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Maggsy,
I do not think that VDW and Tony fell out as such. There are two opinions at this moment in time.
1. This is what Tony Peach wrote in VDW the final story, where he describes his last phone call with VDW where VDW seems to not know him and later when he rung back the phone was disconnected. ( I would not for one moment doubt what Tony has said)
2. Recently a researcher has claimed that VDW is still alive and that the story of the ‘old man’ in 1996, the dutchman from the war and losing ‘the plot’ was a myth.I can not say any more, nor make any references otherwise I will be banned or sued or both!
BUT the main point is that the methods work for many. That is not a myth.
As far as I know and from what others have said Jock Bingham (who sadly passed away) never solved VDW. In my opinion his best book is Trainer Track tips. If these selections are researched there is a profitable angle to be gained, but it is not entirely VDW. I think he could make racing pay, but once under pressure to find winners for a tipping line, or whatever he got involved in, he seemed to have lost the plot. As Tony Peach said ‘he got greedy’.
I am open to correction on this, but I do not think he successfully unlocked the puzzle that is VDW.I know for certain that Jock existed as an individual and that he died around the year 2000/2001 as I was informed of this by Raceform. He and Tony went there separate ways before this.
(Any corrections willingly accepted!!)L33, Mtoto etc
I have just got in from an ‘away day’ and read these posts with interest. A great little discussion.
L33, You say a lot of your bets are dutches. I have been working for a while (in spurts I must admit) on VDW and his methodology. The problem I have is knowing if I am right about the way I am looking at things or the conclusions I have made. I have studied G Hall’s key, but also been down many ‘dead ends’ afterwards where I think I have found a way of improving on this, but after a look at a fair number of examples I find it is a wrong assumption. I wonder if you could offer any advice? I seem to be stuck in a 40% strike rate (figures perhaps a slight underestimate after my hard drive and records melted!) I also try to isolate the class form horse, but then when I think I have got it, it goes wrong.
For what it is worth I agree with your comments re Red Gala, again in that race I was down to a short list but let the race run as I was not confident enough to dutch it.
On a general note the study of VDW can be both rewarding and frustrating, but it was nice to read the pleasant discussion between you and Mtoto, without any vitriol thrown in!L33
Well done with that selection.
Hensman
I agree that the method works over all distances, but I was always of the opinion that 5 and 6f races were a small minority of the 100+ selections VDW gave. That perhaps leads some to think that he mosty left the big field 5 and 6f races alone.
Sailing Shoes
Comments such as "I suggest you either put up or shut up" Do not really help as L33 already has put forward a series of selections.
What more does he have to do??
If he puts up selections and if people can not fathom the methodology, it turns to disbelief, frustration and sarcasm. If he does not he gets told to put up or shut up. He can not win.
Persist like this and you will just drive people who make VDW work away, which perhaps is your aim. It does not help the likes of me though who only get around 40 -50% and would like to improve on it!
Some people have really got the wrong message here.
Why would anyone complain about a thread on a forum, as if they think it is rubbish they can just ignore it????? Surely no one HAS to read it. I go on a few forums and there are a few topics/threads that are complete and utter rubbish, but everyone to their own and I just do not read them.
As for a recruitment drive I fail to see that one at all!
"Then why do people debate selections"?
Whose selections? VDW’s?
You hit the nail on the head in a way when you said that it seemed to be written in ‘code’ plus of course the ‘missing link’. Some claim to have solved the puzzle and of course they keep it to themselves or delight in tormenting others who can not find it. Selections by followers of the method will always differ up to a point because unless you have the ‘full Monty’, then individuals have tailored the methods to suit themselves and make it profitable. This means that exponents of VDW who have not got the full picture will frequently discuss/argue over selections. Some like handicaps, some specialise in non handicaps, some have a bash at both. Others will not touch the big field sprints etc etc
I was going to say I hope this helps, but it probably does not!!
"just nobody seems to know the rules to the system and people seem to come up with varying selections".
Sailing Shoes
It is a method not a system, which is why there are few ‘rules’ as you would see them.
