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I still find this subject interesting after at least a couple score years of puzzling about it, and I’m grateful to all who have posted some good and sometimes conflicting points.
Perhaps, the nub of the matter is that the future is unknown. and. each and every race to come will have its own unique circumstances.
Almost all selective prediction will come down to opinion – in my opinion, anyway. This is so even if we use the Table, Timeform, RP, TV, or anything, really.Whenever I’ve witnessed a group of self-proclaimed value-seekers make actual "value selections"( in their estimation) I have rarely seen total concensus. They don’t all pick the same horse.
Can they all be wrong? Can they all be right?Personally, I still don’t know the answer, but, as a punter, I make my own decisions, and, if I get it wrong, then, nobody is responsible but myself.
I cannot blame the media; they have their agenda; I have mine.Doesn’t this apply to all of us?
Sean Rua.
(spelling)
Thanks for that, mansun.
Several of those on your list have not always had favourable reviews from the armchair jockeys in other places.
As it happens, I was on Alfresco too, but, RH made up for that with his next ride, which, fortuneately, I backed as well.
They’re all paid to ride losers most races, imo! Look at the stats.
Sean Rua.
Yes, I think all of the required tables and theory were also in the "Which book of Gambling" and several other publications.
My belief is that the Media pander mostly to what their researchers think the viewers, listeners, or readers, want.
If the medium is television, then we enter the world of show-bizz. Maybe it’s true that there’s no business like it, but, personally, I’ve learnt not to take the slightest heed of what the frontmen say.When we consider sponsorship and advertising revenue, it seems clear to me that several are not totally free agents. Certainly, the RP is a bookies’ paper in effect. I wouldn’t expect much that would tilt the balance in favour of punters.
Similarly, with TV. I began to do far better on the betting front, when I stopped listening to what the "pundits" said.My answer, therefore, is "no".
Those of us who find the table useful for punting are a minority; long may this continue, say I, even though I regard making the right selections to be of equal importance.Sean Rua.
Sadly, there are some things in betting that are boring but probably essential. The value issue seems to be one of them.
I think there will always be a huge gap twixt theory and practice. Ginge has written a nice piece outlining the theory; few will adhere rigidly to its principles in practice, imo. Probably just as well for both value-seekers and bookmakers’ odds-compilers!
In pure math I would expect each side of the equation to be sure to balance, but in racing, I am quite certain that there is no such guarantee. Even bookmakers go bust from time to time.
When Ginge moved on to his method of selection, I thought at first that he was going to write an ad for Timeform. What he said was very interesting, and I would be keen to know more about why he says he still buys the RP on certain occasions.
What are the strongpoints of the RP paper, in your experience, Ginge?Sean Rua.
I can quite understand your point of view , mansun, especially if you are a favourite backer.
The more people who dislike him, the better for me.
As I said when I first came on here, there are few in the racing game that I particulary like, but it doesn’t matter as it’s not a popularity contest but just an opportunity to profit.
Who do you put forward as a better jockey to follow?
Sean Rua
" Sean Rua
52 bets is far too small a number of bets for any opinion. I am yet to have a 100/1 winner, biggest winner 89/1. "Thanks for your reply, Ginger.
In many ways I accept some of the value betting ideas. However, one thing that has concerned me about value-seekers is that they often seem to need a big number of bets.For instance, lets take FOF: Apparently, he prefers to make fewer but larger bets on specialised targets. When he says this works fine, I believe him. Why wouldn’t it?
Getting back to the "52 bets being too small a number for any opinion", I was wondering about anyone wanting to bet on the Gold Cup, and nothing but the Gold Cup.
Would you say that, even if such a person has records of his betting in 52 Gold Cups, he has not enough data to form an opinion on this year’s likely winner?If that’s correct, then I’m 100% sure that I have no chance at all of profiting from the race. Neither would JP Mc Manus, I suppose.
Btw, I shall be opposing FOF’s beloved Kauto – even though I guess the percentages say my money’s gone west, even before the flag goes up.
Finally, don’t you think that you should be glad that the racing media do not publicise your value concepts at every opportunity? I believe that they have no interest in spoiling the party by spoiling the odds.
Thanks again for your article. it is very well written, imo.
Sean Rua.
And my guess is that he comes back and rides at least one good winner for Jonjo and for Pipe!
Some will not be pleased, I suppose.
Sean Rua.
Well, I think R Hughes is a great jockey myself!
Who, in the game, wants a jockey to win every time?
Will the knockers post the name of a more consistent jockey, please?
Now that my favourite, KF, is sidelined once again, RH is my regular source of profit.
I need some others, so names, please.
Sean Rua.
I’ve heard this value debate for years now. It is interesting, but not totally clear-cut, imo.
The only thing factual about it can be seen only in hindsight. Ginge says that, if we are a good judge, then, we’ll make a profit at the end of the year.I expect that’s true, and I suppose we could claim to have found value. it could be that we got lucky, too.
Here’s where I’d appreciate a bit of help;
If a punter has 52 bets a year ( one a week) and one of them wins at 100/1,
has he found value, or, was he lucky, or, was he daft to have backed the 51 losers, or what?
The percentages are unclear to me, I must admit.Sean Rua.
Yes, very true, Zoz.
Animals in confined spaces is not always a happy situation. I never liked going into the confines of the stable when I was a kid, but, then, I was a very poor horseman.
Another day I got a right good rollicking because I was too slow to jump out in front of a wild herd of ponies that we we were gathering off a mountain. I was supposed to have headed them off and turned them towards the way down. Cowardice got the better of me, and a rollicking was preferable to a trampling, imo.
Thank Goodness those days are gone!
