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Few more Mullins grade 1 winning mares that I had forgotten yesterday – Airlie Beach, Tarla, Adrianna Des Mottes and True Self.
Tatling – more fool them…none of those mares have won a race under Nicholls. The Sullivan’s have won a grand total of 3 races this entire season, all of them in maiden hurdles back in the autumn.
The stormy Ireland one is easy to explain.
Jumping fences out of heavy ground obviously didn’t suit her. Back to Ireland and runs on good ground over hurdles, being allowed to dictate from the front in a weakish race.
I am open to correction on this but I’ve done my research as best I can. I found that Paul Nicholls has never NEVER trained a mare to wn a grade 1. Nor has he ever trained a mare to win ANY race at the Cheltenham, Aintree or Punchestown festivals.
I could only find one example of him winning a grade 2 with a mare and that was earlier this season.Compare his record with mares to that of Mullins – Quevega, Annie Power, Apples Jade, Glens Melody, Let’s Dance, Vroum Vroum Mag, Limini, Whiteout, Benie Des Dieux, Gitane Du Berlais, burning victory, eglantine du seuil, relegate, petite parisienne, concertista….they are just the grade 1 or cheltenham winners I can think of
Botchy excellent point, I’ve always thought the same.
More races in UK means more winners in more diluted races, which means more horses getting steep handicap rises.
I picked a random week to check- 14th December to 20th December. In that week there were 52 National hunt handicap races in the UK. In the same time period there were 10 in Ireland.
If the average rise of a winner is 7 pounds, then that means 52 UK horses went up an average of 7 pounds, compared to only 10 irish winners rises.
That race at the Dublin racing festival is a perfect case in point.
Minella Times second, raised 4 pounds – won Grand National
Livelovelaugh third, raised 2 pounds – won Topham
Farclas fourth, raised 1 pound – 2nd @ Cheltenham, 5th Grand National
Scoir Mear fifth, left alone – won Leinster NationalNow instead of all of those running against each other and placing in the same race, lets imagine what would have happened if those 4 horses had been trained one each in the UK by Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Dan Skelton. Here’s my guess…
– Jonjo would have sent his to Doncaster, beat a few rags by 10 lengths and got a 14 pound rise
– Nicholls would have sent his to Ascot, won by half the track, got a rating of 160 and run him in a grade 1
– Skelton would have sent his to Warwick, then done the same.
– Henderson would have sent his to Kempton for a 4 runner conditions race, again won by half the track and a stone rise.So now in this scenario, all would have won average races by impressive distances, got ridiculous handicap marks and blown any chance they had of winning a big handicap. Meanwhile 4 equivalent horses in ireland are racing against each other and only 1 can get the winners rise.
I know this example is hypothetical but i think it illustrates a potential reason for Irish horses dominating big festival handicaps in recent years. Its not like the successful irish horses in the grand national and topham were hiding out the back in their previously races. They have been openly campaigned in good races.
Irish trained 10 of the first 11.
Just look at some of the marks the UK horses were expected to run off and laugh…
Firstly the obvious one, i know he wasnt running off it, but Cloth Cap has just made a mockery of the handicapper thinking he is a 162 horse.Yala Enki – 159
Ballyoptic – 157
Defintely Red – 157
Mr Malarky – 155
Kimberlite Candy – 155
Ok Corral – 151
Taking Risks – 150IF all of those horses were dropped 10lbs they might be competitive. Mad ratings
Well with that result he might well have just over taken Nicky Henderson. Probably still too far behind Nicholls now to make a really good challenge at the UK title
You must have been looking at a different race.
Kennedy tried his best to make the running, wasn’t able to go the pace, Kennedy allowed him to go around at the pace he was able, and he stayed on well past tired horses who had fallen in a hole due to the pace.
I don’t think he wasnt trying, he was just in the wrong race.
Had previously shown a liking for the National fences, an ability to place in big field handicaps… Even without the benefit of hindsight, many people obviously had the view that he was a very solid each way bet, in what looked to be an average enough field.
The key point in the race however was the dreadful mistakes made simultaneously by two other horses at the front. They hampered others in behind and left LLL so far clear that he was able to take a breather at a very important time while the others were busy trying to make up the lost ground.
That’s the bit of luck you need to turn a placed effort into a win.
I dont think he has found a massive amount of improvement, possibly a few pounds but thats not unreasonable when you consider how well he jumps those unique fences. I do think he was on a fair rating going into the race, but some of the UK horses were badly rated in comparison to him. He has previously shown a liking for the national fences finishing 11th in the Grand national “Tracked leaders, upsides 18th, close 4th 24th (2nd Valentine’s), ridden approaching 2 out, soon weakened” – so although he liked the jumping part, he couldnt stay 4 miles 2. the topham was therefore ideal for him.
If that same race had been run over the mildmay course i dont think he’d have won it. A few things went well for him in the race as i have said.
The problem now is that Livelovelaugh will probably be raised 8/9 lbs to about 154. That will not solve the issue. It will mean that LLL will never win a handicap again, but a different Irish trained horse will do the same again next year.
The handicapper will treat the symptom rather than the illness. The illness is that the UK horses are too high. Magic Saint at 157, Ibleo at 157 mad stuff.
Having said all that, its not unusual for both UK or irish trained horses to master the national course like that
This horse has run in 14 handicap chases, 4 of them in the UK, has been openly campaigned, came second and third in very competitive and valuable handicaps.
Was running today off his highest ever rating at the age of 11. He isn’t some sort of unexposed novice who has been secretly campaigned.
He clearly loves jumping those type of fences, and got a handy lead due to simultaneous bad jumps by 2 of the other horses in the lead.
But just look at some of the ratings the UK horses were expected to run off. ibleo 157…madness.
Monmiral rated 147 – Ridiculous.
Might well win today but a mark of 147 after 3 runs in rubbish juvenile hurdles is bonkers.
They have had 2 years to get tiger rolls mark down. He has ran 6 times since last winning the national.
Twice over hurdles
Three times Cross Country
Once on the flatThe handicapper cannot drop a 4 mile chaser for performing poorly in a 2.5 mile hurdle or a 1.75 mile flat race.
If their aim was to get tiger roll a lower mark for a 3rd national then they havek failed miserably in their choices of races for him.
Ones in Ireland that come to mind –
Irish National at Fairy house
Connacht National at Roscommon
Ulster National at Downpatrick
Munster National at Limerick
Leinster National at NaasCork National at Cork
Mayo National at Ballinrobe
Kerry National at Listowel
Midlands National at KilbegganGray Wolf River might be the horse your thinking of. Trained by a Mr R Harper, came 5th of 5 in Yanworths Christmas hurdle win.
Without lots of Irish runners coming over those Aintree grade 1s are looking pretty poor.
Not sure of the merits of having a ratings cut off though.
Hypothetical example, let’s say you had a novice hurdler who wants good ground but the winter is very wet and there are no options to run on anything other than soft or heavy. Might achieve a rating of 125 on that ground. But on proper good ground like at Aintree he might be 20/25 pounds better.
Where would you put your cut off?
Correct the Tatling…the majority of Graham Lee’s 1,800+ winners have come in National Hunt races. Although he hasn’t ridden in a National Hunt race this season yet, he won a bumper last season.
Corkallstar – Davy has over 1,500 and hopefully will be able to get back and add a few more.
At current pace Brian Hughes is likely to overtake Scudamore in about a years time.
Top 3 –
Lee
Russell
Scudamore
