“I go against the general received wisdom that had Burnham been allowed to stand in the by-election the result would be a shoo-in for Labour.”
Maybe not a shoo-in but as mentioned earlier, an opinion poll (admittedly based on a small sample size) showed 49% support for Labour if Burnham was the candidate. And Labour were 4/9 with the bookmakers, whereas they are now 5/1 after choosing an undistinguished local councillor.
I would have laughed if Burnham had lost but I think he would have won convincingly.