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Brico,<br>Very many thanks for taking me through the process.<br>I’ve definitely got it now!<br>Ollie
Bricoman,
I think the bit that can get confusing is in determining the surplus and best meeting for the selection.
For example based on current selection box criteria (I accept these may fill up overnight) we have:
Catt (average prize money 3359)<br>Super sammy 8 picks, race value 3981<br>Gary’s pimpernel 9 oicks race value 2023
Ling (average prize money 1495)<br>2.10 yankeedoodle dandy 10 picks race value 1641<br>4.10 9 picks race value 1267
Southwell (average 4010)<br>1.00 The Fisio 8 picks Race value 4046<br>1.30 Magic mammas 10 picks (race value 2905)
In this situation where there are 2 clear picks, I’m not clear how you derive a shortlist when all three meetings have only one race above average prize money value (ie surplus), are the ones below average discounted from further analysis or are both races at that course discounted if one of them has no surplus?<br>If one can count then Yankeedoodledandy might qualify at Lingfield as it is an AM 3 star top?<br>Cheers and sorry to be such a pain!<br>Ollie<br>
(Edited by Ollie at 9:51 pm on Jan. 14, 2004)
Bricoman and Rex,
Very many thanks for your comments, the RP today (which sadly I didn’t get a copy of) must have had more complete selection boxes than those on the website last night! <br>I’m not complaining though as I worked out last night (like Rex) that Keltic Bard was the likely selection and backed it at almost 2/1 on Betfair (thanks Brico!)<br>If you’re interested in my (possibly erroneous) workings out:
Last night:<br>Leic: Keltic Bard 10 picks, Real Shady 8 picks.
Sedgefield: Be my valentine 8, Lord Alyn 9 and Jordan’s Ridge 8 therefore discounted.
Southwell: Glory Quest 10, Najabba 8 (but discounted as prize money below average for meeting)
Does that make sense?<br>Cheers <br>Ollie<br>
Daz,
Thanks for clarifying forecast on SL site, a nice 11/4 winner today, well done.:cheesy:
Bricoman,<br>Well done on your system, I shall also keep an eye on your progress as well as Daz’s.<br>I couldn’t help but sympathise going through your thread was that one of your few losers was on the day your mates were going to the track, life can be a bitch sometimes!<br>One thing puzzles me slightly are the star ratings your overall perception of the strength of the selection, rather than anything to do with AM ratings?<br>cheers<br>Ollie
Daz,<br>Many thanks for posting. I couldn’t find forecast prices on the SL site this evening, did you find any? If not I wondered whether you had used the RP forecast just for today, if so Diamond Merchant in the 3.30 (The Bumper)would seem to qualify as well?<br>Ollie
Daz.<br>Thanks for posting, I worked them out correctly again!<br>There is an error on the SL website regarding distance winners, Le Passing and Manly Money are also* <br>Good luck tomorrow :cheesy:
Daz,<br>Hope I’m not treading on your toes but as it’s 10pm thought I’d post what i believe are the selections for Ludlow the principal meeting tomorrow:
1.30 Korelo 3rd<br>4.00 Dominican Monk# N/R
Both are distance winners. <br>Ollie<br>
(Edited by Ollie at 6:44 pm on Jan. 9, 2004)
Absolutely Snowy, Daz’s system as you say did very well, winners at 4/7 and 4/5 and a respectable 3rd at 8/1 (hope Mr E backed for a place as well). having said I would paper trade, I did a little Trixie to small money, slight loss on the day, but alot of fun! We’ll wait for the SL Online for tomorrow’s selections.<br>Well done Daz
Mr E,
Yes I was referring to daz’s system when I asked what if there are 2 at the same price, thanks for explaining it’s the first named.
I do intend to monitor and paper trade, rather than plunge in, but looking back through the thread the results are encouraging and you seem to have had a beer or two out of it!<br>All the best<br>Ollie<br>PS I think using the RP the E selection would be Limerick Leader
Daz,<br>Many thanks, most helpful.<br>interestingly the forecast prices I saw on the Sportinglife online must have been the early forecast, as they have changed the forecast now!<br>I now have identified the same selections as you!<br>many thanks for the indicator and E factor marks.
If there are 2 qualifiers on the system at the same price presumably that’s no selection rather than both?
As I said before it will be interesting to see how they fair tomorrow.<br>good luck<br>Ollie
Mr E,<br>Many thanks for clarifying which paper Daz uses, I’ve just spent the past 30 minutes going through the 24 pages of the thread! I know sad isn’t it!<br>Using SL online Wincanton is clearly the meeting with the biggest prize money. I think the selections would be<br>1.00 This is your Life *E factor<br>1.30 Kerballec<br>In the 2.30 there are joint favs at 9/2 which both seem to fit the criteria Limerick Leader and Material World<br>how is a selection arrived at in this case?<br>I stress these are not the "official" system selections, but my attempt at applying the rules, obviously need expert clarification!<br>Cheers and roll on tomorrow!
Actually having re-read Mr E’s thread it seems that he uses the RP not the Sun. Mr E old mate just to check your modification to the method, do u use the RP to make your selection shortlist using Daz’s criteria as well as using it to identify the one which has the biggest price?<br>Sorry to keep harping on, but I’m genuinely fascinated!<br>Ollie
Daz,<br>Well done! Two nice winners @7/2 and 13/8 told you I’d keep an eye on your selections! <br>Just a small point at one stage you suggested using only distance winners as a filter, but it seems that you now favour including all selections even if not D winners?<br>Also if it’s not too much trouble could you indicate the horse with the E factor (Mr E of course!) ie of those identified by the system, which are also distance winners, is the highest forecast price in the Sun. Perhaps this selection could be marked with an asterisk?<br>Keep posting and good luck!<br>Ollie
(Edited by Ollie at 8:00 pm on Jan. 7, 2004)
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