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Stilvi, it’s not a matter of having a horse that is not a natural two miler and getting away with it. The horse has the pace for 2m and the stamina for further, and my point was that that is a blend which has served Mullins well in the past. So that likely comes into his thinking when aiming something at the Supreme.
I wouldn’t say he is trying to ‘get away with it’. He fits the mould of the type horse Mullins has had success with in the Supreme in the past. Of Mullins’ last five winners of the race only Douvan could really be described as a two miler, and Ballyburn has shown superior form over the minimum than Appreciate It, Klassical Dream or Champagne Fever had before their victories.
On the Fact To File one, I wonder how much it has to do with the return of Iroko into the Turners picture for JP. Would agree the Turners looks made for Fact To File. With Gaelic Warrior, very hard to keep a horse that jumps a fence that well over hurdles for an extra season. I’d say as soon as they schooled him the Stayers Hurdle was out of their minds.
Not as many ante posts as I used to have, here is a run down of them, a mixed bag.
The good…
NH Chase – Embassy Gardens 3pts win 11/4The bad…
Turners – Gaelic Warrior 1pt win 11/4
Mares – Gala Marceau 1pt ew 8/1 NRNBThe indifferent…
Bartlett – Lecky Watson 1pt ew 25/1
Gold Cup – Gentlemansgame 1pt ew 25/2
Bumper – C’est Ta Chance 0.5pt win 20/1 NRNBI’m on the sense in that I can see the argument both ways, he just looks a better horse at wither trip than the likely opposition, and is the likely winner whatever way he goes.
I don’t know if the Supreme will be much better than the race at the DRF really, you’ll have Tullyhill/Mystical Power potentially, and Jeriko Du Reponet, but not much else there.
I take a higher view of the Slade Steel form, actually have backed Lecky Watson for the Bartlett.
I have enjoyed the back and forth here. I’m pretty much on the fence but I can see the argument to stick to 2m with Ballyburn. He’s beaten most of the Irish novices all ends up at the DRF with the exception of his two stablemates Tullyhill and Mystical Power. Tullyhill would need to brush up on his jumping and I think he looks more of an Un Atout or Tell Us More that type could run in the first five or six but will likely be outpaced in the finish. Mystical Power is the more interesting of that pair and would be the one I’d consider to take on the favourite with but at the moment that wouldn’t be a strong opinion.
Using the bumper form with Slade Steel as a measure of Slade Steel closing the gap with Ballyburn is dangerous imo as the gap was never likely all that much; he was poorly placed in that bumper and raced four or five wide from the back straight in Punchestown all the way into the straight, whereas Ballyburn was in the box seat throughout.
I’m a big Slade Steel fan and jumping the usual two out in Leopardstown he was right on Ballyburn’s heels but he couldn’t live with the speed of Ballyburn as he quickened away from him to the bypassed final hurdle. From there on the gap didn’t get any wider as Stilvi has said. I don’t agree that Ballyburn was running out of gas at the finish due to being asked to race at too fast a pace for the race, to me he looked to be travelling comfortably throughout. He has plenty of pace and could win the Supreme in the same fashion as a Vautour or Klassical Dream. I’d say he only did as much as he was asked to in the finish and if something had been good enough to come with him he’d likely have gone on again. I would think Slade Steel has very little chance of reversing form with him over two miles but I could see why connections would be hopeful he’d at least close the gap over 2m 5f if they reopposed over that distance.
As is often the case when there is a standout novice it’s likely Ballyburn can win either race (Vautour and Faugheen would both have won if they had been swapped, Douvan would have won the Baring Bingham in his year etc).
Should Ballyburn go to the Supreme Slade Steel will be the horse to beat here and should be a backable price with the likes of Ile Atlantique in opposition.
I thought when William Munny edged out C’est Ta Chance at Navan last month that they were potentially two very smart horses. William Munny backed up that impression yesterday when readily winning what looked a good bumper at Naas. If he was going to Cheltenham he’d surely be in the first few in the market but it appears he won’t be travelling. As such I had a small interest in C’est Ta Chance at 20/1 NRNB in the aftermath of yesterday’s race.
Well done for running this over the years VTC, always keeps the interest going through the season
Allaho
Appreciate It
Bravemansgame
Constitution Hill
Energumene
Facile Vega
Jonbon
Journey With Me
State Man
VaubanJanidil placed returns 1.7
Banntown Girl placed returns 1.7
Sea Ducor placed returns 2.2+1.4
Very disappointed with Capodanno falling, I thought he was a clear second best beforehand and on a line through Gaillard Du Mesnil you’d like to think he would have been second.
