Forum Replies Created
- Posts
froddo, I’m a writer and researcher but not a statistician.
Linking the results to ratings would not be of great help unless you also wanted to factor in all the other variables: track preference, going, general race conditions (the pace it was run at, the sectionals etc) and, not least, the price.
I agree that ROI can be very unstable hence the mention of strike rate too in each case.
Pinza wrote
"Where is your evidence to demonstrate that the spectacle of either the 2009 or this year’s renewal of a race which is always a gruelling test is contributing to this (debatable) "steady decline"?See REL-related extract below regarding the debatability of decline.
I have no evidence regarding the effect of Saturday’s spectacle. I have an opinion which I believe is quite widely shared (though , if you are still demanding figures for that, I cannot canvass every potential racegoer).
My opinion is that, assuming you are a normal human being with emotions, if you were considering going racing and decided to watch Saturday’s Eider to see what racing was like, you’d be somewhat discouraged and would probably reconsider and spend your leisure money elsewhere.
"Presumably you’d take out the Grand National for the same reasons?"
No I wouldn’t. Even in Red Marauder’s year, I don’t recall the finishers clambering through the last – a fence considerably more daunting than Newcastle’s.
What I would change in the GN are the frequent slowmo replays of horses taking falls – spectacular tumbles in many cases. That does racing’s image a serious disservice in my view.
"And how do you quantify this "market" in which racing has a "share"?"
The betting market which provides the Levy and the leisure market in which racecourses compete for customers.
"Unless you can put firm figures on all these things, you can only be said to be talking from your own feelings and perceptions. Until you share the figures with us, there’s not a shred of evidence to back your assertion."
I’d have thought that most human beings express themselves based on feelings and perceptions, especially in matters like this. If you are saying that without a ream of spreadsheets to back things up I should keep my thoughts to myself then you’d best ignore my posts in future.
……………………..REL-related extract
When British horse-racing started to lose market share, Racing Enterprises Ltd (REL), the commercial arm of British Horse Racing decided in June 2008, the business side of the sport was in dire need of reinvigoration.
The writing on the wall was unequivocal:
betting turnover on horse-racing declined as a percentage of total betting (25 years ago betting on horse-racing accounted for around 80% of bookmakers’ business; today it accounts for considerably less than 50%)
betting volume plateaued in the last two years
the value of picture rights purchased by terrestrial TV channels diminished
racing now had to pay Channel 4 for its Saturday afternoon broadcast slots
the BBC reduced its coverage of the sport and there was a general reduction of horse-racing coverage in other media.
Even though the overall sports-betting market had grown, with online betting, football and particularly online poker appearing to be the main beneficiaries, people appeared to be losing interest in betting on horses. But what could be done?Reviewing the situation
Firstly, Racing Enterprises Ltd commissioned a rigorous review of the situation in an attempt to identify how horse-racing was perceived amongst internal industry stakeholders (eg racecourses, owners, trainers, jockeys, bookmakers) and external markets (eg punters, regular race-goers, and ‘occasional’ race-goers). Consumer focus groups, stakeholder interviews and brand workshops were held up and down the country between October 2008 and April 2009.This investigation confirmed what insiders had suspected: horse-racing had lost relevance and no longer appealed to people in the way that it used to, other than hardcore punters. The market was not renewing itself, with successive generations taking little interest. It was in decline and the competition was growing from ‘sexier’ sports, such as football and online poker
For clarity, 3 horses finished. The third, Morgan Be effectively had to stop for a rest before trying to negotiate the last.
Was it safe to race? Yes. Was it wise to race – the ‘exhaustion pornography’ that was The Eider says no.
Whatever the ins and outs of the safety or commercial aspects, who thinks it was a good thing for a sport whose market share is in steady decline?
From my Blog . . .
Today’s Eider Chase over 33 furlongs (6,638 metres) was the equine equivalent of The Somme. Thankfully there were no fatalities other than racing’s image.
Nine of the twelve who set off through the mud, did not finish; 75% of the field pulled up. The winner, Companero, and second, Giles Cross, didn’t jump the last so much as scale it. The third horse, Morgan Be, 188 lengths behind Giles Cross, actually stopped to rest before being asked to negotiate the final fence – for a prize of £2,760.
Clerk of the course James Armstrong : “I’d have to say, it wasn’t a nice race to watch. It didn’t look good. But what do you do? The Eider is a very tough race every year and this year we’ve got heavy ground, but although it’s heavy, it’s not unsafe ground. Anyone who rang me in the week with runners in the race were told what it would be like and the general response I was getting was that the more testing the better would suit them. Everyone who took part knew what it would be like.”
Italics are mine. If indeed connections of all these horses knew what lay ahead, then the decision to run ought to be taken from their hands. Racing’s in poor enough shape without offering ammunition to its critics and slow motion horror videos to potential fans. The Clerk and Stewards cannot simply wash their hands by passing responsibility to owners and trainers.
The racecourse executive have a vested financial interest in meetings going ahead. To make a decision on the basis that the ground is ‘safe’ isn’t good enough. Quicksand is deemed safe by many, so long as you don’t stand up in it.
I doubt either party – racecourse or connections – will step forward to take the blame and that crystallises one of racing’s main problems – the quick buck, the short term, the grab-what-you-can and to hell with the future. Shameful and demoralising.
