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Barring injuries, retirements or suspensions, is this year the first time ever that the reigning Champion jockey didn’t have a ride at the festival?
Coggy, i havent a statistical analysis either, just a perception I have that the irish programme is better designed to enable horses to run in top races more often.
In Ireland a horse at the top level can be guaranteed a solid opportunity, be it hurdles/fences at any of the 3 main distances at regular intervals throughout the season. Down Royal, tipperary, punchestown or Gowran in october if you want to get them out early – Then early late november/early december John Durkan, Hilly Way, Clonmel Oil, Hattons Grace, Morgiana, royal bond, drinmore, then leopardstown christmas, then dublin racing festival, then cheltenham, then punchestown, with the possibility of aintree or fairyhouse in between depending on the horse and the targets chosen.
In the UK its more random – long gap between Christmas and Cheltenham. Christmas programme is more spread out from the long walk to the tolworth. It must be more difficult for a trainer to train horse A to have to peak this week and horse B to have to peak in ten days time. In Ireland the trainer has all the big races concentrated on a day or two and can train all his top horses to peak together at Christmas and the DRF knowing that there is a race to suit them all. That must be easier.
I think it would actually benefit the UK trainers and horses to bring them to ireland for the DRF instead of staying in the stable, or going to a 4/5 runner alternatives at Haydock, warwick or Newbury. Surely the Irish horses due to racing in better races are more battle hardened going to cheltenham
You’ve suggested removing 4 grade 1’s and replacing them with a handicap? What’s your aim? It should be the pinnacle of racing not a place for more handicappers.
For what its worth if I had a free reign I’d remove the following races in order of priority:
1. Fred Winter – 95% of the horses in this race should not be have a handicap mark. If you want to win a handicap with your juvenile hurdler then go elsewhere. This race would be absolutely no loss whatsoever and would strengthen the triumph field
2. Martin Pipe – this is essentially the same race as the Coral cup except there are worse horses running in it with worse jockeys. The premium national hunt festival should not be a place for this. Removing this race would make the coral and county more competitive.
3. Kim Muir – this is essentially the same as the Ultima except there are worse horses running in it. Refer to Martin Pipe above
4. Mares Novice hurdle – if your mare is good enough she should be running in the supreme, ballymore or albert bartlett. If she isnt good enough for any of them, then the premium national hunt festival is not the place for her.
5. Champion bumper – is it really necessary? The purpose of bumpers are to give young horses racecourse experience, it should not be to give a high profile festival opportunity to a €400,000 winning pointer.
The remaining 23 races would have:
2 miles – novice hurdle, championship hurdle, novice chase, championship chase, handicap hurdle, handicap chase
2.5 miles – novice hurdle, mares hurdle, novice chase, championship chase, handicap hurdle, handicap chase
3 miles – novice hurdle, championship hurdle, novice chase, championship chase, handicap hurdle, handicap chaseTriumph Hurdle – not my favourite race, could easily be scrapped too but has a long history so just about survives.
4 miler – a championship race for the best in that discipline, but I’d return it to 4 miles and have it open to professional jockeys.
Cross Country – a championship race for the best in that discipline
Mares Chase – Probably lucky to make the cut, but worth seeing how it pans out for a couple of years.
Foxhunters – 1. Id return the word foxhunters to the title and damn anyone who wasn’t happy with it. 2. I’d come up with some type of condition that would prevent the likes of Mullins and other top trainers and owners from being able to run horses in it. Its a race for the little guy.Possibly something to do with there only being 2 Irish trained horses in the race. Although the UK have a pretty solid record in it either way.
I’d be also interested in hearing a logical explanation from the handicapper as to how he came to give this horse a mark of 147 for twice beating a horse rated 67 on the flat.
In fairness Botchy that race is only open to horses who were entered at Cheltenham but who didn’t make the final cut for any of the races. Because less horses in total were entered and ran at Cheltenham, a consequence is that first race at kempton really suffers.
Leaving aside the lack of grade 1 quality contenders in the UK, the issue for UK handicappers is the ratings are very inflated. The information below paints the picture.
Here is what I wrote after the King George…
I haven’t posted in a long time but something really interested me yesterday. The ratings of the horses running in the King George as compared with the ratings of the horses running in the Savills tomorrow in Leopardstown. In my view they are all over the place, and its no wonder that irish horses can come over to the uk and win more than a fair share of handicaps. When you look at the ratings awarded to the top horses, this surely has an impact on the ratings given to horses in the 140-160 bracket also.
King George:
Cyrname 176
Santini 172
Clan Des Obeaux 171
Lost in Translation 171
Frodon 168
Saint Calvados 167
Waiting Patiently 163
Real Steel 163Savills:
Delta Work 170
Presenting Percy 169
Kemboy 168
A Plus Tard 167
Minella Indo 165
Allaho 160
Easy Game 160
Fakir D’Oudairies 160
Samcro 160
Tornado Flyer 160
Melon 159I think any fair minded supporter could recognise that the savills is a far better race on paper than the king george yet the king george horses are rated significantly higher
Just in relation to prize money, I think it’s a bit of a smoke screen really.
I think we can all agree that prize money for maidens and novice races is irrelevant to an owner willing to pay 300,000 for a horse. Whether they win €10,000 for a maiden or £5,000, it’s not going to be a deciding factor behind where a billionaire put a horse in training.
