatio in the Dewhurst, and why they’ll get outpaced. Unlikely to want further at that age.
Nannina is around the 8/1 mark – what price was Alexandrova before she was withdrawn? Must have been at least 20/1. Yet she’s favourite for the oaks. A Guineas hopeful beating a possible Oaks winner by a shd is not good enough form in my book to consider her a winner. Fallon blocked in Nannina for a long time in the race, so it probably should have been around 3/4L loss to Nannina, but even then it wouldn’t inspire great confidence in me.
Quote: from jackane24 on 12:43 pm on May 5, 2006[br]Fallon blocked in Nannina for a long time in the race, so it probably should have been around 3/4L loss to Nannina
I don’t understand what you are trying to say here.
How can Medicean’s stat’s be used for analysing 3 year olds when his first crop have run only a handful of times?
Ok, some basic truths about breeding.
Racehorses do not reach the age of 3 and ping! suddenly they need to run over the trip most suitable for their pedigree.  Just as when they are two year olds, they can be built up over longer distances step by step.
The information that pedigree analysis gives us is the trip that a horse is most likely to be best at, once he has matured and strengthened enough to run that far.
This does not mean that a horse cannot be top class at another distance when competing against their peers earlier on in their career.
Ruling a horse out of the Guineas equation because on breeding they could stay 10+f is often unhelpful.  They have a much better chance at Newmarket than a horse that is bred to be a specialist miler who might not have yet matured enough to see out the trip fully.  Class is far more important at this stage.
The fact that Horatio and Sir Percy have enough stamina in their pedigrees to be top class at 12f does not mean they will be slow over a mile in May.  Jackane may never have heard of Nijinsky,  Triptych, Oh So Sharp or Nashwan, but there are plenty of more recent examples, such as Kazzia, Golan, Russian Rhythm and even bloody Hawk Wing, where 10-12f horses can triumph (or very nearly!) in an early season Gr.1 mile.
Just been studying the form for this. Looks like an open enough race.
What do you reckon on Wake up Maggies chances. Nobody has mentioned her but she was very impressive when beating Cool Creek in Ireland last year. She also divided Donna Blini Flasy wings. I suppose the only thing, she is not very big, so are we thus assuming she is less likely to train on.
Is that what happens with smaller horses??
SHL
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