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Anyhow, we will agree to differ on this. Everybody has there own way. Does anyone whats the story with AOB or Goldophin and the French Guineas. What have they got.
SHL
Quote: from yquem21 on 12:22 am on May 10, 2006[br]
Quote: from SirHarryLewis on 8:46 pm on May 9, 2006[br]OH …and how can you tell whether they are Arazis or storm birds or welll….George Washingtons til later.
<br>Once again, you miss (I would hope deliberately) the basic element of my theory: that any horse’s form as it stands at the time of the race is the only true indication of how that race can be judged.
.<br>Maybe Olympian Odyssey will go on to prove himself the new Sea Bird but on 6th May 2006 there was absolutely no way that he was that.  Perhaps we all here
FIRST OF ALL, I THINK THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE YOU TALK TO ARE ACTUALLY WAITING TO MAKE AN ASSESMENT OF HOW GOOD THIS GUINEAS WAS AND WILL BE INFLUENCED BY WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE COMING MONTHS…..SO DONT BE SO PATRONISING.  MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT LOOK BACK AT THIS GUINEAS AS A GOOD RACE IF ALL THOSE HORSES INCLUDING THE WINNER  FAIL TO DO ANYTHING. YOU ARE BY AND LARGE, IN A MINORITY.  SO NO, I DIDNT MISUNDERSTAND YOU….IM REALLY THAT THICK!!  :)
(Edited by SirHarryLewis at 9:16 am on May 10, 2006)
SHL
At the end of the day, as long as the Derby is a priority for the likes of Coolmore and Godolphin, then it is relevant. And Goldophin/Coolmore still send their best horses (or what they rate their best) to Epsom and not to Chantilly for the French equivalent.
SHL
OH …and how can you tell whether they are Arazis or storm birds or welll….George Washingtons til later. And as for that point, surely GW performed the equivalent tasks as those horses with his 11 lenght win at the curragh.
SHL
Quote: from Grasshopper on 3:22 pm on May 9, 2006[br]
Quote: from cormack15 on 2:34 pm on May 9, 2006[br]Flat races with one hurdle on the approach to the furlong marker. Now there’s an interesting idea.
Agreed Corm. Not only would it make every Flat race around infinitely more interesting, think how many fascinating ‘hurdle placement bias’ debates it would generate.
Everyones a winner. :biggrin:
<br>And tell us. Would we have the hurdles up for the sprinters as well. Well I suppose Dajur would still have been a champ then….<br>I think we should lobby this. I can think of nothing more challenging then a five furlong dash around epsom over hurdles.
SHL
If a maiden yields subsequently six winners from the first seven home, we will look back on it as a good maiden. If this years novice hurdle at cheltenham all get hammerd by the older brigade when they step up, we will all look back on it as a substandard novice hurdle…..if the opposite happens, then we will say the opposite. Maybe you wont but alot of us will.
I take your point and perhaps its time to move on. I can see Im not going to change your mind on this ;) <br>
SHL
[/quoteI think that, apart from the winner, the race wasn’t up to much]
Im inclined to agree with you Stevie at this stage but surely its obvious to state that we might actually be wrong yet.
SHL
[By looking at the form book, which is the fundamental guide to assessing any race. Winning a handicap off 100 and then finishing fifth, behind two horses who have won maidens but been beaten in better company, does not make Misu Bond a Group One horse at this stage in his development.
Surely that’s obvious enough?]
<br>So you feel that subsequent races can never reflect back.  Surely if your talking about a horses development, you have to look at the races after the race in question to get a grasp of the development of the horse. ÂÂÂ
Also, if you believe your argument, then studying the form of a horse could never involve studying what the the horses he beat subsequently did.  I think this is ludicrous….  Whatever happended to form working out or not working out.
To be frank, I dont really think you believe your own arguments.  But thanks for the debate. :)
(Edited by SirHarryLewis at 3:13 pm on May 9, 2006)
SHL
[ it is that he won or that he has improved considerably as the season has progressed. At the time of the 2,000 Guineas, he was not a Group One horse]
How do you know???? Lets take a more realistic example….Sir Percy. I dont know if he is a group one horse but what if he already is…you dont know that yet?? I think your grasping for straws with your argument but lets just agree to disagree with this one. Ill make no assessment of the 2000 guineas for a while yet.<br>
SHL
I love the Derby as well and it usually produces a 3 year old that will be among the top 3 years olds for the year. Even motivator ran pretty well after that last year in the eclipse and the Irish champion stakes. Of course there have been a few duds. But Holding court and Blue canari were hardly the greatest advertisments for the Prix du Jockey Club either.
SHL
A good argument by you folks but Im not buying it.
I dont agree with very much of that….practically none. If all these horses fail to beat anything over the rest of the season and into the next season, I wont be calling it a good guineas.
If on a wild shot, the first 6 all win top group ones, well then I will look back and say it was proabably a good guineas. You make reference to what Misu Bond did, so what if he were to win the first of the group 1’s :biggrin: Would your argument still hold.
GW is potentially a superstar and I dont think we can know for sometime if that is to be the case.
SHL
Not too many people were saying it was poor going in to it and while it may yet prove to be poor, I think judgeing it now is nothing short of idiotic.
SHL
No doubt but thats what happens with all horses from the big yard. Why do you think the winner of the big one today was still 20’s after the Nell Gywnn. Bookmakers are much more afraid of talking horses from these yards.
EC, as a shrewd layer of horses that you are, i was surprised you took on shiroco. Surely the horse wouldnt have even needed to be fully fit to beat that lot and more to the point, why come the whole way to Newmarket for a prep race. Although I suppose in modern times, its probably just as easy as bringing anywhere more local.
SHL
[The Jockey steered it left today. I didn’t see it hang today. ]
I think it was the mare that wanted to go that way but sensibly the jock complied…..much as he did in her last race.  You would have to think the tendency would rule her out of a whole range of possible engagements.
The oaks??  I dont know.  I cant see why people are sure she wont get the distance when she could clearly be expected to get 10 furlongs.<br>
(Edited by SirHarryLewis at 9:48 am on May 8, 2006)
SHL
Yeah, I agree it was a poor Nell Gwynn and I was put off backing Speciosa last night when I was thinking about it but having studied the others, and seen the ground I decided that she was certainly going to be tough enough. I also felt at the time that not enough people made more comment about overcoming that veering tendency. It might not add a huge distance to her race but it definilty can cost a horse a lot of impetus.
I reckon she will stay another 2 furlongs anyway.
Just wondering where she should go next????????
SHL
I had a big cut of money on asset yesterday and a few tiny bits on wake up maggie and speciosa. Not complaining but in truth, Im a hopless backer of horses. I just dont have the balls after a few recent set backs.
SHL
