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Fingal Bay looks a good shout, narrowing the field had a section on him on this weeks blog backing up the theory of many that there’s a big prize lurking somewhere soon and also highlights how much an undulating track like Cheltenham could be ideal.
Great shout on traffic fluide.
Lot of calls for Ar Mad – I’m uneasy about the trainers doubts over left handed tracks and I’d also be concerned he’ll Go off in frontt, get in a battle with Douvan and suffer with the likes of Vaniteux and GlV picking up the places – can anyone convince me otherwise why he’s the best place bet? Wilsonl – I’m going to have another look over GLV’s form as you make a good case
Rocky – I was just about to post on here about Barters Hill and was hoping to get the opinions from people much more knowledge than me. Been incredibly taken with him and like you say had some serious form – I struggle to find a novice horse who’s form is as strong as his but will be underrated being with Ben Pauling.
Likely to go for the Albert Bartlet do we think? Sounds like the Challow Hurdle is next up but I get the impression another good showing in that could lead them down the Neptune route, with it being the ‘sexier’ race.
Who was the 10/1 with if you mind me asking? As I was weighing up a 20/1 Neptune and 14/1 Albert Bartlett otherwise
I would be amazed if Saphir du Rheu can beat Coneygree even with the weight allowance. For me SDR could have 20 odd pounds in hand and still he wouldn’t beat Coneygree purely because Coneygrees style of racing puts him under too much pressure and so far out of his comfort zone, hence the unseated rider and fall in their 2 races last season. Yes SDR has looked improved over fences on his last 2 runs but he’s had nothing to get him out of his rhythm. As soon as that happens his jumping leaves much to be desired
I read a description of Coneygree today from the same Ben Aitken article saying ‘he’s a big like Denman but a bit more refined’ and that sums him up perfectly for me and I can see a Denman-esque performance coming granted the ground doesn’t go against him.
Often the Gold Cup can leave a mark on a horse but based on Sandown and last Sunday, Coneygree is only going to get better and improve for that run.
Zamorston – I fully agree that he’s shown form for running in November and December and could definitely take in both races. Add in the fact he took to the track extremely well last Christmas (albeit a race that fell apart). But I think the Bradstocks know this too. They just don’t want to take in the race (imho)
Im not too sure about my balanced outlook and analytical powers, but I’ll happily go along with it
and no problem on the price. I’m extremely tempted myself. I’m a huge fan of Don Poli and have a small stake 20/1 on him for the Gold Cup which I took a week or so before the RSA run. During the festival – Wednesday evening I wished I had put a lot more on and was looking at a certain thing, come Thursday evening I had just witnessed that run by Vautour! (i won’t even go into then Friday and Coneygree) I’m always uneasy backing multiple horses in a race but may have to make an exception with this double.It’s a funny one with Vautour. I know Mullins isn’t the most open but does anyone else find it strange that he has never really clarified (unless I’ve missed it?) what his ‘problems’ have been in the past. I’m assuming it’s just his general demeanour and again trouble training rather than any injuries?
I think it would be fascinating just for interst if Mullins was to switch his priorities for a season and go all out to dominate the early season races – with his current setup I think he’d have the exact same level of dominance and almost certainly have a Lexus win to his name. I really do feel like a lot of the talk by many for Mullin’s string often having sub par runs over Christmas is just down to them often not being fully wound up and often needing the run and never hard pushed at this stage.
You are right though in that there will be a good few months between the King George and Gold Cup where he could give Vautour a break and then bring him back up – something which he has never really had to benefit from so my talk of only being to take in 1 big race a season could become redundant
It’s a real shame that Coneygree isn’t declared for this. Think the ‘computer glitch’ was them just backtracking after the backlash that followed though to how ridiculous it was not to even keep him in. Though let’s be honest backtrack to Feb/March this year and the same kind of calls from the vast majority of racing fans/jockeys/pundits were made on how stupid it would be running him in the Gold Cup as novice. And look how that turned out so I think it’s hard to question what they do with the horse.
