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Blackheath,
Thanks for reply and I certainly agree that horses have their quirks and will achieve their best under a narrow range of conditions. No horse is really fully fit before it has gotten to be race fit on the course and there are many examples of horses that come naturally or artificially right at certain times of year and fillies improving in the Autumn etc. I am actually talking about the combined overall effect of training methods which lead to clear performance cycles, the changing weather and ground conditions, the change in competition level as the season progresses, a trainer using other horses as entry gauges for other horses in the stable, the race calendar etc – all these unquantifiable individual aspects as it effects horse performance – the overall result to me is a cyclical performance with horses reaching a single peak at some time within the season. We can agree to differ on that.
Sorry Robert I cannot have your theory at all. Not even a tiny bit.
Some horses are best fresh. They cannot take much training. They do not need much training to be, for them, 100%. Those horses are worth studying and looking out for because they are invariably underbet.
Even trainers who more or less follow the pattern you are describing make exceptions depending on the individuals they are training.
My suggestion is that people put these dubious theories and preconceived ideas out of their minds and try to understand racehorses as individuals.
This Forum becomes ever more like the twilight zone.
I say I have been to Birmingham, it exists.
The return comment is I have never been to Birmingham it definitely does not exist – end of.I produce some evidence of particular horses of how performance varies over their lifetime’s racing. Someone, at best, then picks out the winning performances under certain conditions and conveniently ignores the losing ones under the very same optimum racing conditions.
Form cycles is absolutely about individual horses – that is the whole point.
They act over the whole training season and interact with the various race conditions as actually met on the day. The clever bit, as Prufrock and JW alluded to, is separating it all out.Form cycles is certainly not my idea and the thread was started to discuss JW’s article – not mine. Form cycles probably started with Len Ragozin in the 50s. Peter May has also written on the cycles for trainers and he is no fool. I have been using it as an aid successfully for over 20 years and certainly cannot afford to accept any of racings myths at face value.
If anyone can provide some actual evidence, rather than unsubstantiated opinion, that form cycles are a myth then I am quite willing to learn something new.
Just as a matter of interest, does anyone know if these form cycles alter with age?
I would imagine that they flatten out to a perpetual hovering the lowest point, eventually.
Hopefully in Blackheath’s case the saddle will be hung up soon, before the wheels fall off. A well earned retirement awaits. But before then the old fella will be wobbling down the Southwell straight on Tuesday.
Robert99
Perhaps the twilight zone is a good place to be – especially if it means that Birmingham doesn’t exist!
As you say, the thread was started to discuss JW’s article (which is, in my opinion a lazy piece of journalism) and not your’s. However, you did enter the fray and should expect that some people will want to challenge your views – isn’t that a useful facet of the forum?
Taking a point made by you in an earlier post:
It has been exceptional for a horse to win a major race mid-season and then go on to win the Arc, for example. After the Ascot peak of 131 RPR 28 July, Dylan Thomas still won the Arc but with a lower performance of 127 RPR on 7 October which faded to 100 and 113 after the Arc in races the trainer at least though he might win. The current post race record of early season Derby winners etc is also abysmal.
It has become increasingly exceptional for a horse to follow the previously ‘traditional’ route of championship races, due to changes in the international programme. However, horses can produce a consistently high level of performance from early, through mid, to late season. A single recent example of this is Ouija Board:
2004 Season:
Oaks – won – RPR 124
Irish Oaks – won – 117
Arc – 3rd – 123+
Breeders Cup – won – 1212005 Season:
RPR’s of 118, 117 and 119+ at Group / Grade 1 level
2006 Season:
RPR’s of 117, 118, 124+, 124, 124 and 123, again at Group 1 level.
All performances achieved in a range of countries / continents and in the latter case spanning a period from April to November and before you cry foul on the ratings front, what error band would you associate with an individual form rating? In my view, your use of Dylan Thomas as an example was rather disingenuous, since we know there were perfectly valid reasons for his dismal end to the season – one’s that I certainly don’t feel can be attributed to any form of ‘cycle’.
This leads onto my next point which is, I think, that there may be an element of semantics creeping into this. The use of the word cycle suggests something that recurs on a regular or periodic basis. Whilst some of the components we choose to consider when assessing the form of a horse may display certain trends, which can be subject to disruption, there are many that do not display cyclical behaviour and should, surely, be thought of as variables.
My own method of analysing an individual race, to examine whether or not it presents a suitable betting opportunity, considers variables about which there are no great secrets and hardly make me innovative – trainer, jockey, going, etc. However, I also attempt to quantify areas of uncertainty, leading to the calculation of a rating for each individual horse from which I calculate a value price for the race . A horse with an acceptable rating level that meets or exceeds this price represents a bet. I’m sure that there are those with more intelligence, time and money than me who use predicitve models that make mine look amateurish but at least it works reasonably well.
In dealing with a chaotic system, the ability to identify errors or uncertainties at the analysis stage and use a predictive model in a way that presents the user with some idea of the range of possible outcomes is of great benefit. I don’t know if you’ve ever looked into the field of ‘ensemble predicition systems’ but hope you might find the following of interest:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/nwp/ensemble/
a Google search will reveal other sources on the topic. I’m sure that we can all think of trainers or other individuals who do their best to make racing chaotic on occasions!
Finally, is that a Pompey badge? If so, are you the guy (insert alternative term) with the bell?!!
If anyone can provide some actual evidence, rather than unsubstantiated opinion, that form cycles are a myth then I am quite willing to learn something new.
How about a list of horses that run to regular peaks throughout any given year? Or are they all "exceptions" like Seb Coe?
Why is this "form cycle" annual anyway? Why not every 7 months or something? or every 7 weeks?
I dont buy any of this at all.
Can this thread be fixed, the text is disappearing off the right hand side of the window.
Any value in having the most recent threads repeated on this page, which hasn’t been affected the by the pictures that seem to be the root of the problem?
The exploits of the phemonenon that was Michael Johnson, and more recently Asafa Powell and Jeremy Warriner, would indicate that comparisons between the ability of a horse and an athlete to perform at a peak level over a period of time are drawn somewhat unfairly.
Asafa Powell is more like the Harchibald of sprinting!!!! The world finals this year proved that!!
Asafa Powell is more like the Harchibald of sprinting!!!! The world finals this year proved that!!
Asafa is a worrier. One to take on in the Championship finals.
But in any ordinary race very hard to beat.No equivalent of that in horse racing?
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