Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Yes, both the supporters and the detractors of Binocular can reasonably draw some support from his performance in the CH, I think. Binocular clearly isn’t a short runner or noticeably lacking in stamina on that evidence, but neither did he look to be a class above the rest and so, on the face of it, the betting for the race was both wrong and misleading. Of course, the fact that Binocular sweated up so noticeably beforehand does leave open the possibility that he wasn’t entirely right on the day and I do take that on board.
I did think that Binocular’s defeat, and even more so Kasbah Bliss’ defeat, illustrated how the advantage of a good turn of foot can quickly be negated in a strong run race at the Festival once the horses start up the hill to the finishing line. Physical strength/scope, battling quality and lung power seem to count for much more in those type of races/finishes than mere acceleration on its own or acceleration allied to the ability to travel well. And positioning also plays a key part, of course. I thought both Punjabi and Big Buck’s were given very good rides in terms of where they were positioned at key points in their respective races. Celestial Halo and Punchestowns deserve a lot of credit for getting so close to winning their respective races from race positions that were in some respects less favourable.
Yes, thanks for all your hard work on this, Bully. The competition added greatly to the fun of what has been a really enjoyable Festival, with some fantastic racing. Thanks too to everyone who has contributed to the Cheltenham threads. I certainly feel the excellent standard of commentary and debate on the forum has helped sharpen my edge for taking on the bookies this time.
1.30 Lethal Weapon (Trenchant)
2.05 Sky Hall (Culcabock)
2.40 Weapons Amnesty (On Raglan Road)
3.20 Kauto Star (Exotic Dancer)
4.00 Chilling Place (Chief Oscar)
4.40 Hangover (Piraya)
5.15 Oh Crick (NAP) (Clew Bay Cove)1.30 Northern Alliance (Ring the Boss)
2.05 P’Tit Fute (Green Mile)
2.40 Voy Por Ustedes (Imperial Commander)
3.20 Kasbah Bliss (Big Buck’s)
4.00 Ping Pong Sivola (Finger on the Pulse)
4.40 Shouldhavehadthat (NAP) (Poker De Sivola)1.30 Parsons Pistol (Forest Leaves)
2.05 Karabak (Mikael D’Haguenet)
2.40 Gone to Lunch (Killyglen)
3.20 Petit Robin (Briareus)
4.00 Mirage D’or (Pouvoir)
4.40 Ronaldo Des Mottes NAP (Higgys Boy)
5.15 Quinola Des Obeaux (Shinrock Paddy)1.30 Medermit (Kempes)
2.05 Tartak NAP (Golden Silver)
2.40 Maljimar (Millenium Royal RES NAP)
3.20 Celestial Halo (Ashkazar)
4.00 L’Ami (Garde Champetre)
4.40 United (Carole’s Legacy)
Yes, Aristo, I agree that if we get soft ground it won’t necessarily be against Binocular. His trainer has said that the horse would be fine on soft and Mick Fitzgerald, who rode the horse on contrasting ground, said earlier in the season that he he thought the horse felt better on soft than on better ground. The obvious caveat though is that soft ground is likely to make the race even more of a stamina test, assuming we get the usual strong pace, and Binocular does still have to prove just how well he stays the trip at Cheltenham in top company.
The race turned out to be quite a slog last year, though I think that was due to a combination of the strong winds, the rain soaked ground and the strong early pace that Osana set. Plenty of good horses never really got into the race and were well cooked at the top of the hill. If we get slow ground again this year, at least it should ensure a bit more space opens up on the second circuit to help the principals avoid trouble in running in such a big and competitive field. That should make it a bit easier to come with a run from the back and that type would be an obvious threat should those ridden prominently misjudge the pace on ground that may be hard to evaluate ahead of the race.
I agree with the point made earlier that pace more than ground may be the key to Jered, though even so I feel he does struggle a bit to pick up on soft/heavy and that negates one of the horse’s key advantages (i.e. his turn of foot) and that can make him look a much more ordinary animal than is actually the case. His hurdling, which has posed some problems in the past, certainly looks much better off a faster pace.
In today’s Post despite all the previous messages from Harry Findlay to the contrary (punted down to 8/1 for the County) the trainer seems to indicate he will go for the Supreme Novices. I doubt there will be any 25/1 left at the end of day.