Tomorrow I think Pats Fancy might turn over Bravemansgame in receipt of 16 lbs. It’s been well documented that the Nicholls yard are in poor form and Pats Fancy put up a career best last time at Chepstow.
Sceaux Royal has been given a bit of a break after a busy autumn and he is potentially a cut above these at if back to something like his best. He was very unlucky in last season’s Champion Chase and with Editeur De Gite now out of the race he is worth a bet at 9/4.
A few nice horses at Naas tomorrow too. Journey With Me is my idea of the Ballymore winner but faces a good horse in O’Toole while Brazil is one I have been keeping an eye on for a while, he is one who could improve for the application of cash
Newbury 13:15 – Pats Fancy 1 pt win 4/1
Newbury 15:00 – Sceaux Royal 1 pt win 9/4-0.6
Some more selections for today, unfortunately not much time for a write up:
12:45 – Banntown Girl 0.5pt e/w 12/1 5 places
14:25 – Max Flamingo 1pt e/w 11/2 5 places
16:10 – Sea Ducor 1pt e/w 6/1 5 placesLooking at Sunday’s card and the standout bet is Capodanno for me. He gave Bob Olinger a real fright turning in at Punchestown last time and left Gaillard Du Mesnil and some smart horses 27+ lengths behind. Galopin Des Champs looks a star but if he is not at his best then Capodanno is definitely the one I like to take advantage, as well as looking a huge price at 4/1 in the without market.
Leop 13:20 (Sun) – Capodanno 1 pt win 4/1 (without fav)
Leop 13:20 (Sun) – Capodanno 1 pt win 7/1 (3 place insurance)-4.2
I think Capodanno is in danger of being underrated having been beaten by Bob Olinger last time out. He gave Bob more of a fright than anything since Ferny Hollow beat him and pulled a long, long way clear of the remainder. I think he could be very smart and prices of 10/1 e/w and 4/1 without the favourite are very generous. He is actually 7/1 with 3 place insurance with Betfair Sportsbook, I have taken that and the 4/1 without.
Fils Dor impressed me a mt Christmas and will be hard to beat but I thought Vauban was desperately unlucky against Pied Piper at Punchestown and is worth a go to turn over the favourite, he could be a bit special.
Leop 13:35 – Vauban 1 pt win 9/4
In the novice chase I like Haut En Colours but from a price perspective I feel the mare Riviere D’Etele should really be shorter and outright favourite. The form with Ferny Hollow sets a very high standard here.
Leop 14:10 – Riviere D’Etel 1 pt win 2/1
Priory Park was your typical JP handicap winner at Christmas, winning more cosily than the winnjng margin suggested and I think be can defy a 10 lb rise in the handicap and go in again.
Leop 14:45 – Priory Park 0.5 pt e/w 7/1 (7 places)
In the big race, the Irish Gold Cup, I have come down on the side of Janidil. My first impressions of the Savills Chase was that Janidil didn’t stay, and thay may well be the case. However, he finished extremely tired looking behind Allaho in what was a gruelling John Durkan on his comeback run and I just wonder if he hadn’t got over that completely. As such I think he is worth another go at this trip.
Leop 15:15 – Janidil 0.5 pt e/w 12/1 (3 places)
-2.2
Nice post re Midnight Shadow VTC – he was a real favourite of mine too. I didn’t see the race live and didn’t want to see a replay. Latest Exhibition earlier in the season was another tough one.
PS your Stattler bet looks very good now
Thanks Bobby, I saw you had him also so well done. He never really threatened to land a blow but wasn’t beaten all that far in the finish, there could be another handicap in him.
1.8
Have backed the two Evan Williams runners in the Lanzarote today: Dans La Vent and Bold Plan. They have being going in different directions in the handicap this season. Dans La Vent has looked better than ever and actually ran a very good race last time despite finishing last of four finishers, behind Stormy Ireland at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Thankfully he did not get a rise in the weights after that despite his close proximity to some good horses. I think the conditions of the race will suit him, he’ll be staying on from off the pace and with the extra places is a good each way bet at 12/1.
Bold Plan has been dropped 10 lbs in his last three starts and is now fitted with first time cheekpieces. Williams has stated they have had this in mind for some time so at 25/1 I will have a small play also.
14:40 Kempton – Dans La Vent, 1 pt e/w 12/1 (6 places)
14:40 Kempton – Bold Plan, 0.5 pt e/w 25/1 (6 places)-2
