April 23, 2003 at 18:28 #1171
For all the approcahes relayed on the forum, including my own – one aspect is clear – they offer little hope to anyone in making profit out of the game.
Why is this so, well the majority are haphazard, and are likely to offer no long term potential. Certainly they will show winners, any half decent approach will do that. But the mass will not provide consistent returns at good prices.
I am not claiming greatness here or professing that I know all the answers. Nearly every day I learn something of value. You see this is the conundrum of form, prices, fitness, class and so forth. Factors are whirled around like a washing machine, and we the novices must seperate the spin from the substance.
You will see from Adrian Masseys website that many – so called worthy factors have little impact on gaining winners. Proven factors over the years like the market position last time out and race fitness do have an impact. But they’re is no magic solution they must be allied to other factors like good recent form or speed to be worthwhile.
Forum members will continue in the same stated approach – unless someone is prepared to relay the results of proven systems on the market. A practice that is unethical and often subject to copyright infringement.
The only other viable option is for a member who has access to RSB – Racing System Builder to forward results that are proven and worthy of following. Until this day approches many members will be none the wiser in unravelling the glorious uncertainties of racing.<br>April 23, 2003 at 21:42 #47311
This is a very interesting thread peter, I think that alot of Punters don’t know what to expect .. if you know what I mean. If you try a system how do you know it’s successful in the long term? Even if you paper trade it for a full year. There are many profitable systems that only produce a couple of bets a week some of these are prone to losing YEARS.
You’ve stated that RSB would help in the quest for winners. This is exactly correct, but not in the way that you would think. The expectation of producing profitable systems has left alot of people who bought the program disappointed with it. You don’t only have the expense of buying the software, there are daily down loads which also cost, at least Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£2 a day, depending on what sort of service you want. And then once you’re systems are set up and your getting your downloads there’s no guarantee that the systems that worked last year will work this year.
There’s been alot of talk recently about Adrian Massey, he does produce good quality ratings and LSP, which is very encouraging. But he is also prone to losing runs and his profitablility is skewed by long priced winners. Massey get losing runs of 20 or more regular, if you were to bet all his horses. If your selective you’ll still get runs of 12 or more every month … so what’s the answer …
I think you have to get good with selecting the horses, better than the system route and more importantly you have to get even better at staking.April 24, 2003 at 08:49 #47312tttracingMember
- Total Posts 184
Hi Peter, Dave,
I am a fan of RSB for a very simple reason: It holds a vast amount of searchable and impartial data.
Dave is correct in what he said above and in another thread – RSB does tend to lead you down the route of using their download service. Nothing wrong with that as they are a business after all, and business is all about getting you through the door and then moving you up the value chain (e.g. selling you more than you went in for!). RSB has helped me get up to a ‘professional’ level and I personally think it is essential if you are serious about serious backing.
I have had a long exchange of correspondence with co-founder Tim Drakeford recently relating to RSB in general and he said something you will find interesting:<br>"When we set up Racedata Modelling back in 1995, you (e.g. me!) were precisely the type of customer we had in mind ; not necessarily a computer whizkid, but someone who wanted to use logic and empiricism to help them backing horses – either as a complete amateur or in a professional or semi-professional way."
I dont think I could describe what the software means to me better. I am computer competent but not a whizzkid. I use logic and data to drive my winner finding. The great benefit in using the software is that you can test out all of your sytems, gut feelings, experience and theories in a logical, impartial, data-centric way. The stats dont lie – if you have a positive vibe about backing Loder first time out, or Cecil at Lingfield in December, or anything – you can check it all in moments. Once you have a basic theory going well then you can test out the remaining variables and decide what is important and what is not. As Dave says – it is surprising how unimportant a lot of factors are. I wont give any secrets away but my whole ‘professional’ outlook is based upon three factors which when combined are as powerful a combination as you will find! RSB helped me fine tune my approach.
The great pitfall that I have seen people drop into when using the software is in randomly combining incompatible factors just because they show a profit and then wondering why it doesnt work in the long run – any method has to be underpinned by logic and thought and based upon the fundamental principles of the game it is based upon. It is easy to show that Fillies trained by the 9th ranked trainer at Epsom in D handicaps who were 6th last time out, based on a sample size of 15 races over 10 years, show a profit. The question you have to ask is this: are you driving the data or is the data driving you?
