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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

peter

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  • in reply to: Pointers……June #48151
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    <br>Your system may well have merits Kersly, but your betting too short…well thats my opinion anyway…

    You may be on to a winner here…but really you’ll have to keep going for about a year…for the system to have any value.

    Good luck with it…But I Bet you don’t stick it out though!<br>

    in reply to: Give me a B  Give me an F #47624
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    Steve I have tested many systems over the last few years. Many have been bought in good faith and really have shown to pointless and unsuccessful, but others have been shown to work and are still able to get a decent profit from the game.

    I have tested quite a lot of my own systems in areas like, runners that are top rated by the Daily Mail Formcast and runners within seven days, plus beaten favourites of course.

    Perhaps naively I get confidence from my systems as most have results shown with LSP and VSP profit. I have no way of personally verifying the claims at present, or further researching past results, however I have tested the systems at various stages and have whittled down a lot of systems into 6 which I have a distinct amount of confidence in their ability to attain profits in future.

    One of my favourite systems is The Triple Crown, you may have heard of it, this focuses on runners returning quickly to action – within 7 days and it continues to do well, with many adaptations now available on the market.

    I value the topspeed ratings in the post, especially over the jumps, one of my systems called Class Of The Field focuses on hurdle races to good effect.

    I like simple straight forward systems, because they are easy to remember, gosh its so easy to forget the rules at the bookies, plus I prefer to gain an understanding of why they encourage a certain strike rate, e.g they many be dropping in class, they may be clear top rated by Postmark and so forth.

    But at the end of my day at least I am taking a chance and probably a greater one than you Steve, as I don’t have the ability to test a mass of results from years gone by…

    in reply to: Give me a B  Give me an F #47621
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    I think values gotta beat strike rate, in the importance stakes anyway.

    Some sacrifice in sr is often needed to hail the decent priced selections and make a profit in the game.

    But for me strike rate is important, not just for profit inducement but for the confidence game…I only back single win you see and I always want as many winners as I can get.

    A high win sr gives a high place sr too – well it should do – I say in complete bliss cause I don’t know the facts fully in that case – but presume it to be true…God that was a long sentence!

    Well anyway…while gaining a decent strike rate, say 30% theres 70% losers out there and a mass of placed horses that just missed the grade…

    This a great oppourtunity, to cut your losses – at least systematically – because the odds are in your favour aren’t they…Just how you do it is open to opinion to question…I have factors that I feel determine a certain bet and if the horse doesn’t have those credentials then its open to question and possible abandonement.

    Steve…I’m wondering what specifics you rate as the greatest threats to your selections winning…See I have never considered draw before and personally I feel weight can be discounted in most cases…I place more emphasis on form ratings and fitness – to name just two!

    Theres so many God damn factors out there…I find initial thoughts are often the best though but its great when you’ve really done your best with knowing the form and the horse has gone to win in good style…Your might against the bookies…In yer face…bam…and its a winner….Yepeee!

    Like when I backed Moon Ballad – still theres some highs and some lows – in my case anyway – You can’t get out for nowt!

    I think your doing well there focusing on the specifics i.e different types of races…they certainly have different factors that influence the result.

    If only the holy grail were true, I know now that there is no fool-proof system. They all have positives and negatives, dangers and threats.

    I like simple straightforward systems that work – and I can see how they work too. It gives me greater confidence…though without the aid of some decent tech spec like RSB I have little chance of backing up a few theories or dispelling a few myths…You can but try and thats what I seem to doing, pretty much always, I think its best not to complacent in this game though and it always keeps the interest going.

    I agree with you Postmark is top notch, top draw stuff and I try to consider their ratings when placing my bets…There good to us those Racing Post guys aren’t they!

    in reply to: Give me a B  Give me an F #47614
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    Yeah Steve,

    I feel pretty new to the game when we’re talking here…yet I’ve been betting for 3 or 4 years now.

    Still knowledge shared can be a useful tool, I’m still learning pal.

    I guess I won’t be changing your mind set on sharing systems, which is a shame, though I can well understand the privacy issues. I could give you my e-mail address if you wanted. Anyway up you…

    I printed off a fantastic set of pointers a few weeks back about betting – you may have seen it – The Top 10 betting mistakes, from Mathematician racing via the Racing – Index. Its a top site the Index isn’t it.

    The factors there may well back up a few theories or help re-affirm beliefs. Who knows…

    I’ve always wondered how the form rating compilers mark up a race. I’m guessing the usual array of factors, class, form, weight, fitness and so forth play a part.

    I think the top two out there may well be Formcast from the Daily Mail and Postmark in the Post itself.

    The two classifiers do very well. What I’ve wondered about recently is when your system highlights a horse and its not top rated by them – then in effect your betting against there systematic criteria that forwards – what – a 27% strike rate from the Postmark at the last count.

