“The compressing of the weights is what makes the classier horses come to the fore as much as anything I think. Realistically nothing with a chance gets into the race off less than 10 stone 7 maybe and they have to expose themselves to some degree to get in. This isn’t one of the run of the mill sneak one in at the bottom handicaps.”
Tinman there is the occasional year where the gap between Cheltenham and Aintree is 4 weeks and therefore sufficient time for a horse to excel at Cheltenham and therefore go into the National fresh enough and “well in”. In other words if the handicapper was able to reassess them they would have more weight, and therefore be amongst classier horses on the racecard. Happened to Corach Rambler in 2023, winning aged 9 off just 10 stone 5 and an OR of 146, because he was able to run in in the National unpenalised after his Ultima win. Johnnywho will be able to go to the National with a similar set of circumstances, an OR likely in the 150s but still able to run off his current mark of 146 after his Ultima win and carry 10 stone 4 should the top weight run as expected. All being well the trainer will freshen him up sufficiently for Aintree and be happy for him to run, assuming he gets in alright.
He’s had just the 10 chase starts as well aged 9 so not too many miles on the clock. And being 9 he’s in the recent winners age bracket of 7-9.
Not saying he will definitely win because Corach did but he does look shortlist material and it would be no surprise to me if he won.