I guess Big Eared Fran’s win gave the form a boost for Aachen and the forecast pointing to wetter conditions earlier in the week has probably given them encouragement to think about going for the SN.
I like both those picks, Bulwark. Issaquah looks a tough sort and has the potential to run much better in this race than the current big odds suggest.
I like Quevega and she’ll should come to Cheltenham fresher than some given her delayed start to the season. One concern I would have with her though is that she can get a bit buzzy before races. It hasn’t stopped her running extremely well in her races so far, of course, but with the travelling over to Cheltenham and the bigger crowds at the Festival, it makes me a bit wary of following her at a short price. Oscar Rebel has mixed it well with the boys in good company this season and certainly looks a far better prospect than the current 16/1 odds would suggest.
Whiteoak slipped somewhat under the radar to win the race last season against some more fancied runners, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen again this time.
Sorry, that should read six (not seven) wins for According to John, four on heavy ground. I must have been counting him as a winner next Tuesday already!
Not sure what his injury was, Tuffers. Trainer reported the problem came to light after According to John’s only run last season which was on ground with a bet less cut than he might have liked. It would be useful to know what the injury was though in order to form a better opinion about the likelihood of the horse retaining the ability he showed as a novice where he was third in a pretty good RSA.
According to John has seven wins and five of those have been on heavy ground, one on soft and the other on good to soft. I think he would be versatile enough to cope with better ground, but his record suggests that soft certainly wouldn’t inconvenience him.
I quite like According to John for this. He’ll enjoy the ground if we get the forecast rain for Monday/Tuesday and he ran well enough on his comeback this season to suggest he may retain the ability he showed in his novice season. If he does retain that ability/potential, he could be on a very lenient mark.
Great post, riverman. The only thing I would add is that I don’t believe the early pace will be a problem for either of them (although I take the point about Sentry Duty’s size – Nicky Henderson has made similar comments). As for lasting out the race, Sentry Duty has already proven he stays two and a half miles and stayed 1m7f on the flat so I would expect him to come up the hill pretty well.
The great thing about races like this is that you can make good arguments against quite a few of the horses. My aim is to find horses which I think are overpriced and at 33/1 I thought Sentry Duty was quite simply far too big a price. He’s been cut to 20s and 25s this morning with a few of the bookies so it may be the 33s won’t last much longer.
Yes, I very much agree about the price and 33/1 is big enough to allow for some reasonable reservations about the horse. What I like about Sentry Duty from a betting angle is that he may well be one that, as you implied in an earlier post, has slipped under the radar a bit at this stage. His runs at Cheltenham and Punchestown last spring wouldn’t inspire much confidence in the horse and that probably accounts for why he has been somewhat neglected in the antepost market for the CH. Having run in the Ladbroke and avoided what are seen as the major trials for the CH this season, has also kept him out the limelight to some extent. But taking on board that he was quite a highly rated horse on the flat and gave a sound enough beating to Celestial Halo at Doncaster over hurdles as well as winning the Ladbroke in quite good style, he may be one that just has that bit of class lerking to cause a surprise in the CH. With Binocular in the field, anyone looking for another one to back or an alternative to the favourite, it probably makes sense to look for one at a bigger price who (like Sublimity in 2007) has a sufficiently high flat rating to suggest he might potentially have the class to outperform on the day. Your initial post inviting discussion of Sentry Duty in relation to Binocular was particularly interesting in that respect.
Sentry Duty may also be a horse that has taken a while for the trainer to work out. If keeping him fresh is the key, that might explain the relatively poor showings at Cheltenham and Punchestown last season. He possibly needs more than a five or six week break between races, particularly major races, over hurdles. .He weakened noticeably in both those big hurdles races last season, but at a big price you could certainly give the benefit of the doubt that those races came too quickly as opposed to thinking his disappointing performance reflected inherent stamina limitations. As you say, Sentry Duty was running over the longer distances on the flat and faring well enough.
One other point to throw in perhaps is that presumably Sentry Duty is one that doesn’t need a lot of work to get right and can also race well after a significant break. Given the interruptions in training due to the snowy weather in January that Nicky Henderson has referred to, that might be a small advantage in favour of Sentry Duty against the other two contenders from the yard who are reported to take a bit more work to get right.