    Still nobody can be right all the time and on many occasions the winner completely bypasses their top rated selections.

    Say there a system out there – in theory – that marks up every race in the Racing Calender. (Adrian Massey ratings gets close to that stipulation)  And their average strike rate is 26% flat 32% jumps – on many occasions your mark up for the race would differ from there’s. In effect you are consistently, though perhaps intermittently betting against another proven system that at some point is going to take your money…

    I may be going on a bit here but can you see my point on this one Steve. Its possible a system of ours could clash with a 10 year proven system with a strike rate of 48% and we would be in complete ignorance.

    Knowledge is key and a clear mind set helps too.

    What do you think Steve…

    in reply to: Give me a B  Give me an F #47611
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    Mate your good! I think I got that!

    Still interesting reading…and one which defines an area, that I’ve thought about about before… the games a big puzzle – and we’re just sorting out the pieces are’nt we!

    Prediction is the name of the game. Trying to find an area that will reep consistent, reliable performance and attain decent long term profits could never be easy…Or could it?

    With the technology at are disposal now the worlds our Oyster – as they say!

    From the Beaten favourite approach I relayed, the results were indeed backfitted…to gain optimum performance.

    The reasoning behind their success could only be speculated without further research – at a price I’m sure.

    Too much information can be a bad thing…Don’t you think?

    Its difficult to focus and feel committed (for me anyway!) when theres so many pathways to choose and choices to make…

    In addition systems can be used in different ways. The automated selection they provide (like Zero Tolerance today) could be used as a pointer, a guide to consider a possible bet. Thats where its gets difficult though! And you have to consider whats the point of any given system if its not automated.

    An area I’m thinking about at the moment is reducing my outlay. This is why the games so hard you play with one damn important commodity – Money. I think its best as in most speculation areas to be cautious, prudent and objective. Removing the emotion side of the game can help and is often recommended by the so called experts.

    Anyway where were we Beaten favs. Yes thats it. Feel free to forward a BF system – or similar that you think might work well in future.

    If your interseted I have a collection of systems that I could relay to you. Then you can tell me what you really think of them!  In regards to the profits that were shown in the past and the likelyhood of profit in the future.

    in reply to: Give me a B  Give me an F #47609
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    Hey your all right Steve, we all make mistakes mate!

    Thanks for the interest, time and energy that you have invested on my behalf.

    The initial results did seem impressive and I thought they would simmer down somewhat. Still nice to see an overall lsp there, even though it is marginal. But then again the game is the same, (that rhymed mate!) you have to take what you can get I guess.

    I’m unsure how you define backfitting – please tell me…

    You know 4% thats pretty damn poor to be frank. A profit can be shown however so we musn’t grumble, must we.

    I wonder if you could try and gain a better lsp, with the technology you have at hand, even if it does move away from the bearings of the initial system. Who cares if theres a profit involved.

    At present I can’t take all this info in. I will work more tomorrow or today even! its getting a bit late plus the Matrix has just stormed my mind. Theres some awesome stunts in there…Classic!

    I would like to clear up any misinterpretations, I’m lucky I was just going to throw the cds out but forgot, so they still could be used if required. Then again their on my file anyway… I tell you what I’ll do…thinking about it. I will relay the criteria exactly as stated and we will see where we can go from there…If your still interested in the plan of course.

    If you are we can look forward to gaining plenty of winners!

    All the best. Hope to speak to you soon.

    in reply to: Give me a B  Give me an F #47606
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    <br>Yeah I will try and show the selections and maybe even back em myself from the 1st of june. Until then have great end of month party…I’m sure you will….

    in reply to: Racing Tips #47575
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    <br>KENNY – I phoned Spicer racing and asked if they could verify the results with profit and loss accounts for the last few years. The fellow refused and said something like they were private and that would show there method of working. He was unhelpful and not at all forthcoming.

    The literature states a money back guarntee and it would need a yearly profit in the region of 200 points profit to gain the thousands suggested.

    However from my dealings, the dealer keeps a restrictive practice that shows his lack of honesty.

    The service may well work but I’m not willing to take that chance.

    My favs for service are Fineform and relayline, these are clear, honest and direct.

    All the best.

    in reply to: System Selections #46548
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    <br>Ok a couple of wiiners at decent prices & its my last day, to forward those Bfs.

    Even if not profitable the approach has proven that Beaten Favourites can provide winners time and time again – even in the worst month for nearly any method.<br>Later this year I will highlight an approach that is profitable through RSB testing and forward it, to members of the forum.

    Incidentally todays selection is Espilo De La Ronce 7.10 Ce. I would discount Bright approach 6.35 as its running against a forecast fav priced evens or less.

