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MIDTERM BREAK flagged up in a post on 22nd April WON at Southwell on Wednesday 30th a very short price but a winner all the same!!
RUNNERS TODAY:
DRAGLINE runs at 1.55 at Thirsk in the 5f Maiden drawn 2 can be a disadvantage at this track.
QUEENS PARK runs at 5.50 at Thirsk this looks a hotter race than the Newcastle maiden as with all these maidens when judging them in the paddock, it all depends on what else turns up on the day, but physically she looked like she was strong enough to win a race, whether it be soon or when she goes handicapping.
2 of my 2 year old eyecatchers from last year are running today at Newmarket HOT STREAK a horse i was really impressed with physically runs at 2.40 current price 5-1 and THE GREY GATSBY a big strong grey Kevin Ryan horse has a huge task running in the 2000 Guineas at 3.50 current price 50-1
Maiden Eyecatchers ive seen in the last week are:
Ripon Saturday 26th SATELLITE a 3 year old trained by W. Haggas ridden by G Gibbons, nice looking type in the paddock, this colt was slowly away, then pulled hard mid race which often leads to a horse having little left at the end of a race, but this horse found plenty and won easily pulling away – one to follow!
Pontefract Wednesday 30th April FIRGROVE BRIDGE a typical Kevin Ryan sprinting 2 year old, nice strong colt who caught the eye physically in the paddock, but did appear a bit immature and was sweating up, however did look to settle at the start, ridden by Paul Mulrennan showed plenty of speed going on to win, one that may go on to win more races, one to follow
In the same Pontefract race a really good looking filly caught my eye in the parade ring ZEELA trained by Tim Easterby ridden by Duran Fentiman unlike Firgrove Bridge she was calm and in the parade ring but a real eyecatcher physically she dwelt in the stalls but travelled strongly to finish close second, i feel she will win races.
In the last week there wasnt anything that caught my eye until Ripon on Thursday there were two horses i liked in the 5f 2 year old maiden, the going was good.
MIDTERM BREAK trained by David Barron ridden by G. Gibbons, a nice strong colt, ran promising to finish second and is one to consider in a similar race.
COLLOSIUM trained by M. Dodds ridden by Connor Beasley really caught my eye in the paddock a nice strong type who ticked lots of the boxes, had a disadvantaged draw but ran on well to finish close third, looks the type who could do well in sprint races at a similar level
Welcome to the start of my 2014 reports on maidens and 2 year olds, i am a paddock judge and i will be reporting on horses i see in the paddock that have obvious potential showing physical strength and mental maturity and are most likely to go on to win, last year of all the horses i mentioned 50% went on to win, one of my strongest selections that i flagged up the first time i saw him was Astaire who won the Gimcrack at 5-1 and the Middle Park at 8-1 with another on of my selections second in the Middle Park Hot Streak.
This year i will be listing the horses i see that i think will go on to win, those i think are extra special i will mark with a ** as i did with Astaire, you can make sure you dont miss any by putting them in a tracker system like the one on Attheraces site.
The first one for my list is QUEENS PARK a 3 year old filly trained by John Davies ridden by P.J. McDonald she ran in the Fillies Maiden at Newcastle on Saturday 1m going was recorded as Soft, however jockeys said it was very testing, she is a nice big strong type and i think she will go on to win a race, she looked like she could do with the race and raced prominently and finished 5th.
Another one for the list is DRAGLINE a good looking colt trained by Tim Easterby ridden by David Allen at Redcar on Monday in the 5f Maiden race, going good to soft, he finished down the field having dwelt at the start, but physically looks like a type to go on to win a race.
I wont be putting up any more jumps posts this season, after a short break, i will be reporting on the 2 year old maidens as i did last year where 50% of the horses i flagged up that should win races did so.
At CARLISLE trainers that do best here are: Sue Smith D.McCain,
J. Ewart, L. Russell A Swinbank A. Hamilton and N. RichardsThe horse i like best is TUTCHEC at 3.35
AT Ffos Las trainers that do best are: JonJo O Neill, N Twiston Davies, A.Honeyball, P.Hobbs, V. Williams Ian Williams
Im interested in JUMPS UP e.w. at 4.55 and VODKAONTHEROCKS at 5.25
At CHELTENHAM TODAY
Horses i like best are:
1.30 CALIPTO AND ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR E.W.
2.40 KINGS PALACE, with APACHE JACK e.w.
4.00 HARBOUR COURT and CERTAIN FLIGHT e.w.
4.40 THE SKYFARMER e.w.
5.15 NEXT SENSATION e.w.
Yesterday 1 WINNER, 2 VERY CLOSE SECONDS BEATEN IN PHOTOS, AND A 11-1 3RD.
