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Think you were undone simply by the fitness of the winner here, SOS does look a very nice type though and will be interesting to follow throughout the coming months plus he seemed to know his job first time out.
Good shout but no yeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaa today.
So in reality, the bookies have had a couple of decent results there, based on those figures.Maybe not in volume terms, but certainly in laying at what seems to be a great price for them.
With Frankel,who was available all morning at 1/4 i think, they have paid out at 2/11 sp on a 1/3 shot, and Excelebration, they have paid 10/11sp on an 11/8 chance.
Bit like going into your local grocer and saying " I would like to give you £1.50 for that £1 pot of jam because i really want it".Grocer then realises he can sell plenty of £1 jam at £1.50 so puts the price up to £1.75 and so on.
As long you are happy to do that, then fine, but in other forms of life we become really peed off when ripped off but not always in gambling it seems.In saying that though, looking at your book for Frankel`s race there is a huge chance gap of some 58% between Frankel and the rest, which says
to me
that if you are not prepared to back Frankel at the odds on offer then leave that race alone.
I would be interested to see ginge, your prices to beat for both Frankel and Excelebration yesterday, if you still have your book to hand.
Were they value,even at odds on i wonder?
Ascot has a tendency to dry out a lot better these days, and the going may not be so bad. Possibly a bit of heavy around Swinley Bottom, but then it`s slightly sloping from there, so should drain ok.
If the rain stays away this morning i would think it could even come up soft side of good in many parts.
My final word on this is this:_
This isn’t about Ginge it’s about The Ante Post King’s ego.
Summed up in in one line Hurdy, but unfortunately i fear a climbdown won`t be forthcoming as he still believes he`s right – 100% right in fact – even though he cannot
prove
a thing, merely speculate.
Still, takes nice pics tho` and if you can cut through the crap his thread is worth a read.
http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/spezial/jasons_smilie/deal2.gif
Just in case you’ve missed it mate.
Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:41 pm
The Ante-Post King wrote:
Nobodys saying anything that cant be backed up 100%Ginge!
Right then, "back it up" Gordon Wilson! But please be absolutely CERTAIN you are 100% correct in what you are writing!
Explain why I am a
"fake, cheat and charletan"
without using opinion. I expect you to withdraw it or back it up with "facts". You said
"I’ve proved that you cant create a book off your own back,you use the Oddschecker pages and tweak the prices to suit yourself,thats a fact"
!
PROVE IT!
I suspect you may be waiting some while for an answer there ginge or he’ll simply come back with more abuse such is the mentality! Must say nice pics though Gordy boy.
Why will the Ginger one be waiting for ‘some while’ for a response Soft-one? I’m about to knock him out in just a minute actually!
Thanks for the compliment about the Pics,there’s plenty more…Dont try getting to friendly with me though,Ginge will av ya!!
Well nice pics are are nice pics Gordie boy ~ fortunately you remain an open book – still no proof as requested though.
http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/spezial/Fool/box.gif
Just in case you’ve missed it mate.
Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:41 pm
The Ante-Post King wrote:
Nobodys saying anything that cant be backed up 100%Ginge!
Right then, "back it up" Gordon Wilson! But please be absolutely CERTAIN you are 100% correct in what you are writing!
Explain why I am a
"fake, cheat and charletan"
without using opinion. I expect you to withdraw it or back it up with "facts". You said
"I’ve proved that you cant create a book off your own back,you use the Oddschecker pages and tweak the prices to suit yourself,thats a fact"
!
PROVE IT!
I suspect you may be waiting some while for an answer there ginge or he’ll simply come back with more abuse such is the mentality! Must say nice pics though Gordy boy.
And Post of the year goes to ‘Fist’! superb stuff particularly pointing out the glaringly obvious "Why does Ginge bother to make a book in the first place when Professional Odds compilers do it all for us"?? Game Set and Match Fisty Well done! At last old ‘Softie’ admits to being ‘Ginges’ Siamese twin at least! I wont ask where they are bonded mind!!
