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It’s rained quite a lot over the weekend here and has chucked it down for the last few hours.
The ground could well come up soft. I said on here a couple of weeks back that unless there was a lengthy dry period it would at least have some juice in it and guess what happened? We had a fortnight without a drop of rain!
Since the back and of last week we’ve had several days of persistent rain up here, we missed the brunt of storm Kate but we did get a lot of rain and it’s only just stopped here now from early this morning. Another storm is forecast to bring more wet stuff this weekend and the early indications are that low pressure systems from the Atlantic will continue sweeping in into next week.
Gooneyella and Mountainous are two that spring to mind if the ground is testing. I’ll have a few shillings on both now as their price might tumble if the weather forecast correct.
This is why racing can sometimes steal the hearts of millions. A truly wonderful moment in National Hunt history. Well done to everyone involved. Do we expect to see him on a racecourse again?
In a hypothetical scenario try to imagine Yanworth travelled on the inside rail a length behind Yorkhill for much of the race. The gap still opens up on the inside and Geraghty angles Yanworth wide to make his run in the home straight. Are you telling me that Yanworth would have still lost by the distance he did? Now, I understand there are plenty of imponderables in this type of discussion but it’s surely a scenario that many would have liked to see happen (as the consensus is that he was too wide, be it by instruction or poor judgment from the jockey).
Yanworth gave away more lengths than the distance he lost by. Yorkhill might well be a better horse and I suspect he had a bit more to give should he have needed it but Yanworth wasn’t given the best chance to win the race.
I think Min is the most likely winner but I can’t back him at his current price. If he somehow went to 5/2 I’d invest but anything shorter I probably won’t unless it’s part of a few accas/multiples.
I’ve been impressed by him but perhaps not to the extent that I have been with previous Mullins horses in similar scenarios. He’s a very sound jumper but I wonder if he’ll find much up the hill.
The one I liked about the 3.45 at Doncaster, yesterday, was The Druid’s Nephew. Perhaps on ground too soft but the way he came prominently on the scene impressed me (a little bit
)I agree The Druids Nephew’s run was very encouraging too. Don’t quite understand this thing about him being better on good ground though. To my mind TDN’s form suggests he’s just as effective on soft, even very soft. Was he much below form yesterday? Doubt it myself. And has 10 lengths to make up on The Last Samuri who’s improving all the time – and they meet at Aintree on identical terms.
Although the description in last year’s National was Good To Soft, the time suggested to me that it was as firm as they let it. The second fastest time since Mr Frisk won over 4 miles 4 furlongs in a TIME of 8m 47.80s (fast by 22.20s). While Many Clouds won over 4 miles 2 furlongs and 74 yards with a time of 8m 56.80s (fast by 7.20s).
The Druid’s Nephew came down just after Valentine’s second time round, but up to then looked like he was handling the ground.
We’d have to have quite a dry period for the ground to be near it was last year. This winter has been exceptionally wet and whilst I don’t know exactly what the ground is like now I’d be pretty sure it’s on the heavy side. I only live a few miles down the road from Aintree and amount of rainfall we’ve had up north has been unprecedented.
I think we’ll have the toughest National in years in regards to the ground.
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