[rocky91]

I will be hoping dis donc gets a run for Noel Meade on Saturday In the 2mile maiden hurdle. And the mullins ricci horse stays in to make the market.

Dis donc has some nice aqps bumper form that doesn’t put him too far behind my main fancies for the supreme.
Delirant
Dostal phil
Dortmund park

[rocky91]

rocky91 wrote:

Haven’t had a bet yet but you can guarantee that
ANNAMIX
will be going into single figures for the supreme before he ever sets foot on a race course.

On his way to single figures

Seen the first mentions of him this evening on Twitter.

[rocky91]

Added

Mystic theatre 16/1
Mares novice hurdle.
Excellent run and extremely unlucky in a warm bumper at punchestown, followed her in her few runs over hurdles so far, set to step up in grade over 2miles at Christmas and delighted with the 16s on offer. Fayonagh may or may not run here, has stronger form than the rest of the mullins bumper mares and the 2nd fav deffinately won’t see a race course this side of Christmas, and may therefore stat in bumpers and keep her novice status for the following season. Holiday winner could be anything for mullins coming off the flat, But I’d much rather back proven form, and visual impression.

buveur dair champion hurdle 4/1
4s almost gone
Paddy power pushed out yorkhill for this and the qmcc to top prices. He wouldn’t worry me too much in this race anyway. But looks unlikely now.

Min qmcc 12/1

I liked him over fences last season, he beat ordinary world easily as did altior, its along time anf a fifferent discapline since he was beaten easily by altior in the supreme,
i have heard no news at all on douvan and everybody’s just assuming that he will come back exactly how he was before the qmcc,
Assuming he does come back as he was, the exploits of sizing John would make me have a good think about where I would want to campaign him this season. Especially with altior as an opponent and having min who looks an out and out 2 miler to me.
Taking this all into account id expect altior to win, but min is definitely the value in the race.
I’d have them 4/7 altior 13/8 Min in a match bet over fences.
Will be fun to watch great field in the division also but I couldn’t back him to beat min.

Antepost bets in total.

Qmcc
Min 12/1

Champion Hurdle
Buveur Dair 4/1

Stayers hurdle
Nichols canyon 7/1
Uknowhatimeanharry 9/1

Novice chasers

Arkle
Finians Oscar 20/1
Melon 16/1(caution could stay hurdling)

Jlt
yanworth 10/1
Finians Oscar 10/1
Willoughby court 16/1

Petit mouchoir 12/1 any race.

Novice hurdlers.

Samcro 14/1 any race
Annamix supreme 25/1 20/1
Debuchet 12s any race.
Red jack 16s any race.

Mares novice hurdle
Mystic theatre 16/1

[rocky91]

If anyone was thinking of backing FLEMENSHILL unfortunately he has passed away.

I received a message when I was asking for quotes of prices.

Terrible news for the potts And tizzard. a £480,000 purchase after he bolted up in his ptp.

And his other novice vision des flos who won the goffs bumper at punchestown currently has ring worm

[rocky91]

Willougby court

“I’ve always been a fan of keeping horses to as short a trip as you can for as long as you can. As he has won the Neptune, hopefully he’s a horse of very high ability who will be running in the big races. It’ll be two and half to three miles and if he went three miles it may be in the Feltham. I’m sure he’ll get three miles in time but I believe he has enough speed for two and a half. A lot of people doubted that when he went to Cheltenham on quick ground, but he wasn’t caught out. Fences will be the way forward, he jumps brilliantly and if he ended up in the JLT I’d be a very happy man”
Ben pauling

Antepost bets in total.

Stayers hurdle
Nichols canyon 7/1
Uknowhatimeanharry 9/1

Novice chasers

Arkle
Finians Oscar 20/1
Melon 16/1(caution could stay hurdling)

Jlt
yanworth 10/1
Finians Oscar 10/1
Willoughby court 16/1

Petit mouchoir 12/1 any race.

Novice hurdlers.

Samcro 14/1 any race
Annamix supreme 25/1 20/1
Debuchet 12s any race.
Red jack 16s any race.

[rocky91]

You had some good trades last year vtc, and you must have got a good thrill out of the runs of labaik and native river.

I will have a look at some big prices later in the year when there’s more liquidity in the market.

[rocky91]

Buveur dair at 4s my next bed I’m waiting to place.
Definitely agree. Faugheen the danger and he’d be odds against to make it here, and as much as I love faugheen has been off 2 years and he hasn’t faced a buveur dair even in the year he won his champion.

Ainsi va la vie
Worrys me a little with the fact she had been off for 2 years prior to running recently, however that’s all factored in to her price and good luck.

[rocky91]

Thanks vtc. I spent a few spare hours over the weekend going through video replays of all the bumpers and those 2 really stood apart for me, time will tell if I am correct.

will be interesting to see if petit mouchoir gives fences a bit more respect.

The plan was to wait for nrnb but that’s gone out the window for now lol.
Strangely my early bets have been where I have been making the money last few years,

Good luck with your bets also

[rocky91]

To win any race.