Gordie boy, such a riposte, you must have a good scriptwriter. What gems will you comeback with next I wonder
Great post Hurdy, and at such a time in the morning too!!
I find myself in total agreement with much of what you say, and i would comment on individual points made.
Making up your own book as a punter gives you no advantage whatsoever unless you know something they don’t and if you do then I might too and while you are spending hours making up a book I’m going round the bookies taking all the 10’s and you end up getting 3’s
I believe it can, particularly the higher the grade of racing where horses are far more likely to be running on merit, but i agree that it can take a lot of time to do, when coupled with finding the bets also.
You certainly don’t need to make up a book to dutch or to realize if you back 7 8/1 shots and 2 win you are going to make a profit.
To win at Dutching you need a very high strike rate which Ginger does not have. Or you need to be prepared to finance losing runs and not wilt when you are thousands of pounds go down the drain.
I have already shown how little Ginger would make in a month if betting to 1 point = 1 pound and I can’t see how anyone would want to do what he does for such a small profit over such along period of time.
A good point, but it does work for ginge, and the beauty is that he does all the work so anyone following doesn`t have to. Tailor it to your own pattern and ginge does have the ability to pick winners.
We can all do sums and it doesn’t take a genius to go to a few of Ginger’s pages and find a losing run where if betting to 10 quid a point it’s enough to scare the living daylights out of any every day punter……..you’d be so fed up shovelling cash onto horses you looked at and thought how the fook could anyone chose that thing it had no chance….because when losing that’s how the mind works and you always blame someone else.
Yes, i would be interested to see how many of the horses backed at say 14`s and over oblige, again, particularly in better quality races. Would certainly not suit every punter by any means, but following blind still works, believe me.
The thing about me is I have along memory and when I was debating this system of Gingers with him a few years back he defended it tooth and nail then as he does now but you know what sticks in my mind?He told me that using this method he wanted to become a professional gambler.
But now he says he’s happy making peanuts because his system/idea has been found to have major flaws in it making it near impossible to make the real money he dreamed about.
To be fair, he does not need to make a fortune given his circumstances, and he does make the profits he needs.
You just need to grab one of his bets like the one he was explaining to me the other day and multiply the points by 10 to come up with"280 pounds @ 15/2 (VC) Suzi’s A Class Act* (min 13/2)
220 points @ 11/1 (VC) Stock Hill Fair* (min 17/2)
Saver:
190 points @ 11/4 (Sky) Malekov (min 5/2)690 quid laid out and in the same day add to that 459 quid bet on the same day they all lose you’d soon be sicked if 4 or 5 went down the Suwanee and your out of pocket 6k or so before you know it.
Ok so you don’t start at a tenner you start at a couple of quid and work your way up but as I keep saying/asking who the fook is going to lay you? They’ll offer sp so the value you seek has gone your system is immediately fooked..no value no bet no Ginger because they’d all close his accounts if he showed any sort of profit at all. If you think not then your mad.
Calculate how much he would have won if all bets were at SP he’d most likely have lost a fortune. I am guessing of course.
Ginger’s thread is harmless it’s good to watch but it simply is not practical.
Don`t agree here, but that`s not to say it can`t be improved
Enter TAPK who knows it’s not….. says so and is sick of the constant barage of percentages and lecturing.
But was there any need to become so aggressive and launch a continued abusive attack which still continues?
Then I got the guy telling me I need lessons in maths ffs.
I’m clever enough to spot shyte when I see it and to know if Ginger was actually betting for real money he wouldn’t be sticking a couple of hundred quid on 35/1 shots.
Well no, and he doesn`t, but he does bet for very real money.
The thing is when you are not betting for real money there is no fear but ask someone to put 50 quid on a horse that looks to have no chance and they will chicken out…That is the nature of the beast.