Of course, it might take the snows of Russia to stop Binocular winning on Tuesday, but nevertheless I think there will prove to be some good each-way value and value in the W/O Binocular markets right up to the off.
But then if you were to look at celestial halo’s time from last years triumph compared to sentry duty and binoculars in the supreme novice then Celestial Halo would make the other pair look slow.
Its easy to make a stayer look slow on good ground on a speed track, but its just as easy for that stayer to make them look like non stayers on more testing ground on a more testing track.
Celestial Halo made the running at ascot, but even he couldnt run it fast enough to run Binocular out of it on those conditions, probably the exact same in stamina and speed terms as a 1m6f horse trying to run a horse out of the eclipse. IMO Binocular has yet to prove he truly gets the trip around cheltenham on gd-sft, and Sentry duty has yet to prove he can win (or even run well) on gd-sft or worse ground. After last years triumph, if its the same ground again this year, celestial halo only has to prove that he can hold off a higher grade of opponent up the hill.
I dont know if celestial halo can win the triumph, as if he has to make the running, there could be a few resting out the back with more running in them up the hill, but he does look certian to be thereabouts at the finish.
If the ground is good then I’ll consider Binocular an easy winner with Sublimity, Sentry Duty, Won In The Dark, Harchibald and Punjabi possibilities for the tricast.
I think that is a very good summary, Bulwark, and it is a very interesting line of discussion that Tuffers opened up earlier. Sentry Duty does have it to prove in terms of handling ground conditions on the soft side of gd-sf or worse and he lacks a record of running well on undulating tracks. At the same time, he is still relatively unexposed and some of his poorer form might be excused in terms of the point his trainer makes that the horse is best fresh and needs long breaks.
In Sentry Duty’s favour for the CH is the fact they went a fair old pace early in the Ladbroke and much faster than the dawdle they went early on in the Boylesports. Horses that can withstand a fast early pace in a competitive field in good company and go on to win the race, have achieved something that is useful at least in terms of proving their credentials for the CH where the early pace is very often quite fierce. But then again, they didn’t come home particularly fast in the Ladbroke and, to my mind, that leaves open the question of just how much Sentry Duty will find on a stiff track in the CH where the pace of the race in the final third is likely to be quite intense in relation to what the horse has experienced previously. He is also a small horse who won’t find the gaps opening up quite as easily as he did in the Ladbroke where much of the opposition faded away in the final part of the race. He may have to endure a bit more fighting for position and barging for longer and at greater speed than he faced in the Ladbroke and physically perhaps won’t be the best placed horse to cope with potential traffic problems in what looks a very competitive CH (regardless of views about the possible superiority of the favourite).
With Binocular, the big test he is likely to encounter in the CH that he hasn’t really had to deal with before, is a very demanding early pace on an undulating track. By comparison with the early pace Osana set in the CH last year, the early pace in the Supreme Novices last year was less demanding. I think the fact that the pace in the SN was built up more gradually, is perhaps the main factor that accounts for why the times of the SN and CH were similar last year. Had the novices in the SN had to cope with such a strong early pace set in the CH (in very windy conditions for both races), I doubt they would have been finishing the race anything like as strongly as they did or recording times that compare quite so favourably with those achieved in the CH.
Again, in the Boylesports, Binocular didn’t have a strong early pace to contend with and while Celestial Halo made an effort to take them on, that horse never really piled on enough pressure to make the race a real test of stamina akin to the lung bursting type of race you usually get in the CH. So I feel there is a big issue about how well Binocular will cope with a fast early pace in terms of how it affects his performance in the final third of the race in the CH. It will take the horse into unchartered territory in terms of what he has experienced previously. He got up the hill well enough in the SN, but not spectacularly well, and that was off a relatively modest early pace. I know that a fast pace will play to Binocular’s strengths in terms of the fact that he travels and hurdles so well, but he still has to show he has the stamina and resilience to sustain that effort against the pressures of a likely fast early pace and a very long and demanding drive to the line from at least two out. At Ascot, Binocular could burn the opposition off with a sprint to the line, easily enough. If he is to make good use of his acceleration up the hill in the CH, though, he is going to need to have a lot of lung power and stamina too and which in his case has not yet been fully tested.