    And all my records will duly take into account that procedure.

    in reply to: System Selections #46547
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    <br>28/04/2003

    NEWSPLAYER   8.20W

    SCARLET SECRET   2.20W

    BLAKESET   4.25W

    in reply to: System Selections #46546
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    Up until the end of the month all BFs will be relayed. Then I will sum up the findings for the month of April.

    Remember I invite any member with system testing technology, to confirm selections or show any mistakes.

    in reply to: System Selections #46545
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    Plenty of bets lately. But we’re not firing on all cylinders are we. No matter, the systems are here for testing which will help us all in the long run.

    When I have the resources i.e Racing System Builder (A computerised tool for system testing) I will relay all my positive findings and give members some damn good quality, profitable systems that will make the grade. A minimum three years results – 25% strike rate will be my priority. Until then we can ponder, we can test, but we will not know the full story – Soon we will know the truth…

    in reply to: Racing System Builder #47329
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    I take your point Dave. Still I will strive to gain a profit from those BFs if I don’t make it, hey I’ve tried haven’t I.

    I feel they have potential you see. Week in week out BFs, course and distance winners, together with runners within seven days do better than expected. They provide a colossal amount of winners every year.

    There are good systems involving these particulars (with base strike rates in the 15% mark) that work very well indeed. A base sr is just that once its restricted to market leaders – that becomes the new rate – in effect its new base rate. With BFs a 35% base sr is returned with runners within the first third of the betting. Surely this is of some quality and has to respected within the game.

    When I have the resources to discover what systems prove most profitable I will post the rules and results on here so all members can share some decent information and start winning from the game. This summer I will  relay some quality systems well ready for the new National Hunt season. Until then I am going to focus on already proven types – like the Dowstian method and see where the results take me…

    in reply to: Racing System Builder #47326
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    Why never ever Dave. Surely you’ve got to seek and find the truth. Well I may be wrong here, but I feel the foundation of the system  is rock solid.

    BF’s provide cosistent returns year in year out. Over six years on turf – five years provided a base strike of 17%.

    When restricting all bets to those in the first third of the betting only a -3% loss was returned. Surely with added stipulations of class and form ratings a profit will be returned. I’ve been surprised by the power of the system over several months now.

    Check out http://www.flatstats.co.uk click on Turf systems and read the results from six years analysis. It will probably blow you mind with stats – it did with me – all the same the potential benefits of beaten favs are there for all to see.

    Thanks for the your help –  I will try to get in touch with RSB…

    in reply to: Racing System Builder #47319
    peter
    Member
    • Total Posts 57

    Thanks for the reply Dave. Today – as you know – their are countless systems on the market. Personally I feel there impact on prices is restricted for these reasons.

    1)  The great majority are poor and<br>      unprofitable.

    2)  People do not use them correctly – as in a decent   <br>      time period – they are put off by a few losing runs<br>      and then abandon the approach.

    3)  People do not have the time, inclination and <br>      finance to power efficient sytems testing.

    4)  The mass of punters out there are motivated by<br>      greed and driven by emotion. They want instant <br>      results and fail to acknowledge that without <br>      investing in the game they are likely to lose.

    With these factors in mind, I feel that even with profitable systems (and services) being freely available their impact in the market is restricted. Of course they do have an effect but I feel to throw away an edge over other punters by fronting a sysem is very improbable – unless everyone in the country is using it – which is bloody unlikely!

    A good point you make refers to the betting exchanges. These do have a ready impact on prices, but the factors I’ve mentioned still apply, in addition the exchanges can be used to the backers benefit by gaining the lowdown on market movers, drifters and laying systems – losing bets can be avoided.

    I feel that the abolition of betting tax has had some effect on prices, for better or for worse I do not know, but the industry in the UK thrive on control and authority, they have to stay profitable of course. But we have an effective weapon – choice – they have to bet in every race.

    Thats where systems can play there part, by removing the doubts, insecurities and form study that has to be undertaken to win. Hell I know its not easy but it can be done and systems provide one of the best ways to gain an edge and hold a profit from the game.

    Heres a system Dave – That my well be profitable.<br>If you can help me out here, I will be able to decide whether or not to use it in the near future.

    <br>1)  Beaten fav last time out.

    2)  In first two of the Racing Post betting forecast.

    3)  Priced 2/1 to 15/2 inclusive.

    4)  Running in same class or a lesser value race than <br>     when defeated.

    5)  Do not bet at Ayr, Brighton, Pontefract or York.

    6)  16 declared runners or less.

    <br>Any manipulation or impact from other factors, available for testing will be greatly appreciated. If you could get three years results from your RSB this would give me the confidence to start playing with big money!

    Thank you for helping me out here. All the best.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 44 total)