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Not sure this thread will last very long, but I’ve been admittedly very absent over the last couple of years, and feel I should be doing more!!!
1:50 Taunton, 30 Dec 10, 2m3f Hcp Chase
There are sufficient prominent runners here to make a fair test likely, with ground which should be on the soft side of good at least.
Corredor Sun looks like it struggles to stay, and conversely the other NTD runner, Noble Aran, may struggle to get competitive dropped so sharply in trip.
Douryna looks one-paced in extremis, has a much better record going left-handed, and may be overbet on the basis of what would only have been a reasonable (and reasonably slow) effort last time, and Maria’s Rock – although doing nothing wrong when winning after a big absence – comes with a ‘bounce’ question and a nagging doubt about the strength of that comeback form.
Fongoli seems better on good or faster ground, over a shorter trip, and has never raced right-handed. Russellstown Boy is a non-runner, and Red Law may be interesting at some point in the future but was a moderate pointer with thus far moderate hurdles form, and runs off a stiffish mark for a stable that has been out of form for a while.
This leaves four I am interested in for one reason or another:
WALK TALL – better effort last time and probably fully fit now, might just about stay, lightly raced, and stable does well at the track
CHILLA CILLA – a lowly mark which is clearly thought to be generous on the basis of market support recently, and was in the process of running well enough here over fences two runs ago
REMEMBER BAMPI – big price, partly reflective of quiet stable form, but mostly good runs from limited efforts over regulation fences, and on a very fair looking mark if fit enough
DELCOMBE – sprang a surprise over hurdles last season, following up with a fair effort. Entitled to need comeback run and lightly raced. Inexperienced jockey up for chase debut, but low weight and no problem with softish ground and right-handed track
[b:3h23i721]I’ll be looking to combine these four in:
12 x 30p R/F/C combinations
24 x 10p TRICAST combinations.[/color:3h23i721][/b:3h23i721]Obviously could be well wide of the mark, but these runners all seem to be reasonably priced…
Fri 31st Dec 2010
1:40 Uttoxeter – 2m hcap hurdle
This is a very weak looking race, packed full of horses that have either shown virtually nothing, or who are unproven under the conditions, or who are out of form.
A big chunk of the market is taken by Sarah’s Boy and Sommersturm, neither of whom deserve to be the prices they are based on previous performance and question marks about ground and stamina and ability.
As such, a horse that looks like it might be unexposed, better than it has shown recently, and trying to win has to be of interest.
Step forward winning pointer HARDWICK WOOD, who is dropped in trip sharply and blinkered, runs for a yard that does get winners here, and who might find this test off a moderate mark a lot easier than the novice hurdles he has been contesting.
At around 20/1, I’ll be playing each-way (£3 e/w to keep stakes equal)…
02 Jan 2011
2:05 Southwell – 1m4f maiden
This isn’t the strongest looking race in the world, with the very average Odin’s Raven only around 6/1, and the two shorter-priced runners both having questions to answer – neither Palawi nor Eshtyaaq is proven on the surface and both look (albeit from limited evidence) as if this trip might be as far as they want to go.
Given that,
RIVER DRAGON
looks pretty interesting, with the Bycroft yard having had a couple of horses go well recently, and with a sound effort in a jumpers bumper here 11 days ago.
Currently around 12/1 – 14/1, I think this looks a very solid each-way option, or alternatively is available at 11/1 with stakes returned if it places. I suspect it might be shorter than that price come the off.
(£6 @ 11/1, cover bet 3 places)
05 Jan 2010
7:05 Kempton – 3yo Hcap 1m
This race caught my eye because of the very short price of
Swimsuit
, who comes from a good yard and runs in a handicap for the first time after winning her second start at Southwell four weeks ago.
She might be a good type, but the mark of 71 allocated looks harsh on bare form. Her debut second was ok, but she was well beaten by the winner, the form hasn’t worked out well, and it was a weak race in which she was allowed to go off at a surprisingly big 16/1.
The maiden she won at Southwell was very weak indeed and she ground out a win in a slow time. At around even money, I’m more than happy to take her on.
Of the others,
Sammy Alexander
looks too one-paced to be an effective polytrack horse – the surface tending to suit horses capable of a burst of speed. He may need a little further, or a drop in the ratings before getting competitive.
This leaves
Sky Diamond
who had a busy time as a 2yo, but acts here and has some decent enough form under similar conditions. His prominent racing style will be a useful asset, but the small field might lead to a slightly slower pace than ideal.
And it also leaves
WHODATHOUGHT
who I slightly prefer here. He ran about a bit on his polytrack debut here, but still posted a good speed figure, and ran to a similar level last time at Lingfield when just failing to make almost all. At around 7/2, he makes plenty of appeal.
WHODATHOUGHT – £4 win
WHODATHOUGHT and SKY DIAMOND – 2 x £1 r/f/cSun 09 Jan 2011
(yes, not 2010 this time!)
2:45 Southwell – 7f Hcap
Dubai Hills
is the obvious one here, but while he has posted some excellent speed figures, he has been beating some pretty unexciting sorts, and this is a lot harder. At odds-on, he looks worth taking on if possible.
The most interesting rival for me is
EVERYMANFORHIMSELF
. He is one from one here, having showed plenty of grit to beat the very much in-form Silaah in a really good time two runs ago, and should pose the favourite a much sterner test than The Lock Master has been doing. There is a slight question about whether this trip will suit as well as a furlong shorter, but Kevin Ryan’s horse has been shaping as if it should be fine in recent starts, and the return to fibresand should be ideal.
Available at 8/1 in places, I’ll be taking the 7/1 on offer with Bet365 with stakes returned if he finishes 2nd.
Thursday 13 Jan 2011
3:20 Catterick – 2m Hcap Chase
One horse here looks to me as though it is simply the wrong price at the moment. This looks a race with plenty of chaff and a paucity of wheat, and, with the inconsistent
Heavenly Chorus
looking the most ‘reliable’ option, it might not take a lot of winning.
MONSIEUR JOURDAIN
has put in two fair efforts on his two chase starts so far, showing a reasonable proficiency over fences and should have conditions to suit. The mark of 112 allotted looks workable, and whilst he might not win (obviously), I’d have expected him to be around 13/2.
At double those odds (14/1 in plenty of places), I’ll take him each-way.
£3 each-way – MONSIEUR JOURDAIN.
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