If Binocular can pull it off, that would be fantastic. To have a young horse that can win so impressively over two miles on speed tracks and also beat a very good field to win a truly run CH, would be something to rival what we are lucky to have with Master Minded i.e. a horse of outstanding class. Let’s hope the rain doesn’t spoil it on Tuesday and we get a fair test on good racing ground that doesn’t unduly disadvantage any of the horses with true class.
I like Micheal Flips for this, but slight concern he will get outpaced at some stage and not be able to get back into it. He has won on yielding, in a point-to-point, but has run only on good to soft or better over hurdles. If we get soft ground, it ought to play to his strengths stamina wise, but still needs to prove he handles that type of going.
One we haven’t discussed much on here is Kempes. A seven furlong winner on the flat, there is perhaps reason to think he might find the trip at Cheltenham too much of a stamina test. But he was also a winner of over 13 furlongs on the flat, with a top flat rating of 104. Also, his last win over hurdles was at Navan, a fairly testing track. I am not sure Kempes has beaten very much over hurdles so far. In his penultimate race though he had Roberto Goldback 6 lengths behind and that horse has run fairly impressively since. A slight worry with Kempes would be that his skill as a hurdler may be insufficient to match the speed he can muster when they start to race. He is likely to travel well, but might lack the fluency required over the hurdles in the later stages of the race to take advantage of his class.
Anyone else have any thoughts about Kempes?
Yes, Gone to Lunch makes some appeal to me, MCFC Stan. But I find I am getting to him more by default than anything. There are so many question marks about each of the likely contenders. If there is a potential Gold Cup winner of the future in the current RSA entries, it eludes me at present.
There was quite good value I think in Casey Jones when trading around 70s on the exchanges a few weeks ago, but his current odds around 20/1 are probably no better than a fairly accurate reflection of his chances. He would benefit from a bit better ground than he has been running on over winter and he is a kind of underestimated horse, but hard to imagine he has the quite the class of recent RSA winners, though it might just be a weak renewal this time.
Lightning Strike comes into it again now, as following his win today it looks like the RSA is the target. He might be one to put a line through straight away, given his jumping was pretty sketchy in his first two tries over fences and also some doubt about his stamina for the trip. Then again, between the fences there won’t be many better horses in the race and with the possibility of some improvement in his jumping he could still be one to consider at a big enough price. Lodge Lane’s form was reasonable enough earlier in the season, but his Cheltenham record is poor and his latest run concerning.
So I find I am kind of only seeing speculative punts for this race. Nothing really appeals yet as a solid favourite in my assessment. If I had to pick one to place, it would probably be What A Friend, but not much form to go on and we don’t know how well he will jump in a bigger field and where the pace might be a bit stronger than he has faced so far. Gone to Lunch ought to get the trip well enough and that is always worth a few brownie points in the RSA.
I think you have it about right in your assessment of MF, Aristo. Slower ground on the first day (a possibility with the watering can out) would obviously even things up a bit in his favour and I could see him finishing strongly up the hill after having got a bit outpaced earlier in the race. Whether he could emulate a run like that of Noland in this race would obviously depend greatly on how well the front horses judge the pace and whether the fancied speedier types truly last home in a race that often sees a lot of those who have been ridden prominently finishing very tired.
I seem to recall the time for that Kempton race was a bit faster than Harchibald recorded later in the day in the Christmas Hurdle. That is not particularly significant, as they didn’t set much of an early pace in Harchibald’s race. And the main issue with MF, I would say, is not so much whether he is capable of recording a good overall time for the distance, but more whether he has the acceleration to avoid being outpaced in key parts of the race at Cheltenham. He did well enough at Kempton to think he is not the slowest off the mark, but he is a fairly big horse who might just struggle to keep up as they quicken down the hill at Cheltenham.
MF is still not a bad each way price though i.e. for a horse that is likely to see out the trip very well and will probably benefit more than most from any momentum he is able to gain coming down the hill into the finishing straight. I would see even better value on Kempes at present though, even with the remaining doubt about his participation. Anything around 20/1 NRNB on Kempes would be attractive, I feel. Of course, like Cousin Vinny, there is a suspicion that Kempes may be one who is able to run a lot faster than he can jump once they begin to race. If he were in contention coming to the last, I would be very much holding my breath on that one.
