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Noland was never going over hurdles.. He’d already proved all he needed to.
Complete bollocks! Just before it was announced he injured he was due to run in the hurdle at Cheltenham that Sizing Europe won this season – a race that has also produced plenty of useful horses in the past. In essence he’s a potential Champion hurdler running over fences – the only downside at the moment, Cheltenham-wise, is his lack of experience over fences.
LOL! Python’s "Dirty Hungarian Phrasebook" sketch, I presume!
Spot on.
Let me know how you get on – dropping of the panties might not be such an issue but I’m not sure how an Hungarian will react to being called Sir William!
I could be in for a fun old time when I go back there in August for the Sziget Festival… unless anyone here could teach me the Magyar for "Stuff this Nu-Metal abberation, when are Gogol Bordello coming on?" in good time, please?
You could always try the equivalent of:
‘My hovercraft is full of eels’
or
‘Drop you panties Sir William, I cannot wait ’til lunchtime’.
If I remember, it seemed to work well in a reverse sense some years ago!
I’m with you there Fists.
Think it’s a great shame that we didn’t get to see Noland fulfil his potential over hurdles last season. If we had, his Cheltenham target this year may have been rather different.
Has any of you (apart from Irish Posters) seen Ruby Walsh’s Father Ted
Father Ted?
A**E!!!
Any value in having the most recent threads repeated on this page, which hasn’t been affected the by the pictures that seem to be the root of the problem?
Robert99
Perhaps the twilight zone is a good place to be – especially if it means that Birmingham doesn’t exist!
As you say, the thread was started to discuss JW’s article (which is, in my opinion a lazy piece of journalism) and not your’s. However, you did enter the fray and should expect that some people will want to challenge your views – isn’t that a useful facet of the forum?
Taking a point made by you in an earlier post:
It has been exceptional for a horse to win a major race mid-season and then go on to win the Arc, for example. After the Ascot peak of 131 RPR 28 July, Dylan Thomas still won the Arc but with a lower performance of 127 RPR on 7 October which faded to 100 and 113 after the Arc in races the trainer at least though he might win. The current post race record of early season Derby winners etc is also abysmal.
It has become increasingly exceptional for a horse to follow the previously ‘traditional’ route of championship races, due to changes in the international programme. However, horses can produce a consistently high level of performance from early, through mid, to late season. A single recent example of this is Ouija Board:
2004 Season:
Oaks – won – RPR 124
Irish Oaks – won – 117
Arc – 3rd – 123+
Breeders Cup – won – 1212005 Season:
RPR’s of 118, 117 and 119+ at Group / Grade 1 level
2006 Season:
RPR’s of 117, 118, 124+, 124, 124 and 123, again at Group 1 level.
All performances achieved in a range of countries / continents and in the latter case spanning a period from April to November and before you cry foul on the ratings front, what error band would you associate with an individual form rating? In my view, your use of Dylan Thomas as an example was rather disingenuous, since we know there were perfectly valid reasons for his dismal end to the season – one’s that I certainly don’t feel can be attributed to any form of ‘cycle’.
This leads onto my next point which is, I think, that there may be an element of semantics creeping into this. The use of the word cycle suggests something that recurs on a regular or periodic basis. Whilst some of the components we choose to consider when assessing the form of a horse may display certain trends, which can be subject to disruption, there are many that do not display cyclical behaviour and should, surely, be thought of as variables.
My own method of analysing an individual race, to examine whether or not it presents a suitable betting opportunity, considers variables about which there are no great secrets and hardly make me innovative – trainer, jockey, going, etc. However, I also attempt to quantify areas of uncertainty, leading to the calculation of a rating for each individual horse from which I calculate a value price for the race . A horse with an acceptable rating level that meets or exceeds this price represents a bet. I’m sure that there are those with more intelligence, time and money than me who use predicitve models that make mine look amateurish but at least it works reasonably well.
In dealing with a chaotic system, the ability to identify errors or uncertainties at the analysis stage and use a predictive model in a way that presents the user with some idea of the range of possible outcomes is of great benefit. I don’t know if you’ve ever looked into the field of ‘ensemble predicition systems’ but hope you might find the following of interest:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/nwp/ensemble/
a Google search will reveal other sources on the topic. I’m sure that we can all think of trainers or other individuals who do their best to make racing chaotic on occasions!
Finally, is that a Pompey badge? If so, are you the guy (insert alternative term) with the bell?!!
I well pissed Mike there’s some big tart here and don’t know her name………anyone want to buy a Thai wife I can get special offer buy one get one free
Go easy Fists – wouldn’t want you finding that you’d got hitched to a ladyboy….
If you could ever re-run races under exactly the same conditions there would still be performance variation and that would be more obviously from a result of different pace profile, tactic changes and the position of the horses in their fitness cycles.
And quite what has that to do with a ‘fitness or form cycle’? There is absloutely nothing cyclical about the draw allotted to a horse, or the pace that it encounters in a given race. The attempt to attach a simple label to a complex issue remains a farce.
There are form cycles, many of them trainer induced, and any who think they can ignore them is missing a valuable tool – imo, of course.
The fact that the level of form displayed by an individual horse can display a (sometimes) large degree of variability is beyond dispute. However, the attempt to attribute this to a single source, in this case the physiological capability of the horse in general, is nonsensical.
Yes, amongst other considerations, aspects surrounding the trainer need to be taken into account and to not do so is foolish.
It is these differences in conditions, weight, opposition etc that are the major cause of the peaks, troughs, ripples, waves or whatever you want to call them in a horses form cycle
Throw in the health of the individual horse, the overall health of the stable, the trainer’s intentions, the jockey’s intentions, luck, etc., etc., for good measure – ‘form cycles’ my a**e. (Not intended as a poke at you Charlie.)
Your original expectation was naive Jim.
It’s not just the state of the ground that’s important, either. Wind speed / direction can be a major influence, Newmarket being a prime example where fast times are often recorded on days where a strong tail wind prevails. Weight carried also comes into the equation.
Given that the intended readership of the RP is, presumably, racing professionals or those with a serious interest in racing, the point of this article is?
JW is obviously an exceptional individual since, from his comments concerning Sublimity, he clearly possesses the ability to converse with the horse! Did he use the Vulcan mind-meld method, I wonder? "Whoa big fella, what really won the Champion for you?" "Oh, it was all a matter of confidence really James."
Could the fact that the ‘Derby form often appears not to work out’ be anything to do with recent winners not being very good and / or changes to the structure of international racing, as opposed to form cycles?
The retro-fitting of ideas or theories is a good game but one that rarely bears public scrutiny. Whilst, in one way it may be good that the article has sparked discussion here, I do find it nauseating that individuals use such platforms to portray or promote themselves as being innovative, or a ‘thinker’.
Finally, to borrow from a local phrase, if America’s so good, there’s a boat (or plane) there in the morning!
P***ed again Fists!
Are you that aggressive in the bar, or do you just save it for TRF?
There’s an analogy between Mordin’s writing and graphic descriptions of a serial killer’s handiwork. You don’t really want to go there but a morbid curiosity draws you in….
Mention has been made on this thread, and elsewhere, that NH races should take place over a distance within +/- 100yds of the advertised distance. However, in the GPS age what excuse, except in the most exceptional circumstances, can there be for any races not taking place over a trip within centimetres of that advertised?