So let’s look at the pre Cheltenham prize money at the top:
UK
Betfair – 90,000
Fighting 5th – 45,000
Henry 8th – 25,000
Tingle Creek – 68,000
Long walk – 45,000
Kauto star – 45,000
Christmas hurdle – 59,000
King george – 116,000
Finale – 28,000
Challow – 22,000
Tolworth – 19,000
Clarence house – 59,000
Scilly isles – 20,000
Ascot chase – 59,000Ireland
(1st place prizes converted to Pounds)Down Royal – 62,000
Morgiana – 50,000
Royal bond – 35,000
Drinmore – 35,000
Hattons grace – 60,000
John Durkan – 40,000
Racing Post – 40,000
Limerick – 40,000
Paddy’s rewards – 50,000
Future champs – 40,000
Christmas hurdle – 50,000
Savills – 75,000
Matteson – 51,600
Neville’s – 40,000
Lawlors – 41,000
Golden Cygnet – 62,000
Dublin Chase – 62,000
Irish Arkle – 62,000
Irish Champion hurdle – 73,000
Spring juvenile – 62,000
Chanelle – 62,000
Pj moriarty – 62,000
Gold cup – 96,320So let’s look a few comparisons
– Fighting 5th v Morgiana only £5,000 more in Ireland
– Betfair chase v John Durkan £50,000 more in UK
– tingle Creek v 2m Leopardstown: UK higher again
– long walk v leop Christmas hurdle £5k more in Ireland.
– king george v savills 41k more in UK.The main difference is there are more top races in Ireland, a more structured program and better grade 1 options for novice hurdlers.
There are only two grade 1 novice hurdles in the UK before the Cheltenham festival. Those 2 races (challow and tolworth) have a combined first prize of 41,000, and are run within a couple of days of each other. Neither suit 2 mile novices because the tolworth is usually run in a quagmire and no use whatsoever to prepare or gauge a horses real ability. And neither suit 3 mile horses either.
Basically the uk novices (unless a trainer is willing to bring them to Ireland) have hardly any opportunities to run in a proper top class novice race.
By the way – Irish trained horses won ALL of the hurdle races at this year’s festival.
The other issue I see is the handicapping system – Solo of Paul Nicholls being a prime example last season….beat a few pretty bang average juveniles at kempton and was given a mark of 157. This type of absurd handicapping is repeated hundreds of times in the UK throughout the NH season and really gets exposed at Cheltenham, not only in the handicaps themselves but in the grade 1 races where UK horses often fail to justify their ratings.
The issue is far greater than prize money.
Too much hype about these UK horses based on egg and spoon races.
Champ 1 run this season, beat greaneteeen by the equivalent of 5 lengths in his only start in open company yet people pile in behind.
Royale Pagaille won a couple of handicaps and a terrible race at haydock yet he was priced at one stage at 8/1
Lost in translation completed 2 races this season and was beaten by a total of 73 lengths
Santini is clearly nothing like the horse he was last year.
Frodon best of a bad lot, performed ok today too.
The ability of UK based National Hunt jockeys to judge the pace of a race has been badly exposed at Cheltenham this year
Better trainers, more success at festivals. Prize money is only slightly better in Ireland at the top contrary to popular belief, and they spend hundreds of thousands on buying these horses so i dont think it really matters to them if a novice hurdle in ireland pays out a few grand more than in the UK.
May also be something to do with the tax system. I don’t know all the ins and outs of it really but perhaps its a contributory factor.
Its not just cheveley park either. Ronnie Bartlett, Joe Donnelly, Rich Ricci, The Potts Family in recent years, Jared O’Sullivan in recent years…all people who dont live in Ireland but see Ireland as their best option from a jump racing point of view, probably plenty of others too.
Looking at the Cheltenham results its embarrassing for the UK trainers. And its not just the big Irish trainers winning everything. Plenty of lesser heralded Irish trainers have won too:
Paul Nolan, Paul Hennessey, Peter Fahey, Gavin Cromwell, Emmett Mullins, Ian FergusonNo sign of a Nicholls horse even being competitive, Fry, Skelton, Pipe, King, Tizzard, Twiston Davis, O’Brien, Evan Williams, Phillip Hobbs, Gary Moore, Donald McCain, Venetia Williams, Ben Pauling, Kim Bailey….no where to be seen bar the odd place effort here or there.
Leaving aside their lack of quality in the grade ones, they cant even get horses well handicapped it seems
My thoughts:
Al Boum Photo – Obviously solid and deserving favourite. My fear is that this race might be run much more strongly than the two previous years and I’m not sure that will suit him.
A Plus Tard – I can see why he’s in as a main danger. Connections in form. Think he might be just a little below what’s needed to win. Place prospects.
Aso – No hope
Black Op – No hopeChamp – bit of an enigma really. Allaho franked last year’s form I suppose but I would have my doubts about him.
Frodon – very good course form, got a bit of a freebie in the King George because the standard was so poor but can see him leading around the home turn and we will see then if he has the stamina needed. It’s a different story beating handicappers.
Kemboy – another enigma of a horse. Has ran in this twice previously. Again I think he needs to be able to dictate up front and don’t think he will be able to. Has the ability to win this I think but everything has to go perfectly.
Lostintranslation – No hope
Minella Indo – Disappointing season so far, but really the type to do well today and be right there in the shake up at the end.
Native River – will lead them a strong gallop with Frodon and for a long time will look like the Native river of 2018 but can see him fading to finish 4th or 5th.
Royale Pagaille – vastly overrated based on his last performance. Won in the slop in haydock against a very average field.
Santini – they will go way to fast for him. Very similar to Don Poli.
My prediction top 5
Minella Indo
Al Boum Photo
A Plus Tard
Kemboy
Native River
