I recently finished re-reading a classic history book, first published in 1935 – “The Strange Death of Liberal England”, written by George Dangerfield.
Modern historians have tended to reject its central thesis but the fact the book is still cited and responded to (when most history books are forgotten within months of publication) is proof of its importance.
I suppose it was only one by-election but the thought occurred to me: will a historian in a few years time be writing “The Strange Death of Labour England”? Because it seems to me that Labour is in danger of losing much of its support, under a weak leader who impresses no one.
Its traditional working class vote is heading for Reform, over issues such as illegal immigration and Labour seeming to care more about marginal causes rather than core concerns. Starmer is bitterly unpopular within that constituency.
On the other hand, Labour is losing the Guardian reading, middle class vote because it is deemed to be be insufficiently left wing and ideologically impure. That vote is going Green.
And most worryingly for Labour, the Muslim vote it used to be able to take to the bank is deserting it over reasons concerning foreign policy. At the last General Election and the recent by-election, the Islamic vote has shown it is more than willing to vote for its own candidate (or for the Greens) when their numbers are large enough to win. If that happens across scores of seats, Labour is in a lot of trouble.
