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Royal Ascot – Punters Paradise?

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  • #11780
    Pompete
    Member
    • Total Posts 2391

    As someone who couldn’t careless where and on what I mug-up on, I’ve always been intrigued by the insistence of some to only punt in the ‘better class of races’. Usually, but not always this assertion is accompanied with an air of authority and also a certain superiority – all mugs are equal but some are more equal than others.

    While understanding the basic theory: better class horses are more consistent, the form-lines are stronger and trainers/jocks are always trying etc, is this really the only road to profitable punting? And, if so, should it be that anybody not making a profit this week should seriously think about giving up backing the gee-gees.

    #234498
    Onthesteal
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    As someone who couldn’t careless where and on what I mug-up on, I’ve always been intrigued by the insistence of some to only punt in the ‘better class of races’. Usually, but not always this assertion is accompanied with an air of authority and also a certain superiority – all mugs are equal but some are more equal than others.

    While understanding the basic theory: better class horses are more consistent, the form-lines are stronger and trainers/jocks are always trying etc, is this really the only road to profitable punting? And, if so, should it be that anybody not making a profit this week should seriously think about giving up backing the gee-gees.

    I suspect that the type of punter that only chooses to bet in the higher class of race is just sick of losing good money in bad races over a long period. They’ve all been there at some stage, Pompete. :lol:

    As much as I love racing and a punt in general, I myself have started to bet with more restraint and it makes sense. Of course, you’ll miss those days when you back a nice priced winner (some pile of crap) at Brighton for no particular reason other than it’s a horse, but in the long run we’re going to lose and this is just not good enough for some :shock: :wink:

    I don’t know if there’s any ‘superiority’ thing in it really; some do take it more seriously than others (clearly!) and so you could possibly draw that from their attitude?

    And, if so, should it be that anybody not making a profit this week should seriously think about giving up backing the gee-gees.

    No, but more punters lose than win on average (even the serious ones) so it’d be good advice to 80% us…

    #234499
    Grasshopper
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2316

    I shall make my annual pilgrimage of denigration, within the depths of this post and state here – for the record – that you Flattie ***** deserve all you get for encouraging this sh*ite.

    #234504
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    I suspect that the type of punter that only chooses to bet in the higher class of race is just sick of losing good money in bad races over a long period. They’ve all been there at some stage, Pompete. :lol:

    As much as I love racing and a punt in general, I myself have started to bet with more restraint and it makes sense. Of course, you’ll miss those days when you back a nice priced winner (some pile of crap) at Brighton for no particular reason other than it’s a horse, but in the long run we’re going to lose and this is just not good enough for some :shock: :wink:

    I don’t know if there’s any ‘superiority’ thing in it really; some do take it more seriously than others (clearly!) and so you could possibly draw that from their attitude?

    And, if so, should it be that anybody not making a profit this week should seriously think about giving up backing the gee-gees.

    No, but more punters lose than win on average (even the serious ones) so it’d be good advice to 80% us…

    Well I think every punter’s been at the place you describe in the first paragraph, but I don’t see the issue. We all learn and we all (hopefully) learn from our mistakes and adapt. With pattern races, you’ve got jockeys who will always be trying, horses who will always be tuned up, you can trust the form, etc. There’s also far less pattern racing obviously, so at least if you’re crap at betting in them then you’ll lose less than if you’re crap at betting in everything.

    #234523
    % MAN
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5104

    The trouble is though even though the form is more consistent you still try to be too clever and look for the longer priced winner that may provide the shock result.

    It was certainly my downfall yesterday :cry:

    #234527
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    My only hard and fast stipulation is that I steer clear of competitive handicaps – especially sprints.

    They are too much like guesswork.

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #234529
    Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    If Meehan had given Delegator one more gallop (I tend to think he undercooks his horses – is there a trainer in the country who has a higher percentage of second places?), then this post would not exist. The difference in the narrative between the wails of a crying bookie and and a night of backslapping in Crockfords is the thickness of a horse’s head.

    Pete, for every day when hot favourites have the crowds throwing their top hats in the air, there are days where the hotlines to GA glow red hot. In the long run – irrespective of the grade of race – days like yesterday are fantastic for the bookmaker and terrible for the punter, because they are an illusion.

    #234548
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5620

    days like yesterday are fantastic for the bookmaker and terrible for the punter, because they are an illusion.