Your post Peter is spot on – I am as amazed now as I was when I joined at the number of people on web forums who paper trade for 2 weeks, post a system, fail to show a profit over 10 days and then start again – using the same short term biased logic at the start of each failed attempt. Good luck to them, they may hit on something, they are obviously enjoying it – but without a long term, logical, data driven approach they will probably never break out of the paper trade vicious circle and make any serious money.April 24, 2003 at 10:10 #47313stephen12000Member
- Total Posts 13
Learning to use simple spreadsheet and database software has made a big difference to me, it’s easy to see where strengths and weaknesses lay in any system in real time by keeping quite simple records. I can’t see why using these types of software and data from the racing post etc that you cant do something similar to RSB yourself. It’s quite surpising when you discover that a certain filter or filters you thought were doing you good is in actual fact reducing profit. Not so easy to spot that when you are using pen and paper.April 25, 2003 at 02:30 #47316
Thanks for the feedback guys. Its the best I’ve had from the forum up to yet.
I feel that good systems can offer awesome potential to anyone to quickly make profits from the game. This is due to my experience and like all gamblers I tend to remember the good times more. Poor systems can be destructive and waste one damn important commodity – money.
This is why they should – as you say be well planned and driven by logical approaches. Countless factors have little impact on the quest for winners. Good recent form allied to market confidence does along with a whole host of others like speed, form ratings, class etc make a difference.
Regarding staking and systems. Its a 50:50 balance. Is it a bet or not? Am I tempted or not? and other countless factors spring to mind just before a likely bet. I guess this is the buzz, the desire and the greed that I feel before parting with cash. You play your money you take the chance. But you want to win.
The issue for me is that a mix match of system plans and my own bets have led to my downfall. 17,500 staked 15,500 back is not good at 22 is it! Hell what am doing with my life, well hopefully making a change for the better and gaining some decent profits soon. We will see.
Dave are you saying here that you have the RSB software. Would you be open to systems testing for us members. Its entirely up to you of course but any help would be, I’m sure well received and gratifying for many.
All the best to everyone. <br>April 26, 2003 at 15:38 #47317
Hi Peter .. IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ve read through this a few times and hope that it doesnÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t state the obvious or offend in any way but I feel that you deserve a proper response to your question.
Firstly, my comments about RSB charging for their daily rating service is not a put down on RSB, just an observation. I subscribe and get the down loads myself and I wouldnÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t do so if I didnÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t think they werenÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t any good. The point I was really making was about ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‹Å“ExpectationÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ve read on other Forums that Punters are not happy with the RSB program because the systems that they write donÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t produce the type of systems that they thought they were going to get. Their expectation vastly outweighs reality and more to the point the real world of profitable betting. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â You simply arenÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t going to win every day or every week come to that.
Peter a point that seems to be lost on people using Forums in general, is one that is made very well by Alan Potts in his book; ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‹Å“Against The CrowdÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢, to quote: ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‹Å“The crux is that winning punters do not take their profits from the bookies, but from losing punters.ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ He argues that without losing punters there cannot be winning punters. So, logically speaking, if a punter has a winning system and then he shares that information with other punters, he is beginning to lose his edge before heÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s even realised his potential profit because he has converted some of his sponsors (losing punters) into winning punters. On the blackest side should anyone really help anyone else?
Well, there is room for assistance, but not a straight giving away of information ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Â¦ ttt says he has a system which he uses that is profitable. He wonÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t give any more away than that and why should he? No-one expects him to !! He would be throwing away his edge for nothing ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Â¦ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Â¦ because if it was really good his selections would end up being posted up on Forums for the hungry masses to murder on the exchanges. And heÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢d be sat waiting and hoping and praying that he could get 6/4 about a horse that he would have been getting 5/2 on a year ago.
If you want any systems put through RSB drop me a PM and let me know which rules you want checked and IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢d be happy to assist ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Â¦ the results should not be put up on the open forum for the above mentioned reasons.April 27, 2003 at 11:21 #47319
Thanks for the reply Dave. Today – as you know – their are countless systems on the market. Personally I feel there impact on prices is restricted for these reasons.
1) Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â The great majority are poor and<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â unprofitable.
2) Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â People do not use them correctly – as in a decent Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â <br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â time period – they are put off by a few losing runs<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â and then abandon the approach.
3) Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â People do not have the time, inclination and <br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â finance to power efficient sytems testing.
4) Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â The mass of punters out there are motivated by<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â greed and driven by emotion. They want instant <br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â results and fail to acknowledge that without <br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â investing in the game they are likely to lose.
