Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
05 Jan 2010
7:05 Kempton – 3yo Hcap 1m
This race caught my eye because of the very short price of
Swimsuit
, who comes from a good yard and runs in a handicap for the first time after winning her second start at Southwell four weeks ago.
She might be a good type, but the mark of 71 allocated looks harsh on bare form. Her debut second was ok, but she was well beaten by the winner, the form hasn’t worked out well, and it was a weak race in which she was allowed to go off at a surprisingly big 16/1.
The maiden she won at Southwell was very weak indeed and she ground out a win in a slow time. At around even money, I’m more than happy to take her on.
Of the others,
Sammy Alexander
looks too one-paced to be an effective polytrack horse – the surface tending to suit horses capable of a burst of speed. He may need a little further, or a drop in the ratings before getting competitive.
This leaves
Sky Diamond
who had a busy time as a 2yo, but acts here and has some decent enough form under similar conditions. His prominent racing style will be a useful asset, but the small field might lead to a slightly slower pace than ideal.
And it also leaves
WHODATHOUGHT
who I slightly prefer here. He ran about a bit on his polytrack debut here, but still posted a good speed figure, and ran to a similar level last time at Lingfield when just failing to make almost all. At around 7/2, he makes plenty of appeal.
WHODATHOUGHT – £4 win
WHODATHOUGHT and SKY DIAMOND – 2 x £1 r/f/c02 Jan 2011
2:05 Southwell – 1m4f maiden
This isn’t the strongest looking race in the world, with the very average Odin’s Raven only around 6/1, and the two shorter-priced runners both having questions to answer – neither Palawi nor Eshtyaaq is proven on the surface and both look (albeit from limited evidence) as if this trip might be as far as they want to go.
Given that,
RIVER DRAGON
looks pretty interesting, with the Bycroft yard having had a couple of horses go well recently, and with a sound effort in a jumpers bumper here 11 days ago.
Currently around 12/1 – 14/1, I think this looks a very solid each-way option, or alternatively is available at 11/1 with stakes returned if it places. I suspect it might be shorter than that price come the off.
(£6 @ 11/1, cover bet 3 places)
Fri 31st Dec 2010
1:40 Uttoxeter – 2m hcap hurdle
This is a very weak looking race, packed full of horses that have either shown virtually nothing, or who are unproven under the conditions, or who are out of form.
A big chunk of the market is taken by Sarah’s Boy and Sommersturm, neither of whom deserve to be the prices they are based on previous performance and question marks about ground and stamina and ability.
As such, a horse that looks like it might be unexposed, better than it has shown recently, and trying to win has to be of interest.
Step forward winning pointer HARDWICK WOOD, who is dropped in trip sharply and blinkered, runs for a yard that does get winners here, and who might find this test off a moderate mark a lot easier than the novice hurdles he has been contesting.
At around 20/1, I’ll be playing each-way (£3 e/w to keep stakes equal)…
2:10 beverley –
ICE TROOPER
2:55 catterick –
RIO COBOLO(NAP)
5:40 newmarket –
ABAYAAN
7:00 cartmel –
CROFTON ARCH
reserve2 = Main Aim (haydock, 3:30)
reserve3 = Green Moon (newmarket, 2:15)cheers!
Yes,
Numide
for me too… with a smaller interest on Frontier Dancer.
Numide was given no chance last time, and still looks on a potentially decent mark…
Agree that
Alfie Sherrin
looks plenty short enough based on what he has shown thus far…
Triggerman
should go well but probably lacks the finishing pace to win unless they go too hard and the race falls apart late on.
Actually, the two I think are most interesting are the well-backed (but slight stamina doubt)
Stripe Me Blue
– who tends to run well here, is on a fair mark, and from a yard that had a nice winner yesterday – and, very speculatively,
Dante Hall
who has bits of form that would make him interesting and a decent weight to carry…
VPU looks the only viable danger here. If Fix The Rib didn’t have such a weak record jumping left-handed, I think Master Minded would be worth taking on, but as it is, I think the market is about right and the race is a ‘watcher’…
Purely on the basis on a very odd run last time out, I am interested in
THREE MIRRORS
here. The horse might simply have been unfit, but was given a very quiet prep even considering that, and the conspiracy theorist in me wonders whether he was looked after with this race in mind, and only given 3/4 of a run.
Quite possibly not, but at juicy odds, and with form that at times is well up with these at these weights at least, a little each way dabble looks in order!
No, I guess the individual incidents in themselves are all too predictable, but it is the total lack of respect and collective selfishness which is pitiful.
He started out being overly familiar with several of the females in the house and would ask them to show parts of themselves or talk openly about sexual things in a manner which made him appear both pervy and desperate, and made a couple of the girls feel uncomfortable around him.
I think there is a serious lack of imagination sometimes though. For big meetings, bank holidays, weekends even, many courses know they will get decent crowds in – of course they will charge what they can. But…
What about low-grade stuff mid-week? How many people actually go along to Southwell in February on a Tuesday? How many racecourses offer 2-for-1 deals for less popular racedays? Why not?
D’oh! The money made from food and drink turnover alone would make it viable, let alone the longer-term impact of getting more people going racing on a regular or semi-regular basis…
Marcus is a strange one.
I think he does have a very dry and witty side to him, which is a big positive.
If he did something really ‘nice’ and unselfish in the next few days, I think he might be in with a chance of winning or certainly being there to the death.
However, he is prone to self-absorbed depression (his self-imposed isolation and love-in with his comfort ‘blanket’), which is not a good thing in the public’s eyes, and he has been very seedy/sleazy in the past (which has led to Sophie’s hatred of him). He would be well advised to drop these traits entirely for the run-in…
Personally, I love studying form.
I enjoy following horse-racing as a self-confessed amateur. Long-term I don’t make much of a profit, if any, and the amount of form study I put in looks ridiculous given my usual stake level, but I find it therapeutic and challenging!
I think there is value in studying up to a point, but form is not the be-all-and-end-all of the story – there is a lot of almost invisible subtext, and it is just as important to think about the lines between the (form)lines. A few well-chosen ‘why’ questions can be enlightening…
It defies belief really. A small minority of d!ckheads ruining things for everyone else…
As a wise man once observed:
"Our neighbours shake their heads
And take their valuables inside
While my countrymen piss in the fountains
To express our national pride…"
– The Few, Billy Bragg[/color:1krr7r1r]
