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You can’t argue against those statistics!
I was firmly in the camp of frustration in regards to the new whip rules and gradually forgot about them over time which means something positive must have been going on and it has.
Congratulations on a successful initiative, now lets keep this good work up into other areas.
Heart warming thoughts from John who in many eyes off screen is a great man who has given the public such a widely recognized figure that tears at the bottom of the emotions carrying a profound and ever lasting connection with Horse Racing.
Unfortunately this is Channel 4, a broadcast that’s socially and ethically aware of the external environment which has pursued plunging into the abyss to collect a dynamic and vastly differentiating characteristic in target audience for decades leading to challenging, insightful and thought provoking documentaries aligned with a well structured and dynamic television listing.
It’s out of "our" hands so to speak, we all know who’s the best for the role and many of us are deeply unsatisfied with the current pick of presenters but if we are as a sport wanting to target the wider audience then as enthusiasts we must take ourselves out of the Horse Racing "shell" and integrate with the wider demands of our current culture and society which the current line up has achieved.
We still have ATR & RUK, their purpose remains justified whilst I suspect the more commercial Channel 4 product has its place.
I know what I’ll be watching and it’s not Channel 4, nothing against them it just doesn’t suit my needs and demands as a Horse Racing fan.
You wonder why such a big team of racing experts are needed when in truth about 3 or 4 could bring a sensational product.
Personally I think there are too many spare parts doing roles that feature 1-2 minutes of air time per hour which really isn’t productive nor does it entertain the notion of viewer variety.
I’d like to see a strong team of professional’s; Nick Luck, Clare Balding, Matt Chapman and the commentary team of Richard Hoiles & Simon Holt.
Nick Luck & Clare Balding with the main control of direction of the show with race analysis, paddock analysis and general activities.
Matt Chapman interviewing connections pre/post race & betting updates.
You wouldn’t need anymore than that, all the others can do their bit on the morning line really.
I agree,
The "dross" horses have their benefits because you can watch them longer in the home straight adding to your racing experience rather than trying to watch an Epsom Dash for example.
If you read page 1 I proved why it was a good thing which is the whole point of this thread and I’m not that interested in what its done prior to the race I’ve rated because it has no relation to the actual context I’m using or what I’m trying to project.
I will however use previous races in the formbook to question certain criteria but it’s not the cornerstone of my theory.
Like I said well done if you backed Blues tip or layed my horse, enjoy your winnings!.
Kempton 24.10.12
82.59
Out Do
88.61
Secret Number
72.49
Cat O’Mountain
82.93
Maggie Pink
78.83
Numeral
86.90
Daruband
Variance:
2.09 (Standard)
Unquestionably the horse to take form this meeting is
SECRET NUMBER
for Godolphin in the 2yo Maiden over a mile, missing the break he made headway into midfield before coming wide in his challenge in the home straight whilst taking a while to pick up he won by the shortest of margins.
I have him running to a 0-100 Benchmark over the mile at Kempton with an improvement of 18lbs on wherever you deem to see a legitimate figure of ability.
The line through Waldenberg on his run behind Flying Officer where he’s run to around a mark of 71 and has finished in similar vein here I assume it would be relevant to put Secret Number on a mark of 93 which is even more significant given the we have 18lbs improvement and that would give us a mark of 89 so it’s a similar balance.
93
Secret Number 2/1F
93
Pether’s Moon (IRE) 14/1
83
Portmonarch (IRE) 7/1
71
Wallenberg 5/1
69
Revise (IRE) 33/1
67
London Bridge (USA) 16/1
64
Soul Intent (IRE) 50/1
64
Celebrated Talent (USA) 5/1
58
Jaladee 20/1
58
Count Curlin (USA) 33/1
56
Great Ormond (IRE) 66/1
54
Isis Blue 10/1
30
So Lyrical 66/1
–
Frederick Alfred 100/1
/
On the subject of Neige D’Antan it proves why you can never stop learning in Horse Racing, it’s clear form the results that the slow pace affected her chances and would clearly suit a strong run affair – where’s Den’s Gift when you need him?
If it couldn’t win in 7 tries off lower marks, why should it win now off a career high mark ?
The horse did win on the 5th of September and it’s clearly improving but if you want to lay it next time out with me then state how much you’re willing to stake given you’re so adamant that she’s such a bad horse/bet.
Congratulations must go to Blues Brother for finding that winner! saviour the moment because those don’t come around too often and if you do fancy a big price then please make sure it’s not in my race
I’m reaching the point now where I could quite happily walk away from the sport and have no regrets whatsoever.
See you later then!
No one’s forcing you to enjoy the sport or take part in it but with people like you always pulling in the opposite direction we’ll get nowhere we’re better off without you.
The favourite was never vulnerable and should have been the winner but on any other day he would have been, don’t get me wrong it’s nice to have the odd 33/1 winner but 9.5 times out of 10 that favourite wins and I’d back it to beat the winner if they ever met again.
Holy Maccaroni! well done there The Blues Brother I guess we called the forcast but I’m going home with a dent in my pocket whilst you landed a massive touch! by the shortest of margins.