Regarding his injuries – if I remember correctly he was found to be lame shortly before the 2013 festival and then had 2 injuries in the same hind leg (one being caused by him fooling around – known to be a bit bonkers around the gallops at times!) and a pelvic injury. But looking back now I cannot see much about how severe they were. I have to say I’ve only got into horse racing over the last couple of years so Coneygree kind of came from nowhere for me but I really am starting to fall in love with the horse.
Still with this race in mind the only way I think he’ll run in this is if he was to fall early on in the Hennessy (I think he will win) therefore wanting to get another proper run Into him and get him back on track. Otherwise I think it’ll be a case of top weight run in the Hennessy, plenty of time to recover and then maybe take in the Denman again come February like last year.
Back onto the race at this stage – I fancy Vautour…since beating The Tullow Tank in the Deloitte I’ve followed him without question with 2 spectacular runs at Cheltenham obviously the highlights. 2m-2m5 I’d once again have no doubt but I’m slightly dubious on staying the gold cup trip against SUCH a strong crop of the likes of Don Poli and Coneygree come Cheltenham but have little concern at Kempton’s track.
BUT like pointed out above my concern isn’t with the trip at all but how he is to train. You do get the impression that when it comes to the big races – he may be a horse that needs one target to focus on and gets trained hard just for that race to get him to perform to the best of his ability i.e the JLT last year. After that it’s either hard to keep him sound and racing as in missing Punchestown 2015 or likely there will be a drop in performance – Punchestown 2014.
We know that Mullins and Ricci are all about targeting the Spring festivals. I very much doubt Willie would be so hard on Vautour at Christmas time and risk any issues of not being 100% come the Spring and if that’s the case could he take on the likes of Don Cossack and Silviniaco Conti (both I feel have Kempton as a much bigger target than Vautour does rather than a ‘we’ll take in Kempton and see how he goes at the trip’ attitude to it) without being in full gear?
Steeplechasing – bet365 are still offering the 14/1 King George/Gold Cup double which is by far the best from all the firms I found.
And I echo the thoughts on this being a golden age for chasers. Again I missed the Kauto and Denman years so I’m hoping I’m about to witness something great that can be talked about in the same vein
Any news on Tell us More? Still haven’t lost hope in this once highly touted horse, always likely to improve over fences and one I’m keeping an eye on for the JLT
Any more news if Martello Tower is staying hurdling or going over fences? He definitely appeals if he sticks with hurdles – won’t find many who will outstay him
Agree it’s game over if Douvan turns up. I admit to doubting him for the Supreme last March but the hype certainly delivered and the regard Mullins and his team hold for him is huge. Dominated the novice hurdle division last year and can’t see him being troubled too much.
But as always with Mullins the question is where will he go. Despite the recent comments I’d be amazed if he stayed hurdling and either took on or took Faugheens place there, so surely it’s a case of Arkle or JLT?
I remember Willie saying Douvan likes a trip and maybe they want to campaign him like Vautour and go JLT with then the step up to Gold Cup the year later? but who would go Arkle if so? Alvissio Ville or Shanesill?
If Vautour stays – he more than likely wins in my opinion. As I really think he is the classiest horse in training right now. Looks like the King George will decide that. (though I’m keener on Coneygree winning that at the moment)
If he under performs on Boxing Day then I’m sure they’ll target the Ryanair leaving Djakadam and Don Poli and if that’s the case I’m going to be siding with Don Poli. I love the horse and although I don’t think the RSA last year was exceptional, to do what he did with so little experience and so win so easily was very very impressive. Just never turned up at Punchestsown so I’m happy to give him the benefit of the doubt. As above my only real concern is if he leaves himself too much to do before the hill by getting done for speed by Vautour and ending up outpaced and only staying on strongly up the hill to fill the places.