Debuchet 12/1
Likely supreme. Last one of the bridle in the champion bumper and has followed up since

Red jack 16/1. (Likely neptune)
Beat debuchet on debut with
le richenbourg back in 3rd before being purchased by jp mcmanus and has followed up since.

The best 2 bumper horses in the land imo.

To win any race 12/1
Petit mouchoir.

Goes novice chasing, I would have thought he had arkle written all over him, however Michael oleary thinks he now settles far better and is a 3 mile chase prospect. Which I originally thought after his point to point and sales bumper wins. I’d personally fancy him from the front in an arkle. But where ever he goes i’d want him on side, apart from finians Oscar and the ill fated neon wolf, it looked a poor crop of novices to me last season, and petit mouchoir is bred for the job.

If for what ever reason he diddnt take to chasing, he’s still open to improvement over hurdles especially with a clear round.

Antepost bets in total.

Stayers hurdle
Nichols canyon 7/1
Uknowhatimeanharry 9/1

Novice chasers

Arkle
Finians Oscar 20/1
Melon 16/1(caution could stay hurdling)

Jlt
yanworth 10/1
Finians Oscar 10/1

Petit mouchoir 12/1 any race.

Novice hurdlers.

Samcro 14/1 any race
Annamix supreme 25/1 20/1
Debuchet 12s any race.
Red jack 16s any race.

[rocky91]

Added annamix supreme 20/1.
Got at 25s in a few multiples.

The form is poor.
But so was vautour’s behind black river.

A complete chance that it’s mullins supreme horse
mullins and rich ricci bought from Gulluime macaire the same as vautour and was very green on his only start, tenderly handled until the finish where he came 2nd with a view to keeping his novice status. Hes been in mullins yard for wellover a year so I’m sure he has had plenty of schooling.

I have Been waiting to see what the market said before playing and the gamble has started today. Paddy power/ Betfair cut from 20s to 14s.and like min it’s the time of year when they run the schooling hurdles and a supreme gamble starts.

I expect annamix to bolt up in a poor maiden hurdle at long odds on then go to single figures so I’ll have a speculative play now on something that will shorten up rather than being value.

[rocky91]

Every year I also out a few quid on arctic fire at treble figure odds for this on the exchanges. His only try at 3m on heavy I would completely write off, and the way he finishes off every race really interests me yo see if he could do it over this trip.

[rocky91]

Stayers hurdle.
Nichols canyon 7/1
Uknowhatimeanharry 9/1
Backed both.

A league above the rest and both sound.

Penhill is out for atleast 6 months after suffering an injury in preparation for the Melbourne cup and the owner doesn’t fill you with any optimism of a return soon.
Lami serge needs very soft ground.

I don’t rate the world’s end personally and nobody knows what would have happened in the Bartlett and it was hardly a facile win at Aintree against limited opposition.
Yanworth and finians oscar go novice chasing
Apple’s jade will stay down the mares route

If im really trying to look there’s only wholestone and mega fortune i could see out of the opposition that could have some sort of chance of progressing.

So I think the market leaders are definitely over priced.

[rocky91]

Added SAMCRO at 14/1 to win any race.
I’d be leaning towards Neptune, however the Albert Bartlett would be very possible.
If somehow he doesn’t reach the very top level, you have the fall back of a bet on the martin pipe or coral cup depending on his mark.

He looks top class and what you would hope him to be for the money they paid out. Definitely a novice to look forward to this season.

And forbid a setback maybe even still a live chance with the champion bumper.

[rocky91]

Half the stake of the jlt.
On finians Oscar arkle 20/1

[rocky91]

With the sad news about Neon wolf.
I have placed my 1st bets.

Yanworth jlt 10/1
Finians Oscar jlt 10/1.
I was considering backing all 3 win neon wolf included when finians Oscar was 12s. But now being able to back them both at 10s with neon wolf unfortunately not running. Is a great opportunity imo. Both 99% go chasing. And both the horses optimum distance imo.

Melon 16s arkle.
Unrelated but I could see them trimming the price with neon wolf now out and 16s very fair imo

[rocky91]

I was going to take the 20s available for both the arc and the champion stakes. However after reading what Jean claude just said, I will leave it alone.
Straight after the race I wasn’t too worried and thought the 20s was a huge over reaction. I hope he does get a chance again. And hopeful it’s a similar story to treves return before going of unfancied in the arc

[rocky91]

Jean claude rouget on almanzor.
Fortunately I’ve been in this profession for 40 years,” said Rouget. “I can’t say why but this morning I really had the feeling that today wouldn’t be our day and it turns out I was right.

“It is very difficult for Almanzor. It is so hard to bring a horse to a race like this after being stopped for ten months, it’s impossible.

“He rose to such heights at three it is difficult to get that back. People talk about racehorses like they are racing cars but if a car’s engine begins to tire, you take it out and replace it.

“You have to remember the best of times with him and they were really very good. The race at Leopardstown was the best field I have ever seen and he beat them all so well, you have to remember that when you think of his future as a stallion.

“No decision has been made and we’ll have to talk with all the partners, but he seems to have come back to the stables fine.”

[Author]

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