With these factors in mind, I feel that even with profitable systems (and services) being freely available their impact in the market is restricted. Of course they do have an effect but I feel to throw away an edge over other punters by fronting a sysem is very improbable – unless everyone in the country is using it – which is bloody unlikely!
A good point you make refers to the betting exchanges. These do have a ready impact on prices, but the factors I’ve mentioned still apply, in addition the exchanges can be used to the backers benefit by gaining the lowdown on market movers, drifters and laying systems – losing bets can be avoided.
I feel that the abolition of betting tax has had some effect on prices, for better or for worse I do not know, but the industry in the UK thrive on control and authority, they have to stay profitable of course. But we have an effective weapon – choice – they have to bet in every race.
Thats where systems can play there part, by removing the doubts, insecurities and form study that has to be undertaken to win. Hell I know its not easy but it can be done and systems provide one of the best ways to gain an edge and hold a profit from the game.
Heres a system Dave – That my well be profitable.<br>If you can help me out here, I will be able to decide whether or not to use it in the near future.
<br>1) Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Beaten fav last time out.
2) Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â In first two of the Racing Post betting forecast.
3) Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Priced 2/1 to 15/2 inclusive.
4) Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Running in same class or a lesser value race than <br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â when defeated.
5) Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Do not bet at Ayr, Brighton, Pontefract or York.
6) Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 16 declared runners or less.
<br>Any manipulation or impact from other factors, available for testing will be greatly appreciated. If you could get three years results from your RSB this would give me the confidence to start playing with big money!
Thank you for helping me out here. All the best.April 27, 2003 at 14:58 #47321
Don’t use that system peter .. never, ever!!!
In one of Nick Mordin’s books he talks at some length of the ‘lifespan of a system’ … once everyone has caught on, punters, layers and bookies then the system is finished. In your post you seem to disagree with that statement as well as what ‘Alan Potts’ has to say on the matter, interesting!!
You can get 2 years of RSB records for free from their site. If you nip in there and get the telephone number give them a ring and the demo discs will be on the way to you free of charge.
Good Luck.April 27, 2003 at 17:21 #47326
Why never ever Dave. Surely you’ve got to seek and find the truth. Well I may be wrong here, but I feel the foundation of the system Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â is rock solid.
BF’s provide cosistent returns year in year out. Over six years on turf – five years provided a base strike of 17%.
When restricting all bets to those in the first third of the betting only a -3% loss was returned. Surely with added stipulations of class and form ratings a profit will be returned. I’ve been surprised by the power of the system over several months now.
Check out http://www.flatstats.co.uk click on Turf systems and read the results from six years analysis. It will probably blow you mind with stats – it did with me – all the same the potential benefits of beaten favs are there for all to see.
Thanks for the your help – I will try to get in touch with RSB…April 27, 2003 at 17:44 #47327
Peter you would be just as well to follow stephen’s good advise and learn how to use databases and spreadsheets … stephen’s post is good reading.
Why never ever ?? a base strike arte of 17% is a terrible place to start. If every runner on average has a 10% chance of winning (which it does) then your starting point isn’t even twice as likely to win as any other horse .. Impact Values and all of the stuff on Flatstats is okay. But it makes you wonder why they put up a system like that as a good starting point, when an agreed BASE strike rate of 23% is required for any reasonable system.April 28, 2003 at 00:45 #47329
I take your point Dave. Still I will strive to gain a profit from those BFs if I don’t make it, hey I’ve tried haven’t I.
I feel they have potential you see. Week in week out BFs, course and distance winners, together with runners within seven days do better than expected. They provide a colossal amount of winners every year.
There are good systems involving these particulars (with base strike rates in the 15% mark) that work very well indeed. A base sr is just that once its restricted to market leaders – that becomes the new rate – in effect its new base rate. With BFs a 35% base sr is returned with runners within the first third of the betting. Surely this is of some quality and has to respected within the game.
When I have the resources to discover what systems prove most profitable I will post the rules and results on here so all members can share some decent information and start winning from the game. This summer I will relay some quality systems well ready for the new National Hunt season. Until then I am going to focus on already proven types – like the Dowstian method and see where the results take me…June 5, 2003 at 09:24 #47331GeneMember
- Total Posts 4
Hi guys anyone got the url for Racing Systems Builder tried the obvious no luckJune 7, 2003 at 00:07 #47333
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.