Ginger because there is no risk can throw selection up after selection and end up showing a profit but in reality you’d need some pair of balls to follow him. a lot bigger than most people on here have.
That is probably true.
The top and bottom of it is you don’t need to make a book to do what he is doing and value has got sweet fanny adams to do with it.
[
u]You may be right, but i would defend his right to do it
It is a simple numbers game and without studying I could throw selections up that will show a profit as long as II don’t have to back it up with hard cash.
No bank no pounds per point just bluster is how I see this thread………plus I am sick of being lectured to be someone I could buy at one end of the town and sell at the other with the money I have made from gambling.
Well perhaps you could share a few of these gambles with the Forum, or i am not looking in the right place?
There should be a rule on this forum that anyone who wants to use it blow their own trumpet must prove they are actually betting these horses themselves.
Ah, just like TAPK for example then…..btw i have every reason to believe that ginge backs up his selections with hard cash.
A good dutcher would never get involved in most races Gingers chooses to bet in there’s way too much left to chance.
Again, not sure i would agree here, as he concentrates mostly on top end stuff, where chance/temperament issues are considerably reduced.
They seek the races that look like a 2 horse race where the 3rd horse is being offered at long odds.
The 1st at Wetherby for example.
Missisipi Blues 3.70 Liberty Gift 3.70 the next horse in the betting is I shot the Sherriff at 7.8.
The market could change but if those were the prices available near the off and there was absolutely no money for any of the unexposed horses the good Dutcher would do one of 3 things
He could bet the first 2 in the betting to either takes out say 400 pound or back all 3
Alternatively he could back Missisppi Blues with the horse he thinks has the best chance off winning.
The odds of success are huge because most of the others will need the experience or are there just for the run. Unlike other types of races.
If he back all 3 at worse he’ll make an easy 100 pound or if one of the two front ones stoats he’ll make nearly 200 pound.
Dutching is not the same as singles and backing odds on overall when Dutching very often you are likely to do so but the odds on rule of eventually you’ll lose simply doesn’t apply
If the punter only backs the first two and one wins for 300 invested he’ll make about 250 quid again odds on but so it should be if the horses just run to their abilities
One of the front ones with MB at 7.8 then he’s make over 230 if MB wins and about 325 quid if the shorter priced horse you chose wins.
Pick and chose which races you back in and the risk of you losing any great amount is zero..if you are a good judge you could make a small fortune. The take out stake can be anything you like. 20quid 500 quid you’ll get matched no problem unlike Gingers fantasy thread.
Of the above why be greedy back all 3 any time a decent profit can be made as a lot of 100-200 quids is more likely than a lot of 350 quids.
I ran the thing for 9 days or so was never in danger of losing my bank, backed willy nilly in nearly every race without thought or any sense to it and still won 100 quid.
It was an experiment and there is no doubt in my mind being selective and keeping things realistic there’s a lot of money to be made doing it my way.
That is what interests me personally, but do you feel that you need to cover runners down to a certain price and also look to achieve a min. roi per race?
If Ginger would get off his high horse scrap the bookmaking and % look for the right races with a sensible achievable staking plan he’d make a fortune IMO.
That will be almost impossible to do imo, as ginge is very much in a comfort zone right now, and would see no need to change.
I will prove it as soon as my friends go back to oz, I’m sober and a staff party planned is out of the way.
I look forward to this Hurdy, i feel that it will be a very interesting project.
I ask you Ginger to give it a try my way and I betya a banana and a half to a plum you start making real profits..you only need a grand to get going with a take out of 100 quid and increase by 50 quid everytime your back goes up 500 quid.
Just start anew thread mate and do both, you don’t even have to play for real money but I know I am right……stop fooking about and lets see some real Dutching done as it should be done instead of throwing fictitious shyte at a wall.