    Spot on. Tales of ‘carnage in the ring’ amd ‘carrying out on stretchers’ fans the punters’ fire and keeps the dream alive; there’s no news like bad news.

    As for betting and class of race in my case a rough-and-ready approximation would be: returns are inversely proportional to both field size and class

    The 7 runner handicap chase at Worcester today represents the beau ideal of betting fodder though few seem to be heeding J Neesom’s words :(

    Manipulate the mundane but just admire the ‘class’

    #234551
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    I won yesterday but only because I backed Canford Cliffs a month ago. It is wrong to assume everyone had a winning day. Those who like to lump on at short prices probably did – even then they may have come unstuck with Gladiatorus. Personally, I don’t feel that I get enough right at short prices to back in that way. Having said that if a favourite looks pretty solid I don’t think it is worth trying to find supposedly clever ‘angles’ why it should get beat.

    #234581
    onefurlongout
    Member
    • Total Posts 197

    I had two main bets yesterday

    Delegator and Fleeting Spirit, both Win Only.

    My stakes were not massive but I’m hoping for better today :)

    #234590
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Pete, it would stand to reason that the best horse in every race and the one most likely to win is the favourite.

    If it was true that higher class races were easier to predict than lower class races then the prices of the favourites in the higher class races would be shorter than those in the lower class races. Like they are with handicaps and non-handicaps.

    The statement implies though that higher class races offer better value than lower class races when in fact there is absolutely no difference. In fact the opposite is more likely be true, imo.

    #234643
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    I have to say that I’m coming around to the view expressed in this thread. I’ve spent all of May and early June giving back half the spoils of a great start to the year by betting in poor flat handicaps. The most distressing aspect is that horses with rock-solid chances on the book who I back in the morning at prices that look value drift out during the day and run accordingly. This could mean that either I’m a poor judge or that there are other factors at work in this type of racing: either way I need to stop the bleeding. I’m resolving to stick to the better class stuff with a few exceptions for the rest of the Flat.

    Just to give an example of the type of thing I mean- I really fancied Mohawk Ridge in the 2:55 Hamilton after a cracking run against a bias last time. I was hoping to get 6/1 but find he’s easy to back at 8/1 on the machine. There was a time I’d have had more on, now I think I’ve done my dough. You might say the ground could be a bit fast for him but there’s been rain up there this morning.

    #234652
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4825

    The problem with the good stuff is that every angle is analysed ad naseum in the media for weeks beforehand and it tends to make the prices very, very efficient these days.

    The majority of the poorer stuff punters know less about, which tends to provide better prices. Definitely take on the board the points about non triers and inconsistent horses but lots of bets to smaller stakes evens that out over the long term.

    #234656
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    In fairness CR it’s really only the races with active ante-post markets which are heavily analysed days and weeks beforehand and you have the option of getting involved earlier. I find plenty of juice in most of the Royal Ascot races even on the day.

    #234660
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4825

    Fair point carvills.

    #234700
    Young Mick
    Member
    • Total Posts 203

    I am thinking of giving up! Went in too heavy on Lush Lashes and Tartan Bearer! and to cap it off… a 16/1 2nd and a 25/1 2nd in the tipping competition tut tut.. COME ON YATES!

    #234884
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    I’ve long held the view that it’s better to stick to higher class races, stakes, or handicaps, for a number of reasons.
    Firstly, one is dealing with a much smaller pool of horses, so it’s easier to familiarise with profiles, foibles, ground preferences etc, and they are eligible for a much smaller pool of races, so it’s often easier to see what trainers are trying to do with their charges. There’s also much more discussion/information/interviews about the better races in the media, so it’s easier to check that one’s view of their form is in line with connection’s thinking.
    Prize money is also a major incentive for horses to be ‘up’ for a race, and form for races like the Hunt Cup and the Cambridgeshire invariably works out more reliably in later races than it does from lower class races. Markets are also more robust, and are unlikely to be ruined by a few early quid here and there, and any effiency in prices should be more than ameliorated by more specific knowledge of actual chances brought about by specialising in the first place.
    Also, imo, it’s no old wive’s tale that June/July/August are the easier months to make profit, as with more meetings, regular 3/4/5 day festivals, and more consistent and predictable ground conditions, the pendulum swings more in the punters favour.
    Without wishing to sound at all blase, anyone who loses substantially, on the 5 day Royal meeting on entirely predictable and consistent ground, really ought to have a re-think.

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