The fact that it is a method means that the principles of VDW have been interpreted differently. Hence the arguments.
dave jay
I am not quite sure what you mean? I don’t think anyone will go through a couple of years form and post up all the relavant results/details unless of course they have this to hand and know how to transfer it to the forum. I have not got it in that format.
In the season previous to when VDW gave it as "a racing certainty" Little Owl ran in the Sun Alliance Novices chase at Cheltenham where it was hampered and fell. It was no lost cause though at the start of the race as it was 2nd fav. So in 1980-1 season it was being brought on from that. Whether VDW backed it previously to March 1980 we do not know.Hensman, Maggsy
"the Little Owl and Sunset Cristo races"
I have found this form book the most difficult to come by in recent years. Now you would think that the same number of form books were printed each year and therefore the same number trickle onto the market, but that does not seem to be the case with this one. I eventually found one in a job lot and had to sell on all the others I did not need!
It may be that the weekly one that builds up into a book is more readily available.Hensman
Regarding form in the Spells it All out article. I would agree that the sentence " Form is considered a major factor to winner finding and what is form if it is not that one performance is better than another"? is important.
I would also think that the statements "and most important, how they performed in the latter stages of each race" and re Sunset Cristo "The form is impressive and note not only how it ran, but what it had behind it". Would also help to explain how VDW might have sought to find if a performance was better than another.
Hensman, Ima etc
Thank you
I will have to get back to you as I regarded other points just as important in that article re form. I will post them later as I have to deal with my bank this afternoon(HSBC not betting!)
A Question for Hensman
You stated the following
"In the March 1981 article the issue of form was covered (if one can call it that) in a single 1.5 line sentence which is (I think deliberately) capable of being interpreted in two quite different ways. The next para. invites one to choose the wrong way!"
In my copy of the Golden Years (and I presume others have a copy) the article to which you refer covers about 7 pages.(with no page numbers) I just wondered if you could point out more clearly where you think the one and a half lines are that cover the issue of form and the paragraph that invites you to choose the wrong way!
Thanks
"I seriously doubt you’re going to find anything of use in the material".
Sailing Shoes there is an awful lot in the booklet the Golden Years, whether you want to try and use the methods or not. So I would not see it as a waste of money. I have all, as I see it, relevant VDW booklets and frequently look back over them.
Cormack, it is a method not a system.
I think that Hensman was showing the mechanics of the method as to how a field could be reduced through consistency and ability (One aspect of class). My point was that it would have been better to have chosen a race with say 8 runners and a winner at moderate odds, rather than with the 3-40 Ascot. The reason being that members would presume that books can be made with winners at astronomical odds and of course it was given after the race (hence fuelling after timing jibes). Nowhere does Hensman say that a bet was struck or a book made for that matter, just that the winner would have to be included if one were to do so.
Anyway it seems Mtoto had put up the winner in a short list before the event, so it seems that Hensman was not too short of the mark in showing their short list and how it was achieved."From those eight he would have eliminated any horses who were not, in his idiosyncratic meaning of the term (this is "the missing link"), form horses"
Presumably you know what the missing link is then?
Your evaluation (after the event) I would agree with re a book. In a race of 23 runners over 7f , which these days I personally leave alone, part of the book is a horse carrying 9-7 in a competitive 23 runner race at a grade 1 track (let alone the effect of the draw and a possible splitting of the field). Unfortunately selecting a book with ‘a winner’ @ 50/1 does no one any favours. It only gives fuel to the aftertiming criticism of VDW and seems to suggest that the exponents of the method can make books including 50/1 winners. (whilst of course others who are not in the know can not).
I think an evaluation of an eight runner handicap (or something similar) may have taken people a little further with the methods and the balancing of class and form, more importantly at least kept them from the realms of fantasy, as they would probably see it!
Hi all,
I have read through some of the comments here with interest.
Re ‘the missing link’
I think the first reference to it was a letter from G Hall who claimed to see the ‘Method’s key’ from the first seven/eight selections given by VDW
Later it (or something else?) was referred to as the missing link. The whole problem is that those who have claimed to have found it, will not give it away. (The Key/missing link)
People have rubbished VDW on the basis that you are searching for a Holy Grail that does not exist. Others still search.
Perhaps it will go on for ever!
