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Hi Davejay,
I thought my comments were very constructive, they offered an opportunity for individuals to relieve themselves from the inane.
You have not grasped the nettle but don’t speak for everyone OLDBEAN.
Garstonf
VDW stated that it was the C/F horse that seldom failed to capture the prize when it was big enough .
Glad your thinking about it though. What will you do?
Some people don’t half talk some DRIVEL on here.
"When we bet on a horse at evens, we have no idea what the true odds are because they cannot be known. All we have is the historical data that every horse in history that was sent off at evens won X% of races."
No wonder that with the information that you suppose "is all thats available" you end up debating the relevence and importance of lucK And how to calculate and make an allowance for it.
My GOD
class tells
That attitude (2 horses – hopefully 42%) will ensure that your attempts to solve the conundrum of VDW will end in failure.
Therein lies the problem,
1) No records commercially available will provide the data required to identify the consistent horses in the races under review.
2) No person is about to openly discuss the appropriate approach to enable one to correctly calculate the figure.
Wheldon proves the figures are incorrect(fabulous research back to 78), those in the know typically dont want to educate the missinformed.
Next we shall hear that a horses with figures 3 3 3 dont win 99% of the time
where are Fulham, Stone and Johnd?
Cant believe they would miss a good VDW chat. They must all be busy making it pay.
And Guest as well, where is Hedgehog?
Class Tells,
Hello, why did you feel the need to change VDW’s approach?
Wasn’t the method you partly describe not working for you his way?
Hi Pipedreamer,
Please can you post some 100% strike rate bets please, you know like you used to, if its not to much trouble.
Hi Crock,
Thanks for the good wishes, I am coming to terms with it as best as one can with these things. They were dark days indeed Crock. It permeated all aspects of my life, which I didn’t expect or was prepared for.
With the Framed weights VDW claimed 75% of the winners carried less than 11-5 so perhaps the figures need combining? and the one advantage gained by being a smaller share of an even percentage is totally outdone by the other.
Hello Lee, hope you are keeping well also
hi Crock ,
If the framed weight is Is 0-145 and then the top 10 rated horses from the entry make a decision not to run then the bottom half of the framed weights is largely intact. Saying as much could mean that the actual race contains three quarters of the runners(or whatever) are from the bottom half of the framed weights.
This could have been of significance to VDW when he considered how a trainer was placing his horses, through the medium of the race entries or the "races to come" section.
Using a topical horse (RG) then when he was entered at the top of the handicap, VDW knowing that 50% come from the bottom of the framed weights, perhaps the alarm bells would have been ringing last Wednesday, and he perhaps would have been surprised/disappointed at Stout standing his ground.
MTOTO,
hello again old friend.
The para you mention, was given "again" by VDW in relation to setting up the second numerical picture in the chapter MYTH OF THE MISSING LINK., That was the first of "a couple of clues". The second "clue" to the second numerical picture, as given by VDW is as follows.
"You should not need to be reminded that the class against which a horse runs is not the same as the class of race in which they compete"
Here is my Tuppence worth
" A variety of excuses has been used to mask failure with my methods- the "key, the "last piece of the jigsaw", the "missing link" all come down to the same thing.Many create the initial numerical picture and say they are stuck and don’t know how to select one from the three probables.
Hey Colin, thanks for the welcome.
DaveJohnson hello, I am new here.
I am the real Barney, I am assuming by your comments that may be reffering to my namesake Mr Curley.
I would point you in the direction of a horse of his "Cristoforo" which was "on occasion" highly consistent. One of two Curley horses I have backed over the years.
At a personal Level Curley has since 1996 secured funding and provided relief for many Zambesian projects and people, consistently putting in his own money and consistently encouraging others to do likewise.
