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He’ll be a different horse on quick ground. A stride analyst on twitter counted 7 lead changes on Saturday as opposed to 2 in the Superlative. Timeform gave him a speed figure of 115, though their sectionals team upgraded that by 10.
HDLK, fair enough. My idea of National winners since they adjusted the fences a few years ago are horses you hardly notice jumping on park courses – not at all flashy or fast over a fence, not low and not high, just going one side to the other without losing ground. The big horse just isn’t built for that, and I doubt they’d ask him to make the running. But, we shall see. He’s reportedly on target for the Charlie Hall and in fine shape.
Thanks Louise, further grist to the training-on mill. I wonder what it is in these super 2-y-olds losing their sparkle the following season? It cannot all be down to precociousness or being ahead of their rivals in physique. Psychological, physical, a combination?
Certainly wouldn’t compare with Frankel for now – though Frankel’s Dewhurst got a Racing Post Rating of 126. They are wholly different types. Frankel was all speed from the gate with the insane ability to eke it out over 10f. City Of Troy has raced like an experienced horse since his debut and seems to take quite a bit of stoking up to reach optimum racing pace, but he too looks like he can maintain that top speed much longer than normal and still be tanking passing the post.
We all read performances a different way, thankfully. Although it is far and away more sensible to analyze an horse on the basis of what he has done, I take more pleasure in speculating on what I believe he can yet do. Turning out to be wrong never lessens my satisfaction when I reflect on my initial opinion, and never stops me putting up anything else I rate special.
With respect, if City Of Troy wins the Triple Crown after such a dazzling 2-y-o career, I doubt that many breeders will be crossing out his name saying ‘Nah, never won a top race at 10f’
I know little about breeding, but this from a friend of mine when I raised the question and also mentioned that perhaps there would be a negative influence about training-on via the Scat Daddy blood.
Hope you’re well. I’m far from an expert on bloodlines but you raise an interesting point about the stallion sons of Scat Daddy.
Caravaggio, No Nay Never, Sioux Nation etc were all fast two-year-olds themselves and a fair amount of the mares sent to them were precocious as fillies on the track.
So you could argue their progeny are almost bred to be ahead of the pack at two before their peers catch them up at three.
They’re all young enough stallions that it’s hard to be dogmatic, which is the point I make about Justify; we just can’t know at this stage.
Justify looks like he might be different to the other three. For a start he is out of a mare by Ghostzapper, who won a Breeders’ Cup Classic over 10f on dirt.
And Justify himself stretched out to 12f in the Belmont.
Forever Together was campaigned as an Oaks-type filly as you know, and I had forgotten until watching back the replay just now, quite how badly hampered she was at Epsom.
I’d say there’s loads of encouragement that City Of Troy will get 12f, and get it well, while he looks by far the most likely Guineas winner at this stage.
After that, it’s down to how much Coolmore want to win the Triple Crown.
He’d be the best horse to run in the St Leger since Camelot by a country mile.
John Magnier in particular seems to want to have a Triple Crown winner. Maybe it will depend on what else they have for races like the Juddmonte International and, most crucially, the Irish Champion (a race Aidan puts a huge amount of store by).
I like you love an ante-post wager and if you weigh it all up, 12-1 seems like a big price.HDLK, As Ahoy Senor’s biggest fan even I doubt he will run there and would not win anyway. He’s much too gangly and needs time to organize himself.
With Corach, she believes he has improved again over the summer and has ‘something special’ that, even with her psychology degree she cannot explain. His first target The Betfair will go a long way to proving her theory one way or another.
I hope he has come on again, it would be great to see, I just think it will need to be some level of improvement to better what should come from The Real Whacker who is two years younger and already 3lbs higher. His achievements for a three-race novice haven’t been lauded nearly enough, and I think he is much, much better Gold Cup bet at 20s than Corach Rambler at 20s.
Back to the National. He’s won it idling, but will need to carry a stone+ more, but his chance is considerably better I think, especially with 6 fewer runners than normal. And the National is worth close to £200k more than the Gold Cup. We shall see.
I’m hoping Lucinda will see the light and abandon her Grade 1 strategy to train Corach Rambler for the race again. Even with top weight he’d be single figures on the day, making the current 20/1 fine value.
One I noted last season for the race was Certainly Red who was withdrawn today at Chepstow. He went through a fine period of improvement, then seemed to just lose his form at Ascot. He ran well enough in the Bet365 at Sandown, but a mistake at a crucial stage kept him out of the money. He’s with a small trainer, Lydia Richards, and might well be on offer at a value price.
LD73, thanks for that. Racing TV columnist Andy Stephen mentioned that his dam had won The Oaks, which is where I got the info. But, as you point out, he has erred. O’Brien’s Forever Together indeed won The Oaks in 2018, but COT’s dam is O’Brien’s Together Forever, who did not! That would most certainly temper my enthusiasm for the Triple Crown, so am obliged to you for preventing me putting even more on!
Shame about that, Ian. Regrettably, I have lost so much to them, they welcome every cent I send their way, though revenge awaits with this one – 12/1 is a mad price given how the on-the day-markets will end up. Non racing interventions aside, The Guineas should be a foregone conclusion. Derby stamina, almost assured just by the way he finishes his races, has the most solid of backups in the shape of his Oaks-winning dam, whose sire is Galileo. He’ll be very short for Epsom. After that, how many will even turn up to try to beat him at Doncaster?
City Of Troy 12/1 for Triple Crown – PP. Impossible to quantify risk, but if he has a healthy season and wins the Guineas (about 2/5 I’d say) he’ll be 4/7 on Derby Day. If he wins that in style he’ll go to the post at Doncaster at 2/5 or shorter. The ‘minus risk’ price is 2/1 the treble.
Strongly advise you to take this with Paddy Power online. The Coolmore boys always wanted to win The Triple Crown and are already talking about it today. Wouldn’t go mad because, as mentioned, he could turn a fetlock or have a heart attack between now and Doncaster next September, but he’s with the best team and they will look after like he was half a ton of diamonds.
I loved Sir Ivor and have seen many since and City Of Troy is the real deal for me. He is different from Frankel who, with that bull like build, seemed to brutalize the air in front of him to reach the post. In all three races City Of Troy has looked to me like he was only really getting going as he passed the post. Never seen another do that.
