[onefurlongout]

Hi everyone,

Its been a while since I posted on here but I’ve finally got a few spare hours and thought I would revisit some of my old posts. Thanks to all those that have helped me in the past.

Sorry to hear about the debacle at raceexpert, hope that one works itself out as it did see like a decent format for picking winners. Is anyone still using it as they are still promoting the site and looking for new subscribers

Due to the lack of racing over the past few weeks I have been using patternform to pick my runners. Following a PF members process has pretty successful nothing spectacular but enough to keep me happy.

Now that the normal racing has resumed I’d be interested to hear if anyone has used patternform and whether they think it can be used for the jumps?

[onefurlongout]

Thanks for the replies guys, with my luck i’d probably wipe the bank

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Havent assessed the race but what about Equaino with Peslier back on board ??

Might like the rain if it comes

[onefurlongout]

Good luck tenbob

My ratings give

Horse Rating Score
KIRKLEES 3133
CURTAIN CALL 2410
TAZEEZ 2082
ALLIED POWERS 1914
HALICARNASSUS 1727
MACORVILLE 1644
MONITOR CLOSELY 1424
SMOKEY OAKEY 1040
KINGS GAMBIT 342

Tricky race and cant decide out of the top 3. Might see where the money goes in the AM

[onefurlongout]

Hi Actury,

Thanks for the post, I’m still developing the system to analyse races, mainly by reducing the number of selections that I make each day.

Still a long way to go

[onefurlongout]

Thats a classic response.

I didnt belive the figures if I’m honest but I have heard that laying short priced favourites is a method used by many.

I really like searching out winners but if i could run something to pay for that then that would be ideal.

In truth I’m probably living in dreamworld

[onefurlongout]

sadly the site is down again

[onefurlongout]

Sounds good to me Dave.

Does anyone know if there any of these ‘systems’ planned for a re-release on the iphone?

A mate of mine develops apps and we were only talking about this during a day at chester races on Sat

[onefurlongout]

great shout on Spacious, I was with heaven sent

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Seriously hope you are right today Trendsman, my process has pulled out a number of your selections.

Will make up for yesterday

[onefurlongout]

I had two main bets yesterday

Delegator and Fleeting Spirit, both Win Only.

My stakes were not massive but I’m hoping for better today

[onefurlongout]

Hey Our Vic, great write up ala 606.

Have you moved over?

OFO (aka OrtonOwl)

[onefurlongout]

Afternoon all,

That meant the process had 483 races where there was 1 top pick. From these 483 races there were 106 winners (22%)

At £5 stakes this would mean Stake + returns of £2196.20. losing stakes would be £1885. Producing a difference of £311.20

Hi OFO,

My reading of the above is that at £5 stakes you end up losing £218.80.
Am I right?

Kevin

Hi Kev,

I thought the same as (1666.20-1885) = -£218.80. So what is the £311.20?

[onefurlongout]

Afternoon all,

I assessed 672 in total over the past month applying the same system to every race. This has produced me with plenty of data so now time to assess the results.

From 672 races there were 181 winners (27%). Ave Price 3/1
From the 672 assessments 189 came out equal in the selection process with another horse. That meant the process had 483 races where there was 1 top pick. From these 483 races there were 106 winners (22%)

At £5 stakes this would mean Stake + returns of £2196.20. losing stakes would be £1885. Producing a difference of £311.20

During the assessment the distances varied alot eg 5f 43y 6f 110y etc. These races were few and far between so I just concentrated on the results of those races where the distance was standard. (why is there a 5f 5f 43y race?

For 5f races there were 96 runs and 28 winners (29%) Ave Price = 5/2
@ £5 per race Stake + Rtns = £517.35. losing bets = £340. Difference £177.35

For 6f races there were 83 runs and 22 winners (27%) Ave Price = 7/2
@ £5 per race Stake + Rtns = £494.35. losing bets = £305. Difference £189.35

For 7f races there were 50 runs and 6 winners (12%) Ave Price = 6/4
@ £5 per race Stake + Rtns = £84.10. losing bets = £30. Difference £54.10

For 1m races there were 68 runs and 13 winners (19%) Ave Price = 3/1
@ £5 per race Stake + Rtns = £281. losing bets = £275. Difference £6

For 1m 2f races there were 71 runs and 21 winners (30%) Ave Price = 5/2
@ £5 per race Stake + Rtns = £377.90 osing bets = £250 diference £127.90

For 1m 3f races there were 15 runs and 7 winners (46%) Ave Price = 4/1
@ £5 per race Stake + Rtns = £190. losing bets = £40. Difference £150.

obviously I’ll need to complete a lot more races to have 700 for each distance. I’m affraid that this will not be possible.

If anyone who has conducted similar analysis I’d be interested to hear what ‘other’ areas I should look at.

Thanks

[onefurlongout]

Just for info. I’m up to 634 assessed races so I’ll hopefully have some form of results by the end of the weekend.

[onefurlongout]

I havent even thought about possible betting banks, something to ponder when the results are in

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Thanks Douginho.

The plan is to work out from a large amount of data which races are showing the most favourable results 5f races are showing the best early results so dfar but this could be refined even further.

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