[Uma]

The greatest filly of all should have been Kincsem (HUN) – unbeaten all over Europe in 54 races. She even won in GB – Goodwood Cup, while the best British trained horses of those days did not dare to run against her.

She made all her journeys in a train-wagon, accompanied by a cat.

A miracle, hands down.

[Uma]

Wouldn’t stand a chance, lay, lay, lay. Running on that funny stuff is a completely different ball game to European turf racing. No drug use. Would do well to do as well as Deep Impact did depending on the strength of this years Arc.

Curlin’s connections already showed their shrewdness in having prepared him for the Dubai World Cup using a prep over there although the race was run on the same dirt as in the States (incidentally, US dirt is totally different from Japanese one). In contrast, Deep Impact’s connections were too naive and inexperienced in their preparations, as was clearly shown in their memoir on their Arc disaster lately published (in Japanese).

Nevertheless, he could finish ahead of two major rivals in his first race in Europe which, as we all well know, was totally different–pace, surface, strategies, etc.—from those in Japan as well as in the States (the same, to the other direction, was the case with Ouija Board in the Japan Cup ’06 ). What is more, DI’s sire, which is also Natagora’s grandsire, used to be a dirt horse in America.

All these facts suggest that a very strong horse on any surface, if further strengthen with careful preparations, experienced staffs, and a bit of luck, could be triumphant on foreign soil. At this stage, I cannot deny that Curlin might have all these requisites for his Arc win. After all, he is the world best horse in training, isn’t he?

[Uma]

However, confidence has been slightly tempered by our Japanese poster’s comments that their horses have had a far from ideal preparation and may not ship in top form.
Can anybody shed any more light on the situation for me please?

First of all, a few facts: Iide Kenshin, Admire Aura, Vodka, and Vermilion left for Dubai as planned, and after one full day of transportation via Hong Kong they arrived in the UAE last weekend. Among them, Vermilion and Admire Aura had entered the international quarantine stables in Kyoto since 5 March while Vodka since 25 Feb (not sure about Iide Kenshin). This was of course a precaution against EI.

Please remember the UAE quarantine rule for Japanese horses; they must stay at infection-free facilities during at least 3 weeks before the departure. Observing a coming back of EI at one of major training facilities near Tokyo on 23 Feb, Vodka’s connections quickly decided to move to the safe area during the night on 25 Feb.

On the other hand, connections of Vermilion had delayed leaving his training centre (the same as with Vodka) for the stable to the very limit, in favour of being disqualified rather than being insufficiently prepared for the race. Surely it was a gamble, and yet they managed to escape just in time because on 13 March, about a week after the Vermilion’s move to quarantine, the infection fire arrived at where he had been, leaping across facilities.

So I would say Vermilion was very lucky and has been best prepared among the Japanese contenders while I have a doubt about Vodka’s form although racing papers unanimously said it was very good.

–From here down to the end, my dogmatic guess of Vermilion’s chance in the DWC–
Replying the same question in an interview with a Japanese racing magazine, Michael Kinane, the Irish jockey, told: ‘It depends on whom he compete against there.’ I think of it as a thoughtful, neutral assessment.

No doubt he is much better and stronger than a year before when he was walloped by Invasor, a 15 lengths’ defeat. This time the gap would be narrowed to 4-5 lengths, or hopefully less.

Having said that, our races on the dirt has been on a low level in comparison with turf. Also some influential Japanese trainers make comments that winning the DWC would need an exceptionally fast *turf* horse full of stamina. ‘It’s like a sprint race of 2000m.’ (M Kinane) Most of our dirt horses couldn’t keep up with the pace of the race.

Please see the RPRs of Vermilion’s recent races. I find it a relatively unbiased measure of Japanese horses, turf or dirt. Anyway, something like what occurred with Discreet Cat last year or Authorized in the Arc could happen to any horse this year. Who knows?

[Uma]

A minor, local, sporadic recurrence, I would say, but certainly it lingers.

The other Dubai-bound Japanese horses won’t be well-prepared for the graded international races.

[Uma]

Meisho Samson, 5yo, Opera House x My Vivien (Dancing Brave), called it off . The reason is a bit complicated.

First of all, his main target this season is a campaign in Europe; his connections have had a plan to stay there for a few months with the Arc his main target. Unfortunately, he couldn’t go out of Japan last year, because of the outbreak of EI. So, all the more this year, they have a desire to put the plan into practice.

Sadly, the epidemic has recurred, just after the announcement of his entry to the Sheema Classic, around the main training facilities in Japan at one of which the colt has had regular workouts.

A UAE quarantine rule for all the Dubai-bound Japanese horses demands the Opera House’s son should stay at infection-free facilities at least 3 weeks before the departure, which means he couldn’t be trained as usual using uphill woodchips courses in the infected training centre.

So his connections had no option but to stay at an international quarantine stable in Kyoto for about a month, accepting a limited, light workout regimen. That was obviously bad news; see Dylan Thomas’s bad shape in the Hong Kong Vase who had been locked in a similar quarantine facility before and after the Japan Cup.

Then came the last straw: Dubai-bound Japanese horses couldn’t charter a direct flight to the venue; they should take a longer trip via Hong Kong. For Samson, that’s enough. For almost the same reason, Matsurida Gogh cancelled it.

Anyway, competing in European G1s is his main objective this year. Also, he will stay there longer than Deep Impact in ’06, because he has no reason– or I should say ‘obligation’ as opposed to the latter– to go back to Japan within 2 months.

(*) Instead of Dubai, Samson may be pointed to the QII Cup in Hong Kong on 27 April, a recent report says.

[Uma]

From Japan the following five horses will start in Dubai; they’ll leave for Dubai on 15 and 22 March:

1. Vermilion, 6yo, Elcondo Pasa x Scarlet Lady (Sunday Silence)—>WORLD CUP
2. Vodka, 4yo, Tanino Gimlet x Tanino Sister (Rousillon)—>DUTY FREE
3. Admire Aura, 4yo, Agnes Tachyon x Biwa Heidi—->DUTY FREE
4. Agnes Jedi, 6yo, Agnes World x Lucky Pisces (Crafty Prospector)—> GOLDEN SHAHEEN
5. Iide Kenshin, 3yo, Thunder Gulch x Heavenly Advice (Theatrical)—->UAE DERBY

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