Another thing about the Old Days that I dreaded was a runaway team. Luckily, I only ever saw one, and it had a happy ending; they ran directly into the yard behind the pub, with no harm to beast or cart.
It may have been the power of drink, but , more likely, the smell of the stables. No man could have driven them successfully through that tight access alongside the tavern. They made it unscathed, and just stood there blowing.
Sean Rua.
I’ll try to ask the relation what are the keypoints of the method he uses nowadays.
It won’t be easy as he doesn’t like talking to me! However, that doesn’t detract from his ability to sort out horses.
I don’t say he’s as good as Yarmie, but he made a lot of money by being able to calm down mad wild things.As I said earlier, he reckons he’s moved on beyond Monty Roberts, but I don’t really know how the rodeo stuff works better.
In my cynical way, I can’t help feeling that "cashing in on fashionable, lucrative fads"comes into the equation just a bit, but that’s just a personal opinion.Sean Rua.
Thanks, Drone.
As a punter – and a poor one at that – I think my own brain must be awash with these here Endorphins, as I’ve been at it for years and still haven’t given up!
My view is that there are three major drives that make horses run: hunger, sex, and fear.
A relation of mine who used to do alright with Monty Roberts type whispering techniques and the like, doesn’t agree entirely.
However, he’s moved on to something else now. It’s a seemingly contradictory new rage of an idea that he picked up from some rodeo king in Colorado.I admit I can’t keep up with it all!
At the trotting races, it’s definitely whip-crack-away time. The drivers reckon it helps, but can we ever tell for sure? I don’t know.
At NH starts, they sometimes have a guy with a horse-whip and still get problems. Stall-handlers seem to manage without.
I think a lot of what goes on is just the remnants of old tradition. Show-jumping seems hidebound with it. They are full-on believers in a few hefty cracks – even when standing still.
Perhaps, that’s the secret: show who’s boss.Sean Rua.
An interesting debate that will probably run and run, till some officials in Brussells, or someplace, come up with a decree.
My own view is that many of the best winners that I’ve seen were not whipped much as they neared the line. Just a personal opinion, and perhaps I’ve been watching too many of those swooping, late finishes at Lingfield.
Coming more from the bareback school of pony and donkey riding, I always thought the mane area was the main area for pushing, and those, who did whip, seemed to prosper more by using what would be classed as foul shots under rules, ie, hitting under the saddle or down the neck.
Kicks and punches were also employed, but I guess the purpose here was to instill a bit of fear and show who was boss.
I didn’t care for any of this, and, needless to say, I was a most useless jockey!However, I’m always ready to listen and learn from the experts, so, my question today is
if the whip has to go, should kicking be banned too?When answering, please bear in mind the fact that, as some posters have pointed out, horses differ from humans. I mean, we often see a victorious horse getting a right good slap on the neck from jubilant jockey, owner, and more or less any one else who wants to get in the photo.
If that happened to me after winning, I’d be so frightened of a repeat that I’d bolt away to the mountains and never be caught again!The point is the pain threshhold is different: more than half a century ago, when I was a horrible, nasty, little kid, I saw others shooting airgun pellets at horses just to make them rear. Sometimes, the only response would be a flick of the tail. The whole thing would be classed as horrifyingly non-PC nowadays, of course, but the point is that, as bad as this behaviour was, it does show that horses have relatively thick skins.
Finally, before getting the experts’ views, I’ll declare my own opinion: I believe that provided kicking, slapping, and strangling ( by means of the reins) are still allowed, then I don’t think the whip is a vital bit of kit for racehorse management.
I may be wrong, of course.Sean Rua.
berminn,
Yes, that makes it seem a bit like trying to make selections by using collateral form!sberry,
I like Wolver, but I don’t expect you’ll ever return. The viewing there is better than most, imo, so I’m happy with the place.Facilities?
What are they?
The toilets work; the roof doesn’t leak. It’s always freezing cold and blowing a gale outside, which is where I go.
Good enough for me. All we need is better class racing!
I gave that bandit twilight rubbish every chance for a whole season of misery. Never again! If you attended that, then I can fully understand your dim view of the place.
Lingers used to be my favourite too, originally, but I find the new management retrograde and unfriendly.
Sean Rua.
Perhaps it depends on what you want and what you enjoy.
I like Warwick myself.
Easy access from town and train station; easy pre-parade and paddock viewing.
Reasonable view of the straight from the stand above the Ring and up that fire-stairs type thing.Reasonable Ring of bookies.
Toilets fair.
Indoor betting not the best, imo.I don’t eat or drink at racetracks, so cannot comment on those.
Town looks a typically English old place with castle, antique shops, undertakers go leor, decent shops, crap shops, and all the usual funny traffic systems.
Sean Rua.
Just some minority, personal, views:
Southwell is better value than Kempton.
Hereford is better value than Ludlow.
Uttoxeter is better value than Goodwood.
Chester is poor value, but I love it!
Lingfield seems to be going into decline.
Ascot is better than it was, but still not right.
Epsom is losing value year after year. They have commandeered the Hill and charge too much now.
Sandown is good.
Newmarket and Cheltenham are poor value, but my expensive Gold Cup ticket has arrived this morning, so things could be a lot worse, imo.Sean Rua.
They key to King and Nichols is that they always seem to know exactly what the next step will be. Apart from their obvious natural talent with horses, they always seem to have a plan or at the very least, options considered. Im a great believer that the really talented people in any walk of life are clear and concise communicators and have a great deal of confidence in their judgements"
Clive’s interesting statement above has got me posting here, even though I said I wouldn’t!
I rarely listen to anything that trainers say, so, may I ask, what are Nicholls’ plans for the Cheltenham Gold Cup?Runners, riders, etc?
I seems I shall be betting against at least one runner from his stable.
Sean Rua.