Fictitious no, suggest you look in the direction of other members for that p[articular practice
Gongertipster MK2 could run one thread and you could run the other
As Billy the Kid once said "I’ll make you famous"
To make my position clear, no, i am not ginge in another guise, nor do i look like a wookie in a carrot, far uglier i`m afraid
I have known ginge for many years and meet up with regularly at a number of racecourses I agree that he is very single minded about the way he bets, but i do assure you that he does what he says he does, and i would again defend his right to carry it out.
Yes the lectures can be ott, and we all have been subjected to them, however he puts the work in and is prepared to share his findings/selections.If you do not like his thread then it it easily passed over.
I joined the forum some time ago to see how ginge was progressing, and have only popped in infrequently to watch progress hence posts on his thread only, but i am afraid that the relentless attack on him, particularly from someone whose own credentials are at best suspect imo, unacceptable.
Best of luck to all.
Of course someone who has never worked out a 100% book won’t realise this.
And of course anyone who wastes their time ‘Working out a 100% book’ Will realise it makes 100% no difference whatsoever to a horses chance!
Therefore those wasting ‘Valueable’ time have obviously got nothing better to do!!How do you think that serious punters operate then after timer – do you really think they leave everything to chance and totally ignore what the markEt tells them. No doubt you would consider any winner a good price. Simple maths, if you continually back or lay horses at the wrong price YOU WILL LOSE IN THE LONG TERM, but then you know that already, well except in your fantasy world of course.
I suspect the quest for your p**sing pot has a long journey still to make.
Agreed, it is a fair track and one that trainers do like to send maidens to for their first experience of a racecourse,i found it pleasant enough but would not reach my list of top 10 favourite courses to attend though.
You know what amazes me Softie? The fact that you have the same typing habit as Ginger does…little dots like those and you have only made 14 posts all in one thread. Not one post anywhere else
Can’t wait for Pepe to turn up who does the same…little dots.
He joined out of the blue and came straight to Gingers thread……didn’t go to horse racing like normal people do when starting and finding there way around………..straight to the famous Gingerbread man’s thread.
Wish I was famous
So I reckon we got Ginge mkI, Ginge MkII and Ginge MKIII in our midst aren’t we the lucky ones
You are such a B*stard Fist!!
I’ve been playing old Ginge/Softie like a fiddle and you of all people are the first to expose him!
Nath will know if we’re right! Nath,what do you think?He even after times THAT – for flips sake start thinking for yourself man
Yup and I am Spartacus
Let yourself down again Hurdy…..if Spartacus was about he`d have some maturity about him. Oh bl**dy hell, dots again!!
So, am i softie or ginge or ginge/softie, who knows, better get Nathan`s opinion again, certainly not the witless after timer,he needs all the time he can get in the quest for the pot.
An interesting approach Hurdy, any p/l to report, and have you placed anything since the 9th Oct.?
I wonder if any REAL racing fans are going to turn up at Nottingham,the greatset course in the Country on Wednesday to see
another Wonder horse make his debut in the first,he’s well related apparently,I personally met his Mother too!Oh Gawd…….b*gger, those dots again….
Nottingham racecourse – the greatest, you do need to get out more, and i think it could be somewhat dangerous to admit to taking a racehorse from behind on here – at least i presume that`s how you met the mother.
You know what amazes me Softie? The fact that you have the same typing habit as Ginger does…little dots like those and you have only made 14 posts all in one thread. Not one post anywhere else
Can’t wait for Pepe to turn up who does the same…little dots.
He joined out of the blue and came straight to Gingers thread……didn’t go to horse racing like normal people do when starting and finding their way around………..straight to the famous Gingerbread man’s thread.
Wish I was famous
So I reckon we got Ginge MkI, Ginge MkII and Ginge MKIII in our midst aren’t we the lucky ones
Well Hurdy, i`ve had a good look around the site since i arrived and to date have just sat and watched, mostly ginge making profits and after timer making a tw*t out of himself. now may well be the time to contribute elsewhere as there seems to be a number of trolls on here – betfair furum must heve become too intelligent i guess.
No dots here, maybe later eh