Today at Cheltenham the horses that im most interested in are:
1.30 FELIX YOUNGER
2.05 JOSIES ORDERS E.W.
2.40 MEDERMIT E.W AT HUGE PRICE
4.00 SHANGANI E.W. AND FIRTH OF THE CLYDE E.W.
4.40 TWIRLING MAGNET E.W. BUDDY BOLERO E.W. LOST GLORY E.W. AT A MASSIVE PRICE
At CHELTENHAM today i dont have one strong selection but the ones im considering are:
1.30 FAUGHEEN, LIEUTENANT COLONEL e.w. at a huge price e.w.CREEPY
2.05 SMAD PLACE e.w.
2.40 DEL ARCA and BAYAN e.w.
4.00 ANY CURRENCY e.w.
5.15 STACK THE DECK e.w at huge price and KILLULTAGH VIC
CHELTENHAM
Todays trends:
Supreme: All 18 horses that had their last run in a handicap have been beaten
Arkle All 10 winners had run a maximum of 4 times over fences or less
2.40 Handicap chase All last 10 winners carried 11-02 or less
The ones i like best today are:
IRVING
HURRICAN FLY
TRIFOLIUM
SHUTTHEFRONTDOORAt MARKET RASEN trainers that do best are: C.Longsdon, J.Jo O’Neill,
N. Henderson, K. Bailey, P.Hobbs, V Dartnell, A.Honeyball, A.BrewerThe horse i like best at Market Rasen is ORANGE NASSAU at 3.10
At WARWICK trainers i like best are: Alan King, N. Henderson, S. West, R.Walford, R. Matthew, C. Bailey
The horse i like best is GOLAN WAY at 5.20
CHELTENHAM STATISTICS
In the last 10 years no female runner has won a Grade 1 chase
All winners of Grade 1 chases in the last 10 years had a break since their previous run of at least 16 days
The favourite hasnt won the Coral Cup in the last 10 years
1 WINNER mentioned yesterday
Today i really dont like the racing, lots of amateur riders, hunter chases and small fields.
MORE INTERESTING CHELTENHAM FACTS
6 of David Pipe’s 7 festival handicap winners have carried 10st.12 or less.
In the last 10 years no handicap winner has been ridden by a claimer claiming more than 5lbs
Since 1995 all winning favourites of the world hurdle had won the race before.
At CARLISLE trainers that do well are: D. McCain, S. Coultherd, S. Smith, S. Crawford A. Swinbank
No strong fancies today but a couple worth a closer look are: LITTLE BOY BORU at 2.10 SNUKER at 2.40 with HIDDEN HORIZONS the main danger, and SUDSI STAR at 3.45 at a big price may be worth a look for any market moves.
CHELTENHAM INTERESTING POINTERS:
18 OF THE LAST 19 RUNNERS OF THE NEPTUNE HAD WON LAST TIME OUT
20 OF THE LAST 24 CHAMPTION HURDLE WINNERS HAD WON LAST TIME OUT
THE CORAL CUP HAS BEEN WON BY ONLY ONE OUTRIGHT FAVOURITE IN 20 YEARS
1 WINNER Monday!
At CATTERICK trainers that do best are: D.McCain, A. Swinbank,
K. Reveley, M.Hammond, W.KinseyNo strong selection but the horse i like best today is: MOLLY CAT at 5.15 catterick.
INTERESTING CHELTENHAM STATISTICS:
Since 2009 Paul Nichols has had 63 losing chasers at the festival his last winner over chases was : KAUTO STAR IN THE 2009 GOLD CUP
12 OF THE LAST 14 RSA CHASE WINNERS HAVE BEEN AGED 7
BOBS WORTH HAS A RECORD OF 5 OUT OF 5 AT CHELTENHAM
WILLIE MULLINS IS COMING TO CHELTENHAM WITH HIS BIGGEST EVER TEAM OF RUNNERS – APART FROM HURRICANE FLY AND QUEVEGA TWO THIRDS OF HIS PREVIOUS CHELTENHAM WINNERS WERE IN BUMPERS, NOVICE HURDLES AND NOVICE CHASES.
At SOUTHWELL trainers that do best are: JonJo O’Neill, T.Vaughan, T. George, S. Gollings, C. Bealby
No strong selection today horses im interested in are: GALWAY JACK at 2.30 and WALTER DE LA MARE at 4.35
BETWEEN NOW AND CHELTENHAM I WILL BE LISTING SOME INTERESTING POINTERS
ONLY 2 OF THE NEPTUNE WINNERS HAVE BEEN AGED OLDER THAN 6 IN 43 RUNNINGS!!!
15 OF THE PAST 18 WINNERS OF THE BYRNE GROUP PLATE HAVE CARRIED 10ST 10LB OR LESS
24 OF THE LAST 25 WINNERS OF THE ARKLE CHASE FINISHED IN TOP 2 IN ALL COMPLETED CHASE STARTS
At DONCASTER trainers that do best here are: N. Henderson, P. Nichols, E. Lavelle, B. Ellison, T. Coyle
At NEWBURY trainers that do best here are: P. Nichols, R. Walford,
R. Lee, C. Longsdon, K. BaileyAt KELSO trainers i like best are: D.McCain, N. Richards, Sue Smith, S. Coulthard, S. Crawford, P. Griffin
The horse i like best today is TIQUIS running at Newbury at 3.15
Im also interested in FRIZZO e.w.at Newbury 2.05 and MISTER JONES e.w at Kelso 4.40