Speed Ratings will always be the best methodology of finding winners as The Blues Brother has proven tonight.
I agree, they’ve lost their vision and have lost the direction of their product which is a shame.
Why are you laughing?
The 2 year old market is loaded with prize money for horses that come at an affordable price which is booming each year.
Requinto is a fine bull off a horse with a strong bloodline who had an outstanding 2-year old career starting from April right through to October where he showed progression not only in his own age category but managed to compete with the older horses in the Abbeye showing his maturity beyond his years which is vital for success as a 2yo.
Interesting you’ve gone for Bridge The Gap, it’s got an awful lot of improvement to find consdering Homeric is an 80 rated horse at best, Tempest Fugit around 85 and Grandlioquent is about a 80 rated horse.
You can get away with chancing these sort of horses in first time handicaps if they’ve been beaten by 105+ rated horses in their Maidens which is probably a true reflection of their marks in the 50s early 60s whereby they have about 10lbs give but there’s nothing to suggest this horse is on a good mark.
Come over to a thread I made for us in the Trends section, I am awaiting your input Blues Brother and Slowly Away.
There’s also Sir Mark Prescott’s
NEIGE D’ANTAN
running in the first at Kempton this evening, now I’d be more confident about this horse going in.
He’s entered in a 0-55 Handicap whilst running to a mark of 67 last time out which doesn’t take a rocket scientist it’s going to take an awful lot to stop him here today!
There’s a runner today from The Obvious Choice run and that’s
SENNOCKIAN STAR
who runs in the last race at Newmarket.
I’m 50/50 about this one today especially at the price (10-30) because the horse is unproven on this sort of ground and although he was closer to the 0-80 benchmark with a rating of 79 the yard have pitched him in at a 0-85 with a very hot favourite too beat.
I do believe he’s able to step up to this level in particularly given the weight he’ll be receiving as a result and the extra 2 furlongs in distance but it’s too much of a question mark for me this morning and unless he drifts like wildfire to 8’s, 10’s etc then I’m going to let him go.
I’d rather miss a winner than back a loser.
Lingfield 23.10.2012
83.17
Lady Bellatrix
75.55
Manazel
74.15
Boudoir
81.45
Ginger Ted
76.95
Muhdiq
88.15
Bert The Alert
Variance:
-0.40 (Standard Slow)
Today’s meeting at Lingfield was pretty average but we’ll soon get used to that over the coming months although there was one eyecatching performance in the last race won by Gary Moore’s
BERT THE ALERT
.
Now the time on the day is actually very strong nearly 3 points above the speed rating upper quartile on the day of (85.23) with the average being (79.90).
What’s interesting is the time is only marginally above the upper quartile going calculation of (3.31) by (3.51) which is much smaller differentiation than expected given the clear strength and breadth of speed rating compared to other runners on the day and he’s run
11lbs
better than his current mark.
The raw time is telling me a
0-100 Benchmark
that from the naked eye seems a little far fetched so in applying the 0-100 par onto the run it’s showing that Bert The Alert is missing a minimum of -2.05 lengths and works out a speed rating of (89.71).
The -2.05 lengths equates to -0.39 seconds which we’ll taper off the original 1.18s advantage bringing us to a benchmark of
0-90
and having put a 0-90 par on the speed rating it works out perfect.
Now to reality! having watched the race I see they went HARD for the first couple of furlongs before gradually decreasing in speed whereby Bert The Alert was able to find himself on the bridle entering the final furlong as the others collapsed and credit where it’s due he turned on the gas in the closing stages where it would of been easy to get caught from a runner in behind.
I’m not convinced by this rating not because it’s not a valid account of whats happened by I don’t believe the horses in the frame are actually anything like the figures are projecting for example; the winner seems to be a very dodgy character despite showing a good level of ability, nothing in the race has really competed at the 0-90 level before apart from Hawaana who wasn’t at all productive at that level and most of the yard are out of form or are getting flat runs out of their potential hurdlers.
To be honest I would tread a little careful with this run but I for one wouldn’t disregard it from your form reading unless things start to pan out badly and if you’re going to back something from this race you’d want a decent price for it too!
I’m inclined to believe that CATERINA would be a good benchmark for the run, caught in midfield she found no room in the straight and held off the late surge from Officer in Command, but bare in mind this was a sound run race so you might want to think about backing those up with the pace in a small field later in the year at this level providing they have history for preferring that style of racing.
76/65
Bert The Alert 9/1
79/70
Harry Buckle 4/1F
75/67
Hawaana (IRE) 7/1
77/70
Caterina 8/1
74/67
Officer In Command (USA) 12/1
70/70
Apache Glory (USA) 50/1
62/64
Zenarinda 7/1
66/70
Hunt A Mistress (IRE) 25/1
61/66
Mafi (IRE) 10/1
59/65
Soweto Star (IRE) 14/1
60/68
Ellie In The Pink (IRE) 20/1
55/64
Daniel Thomas (IRE) 8/1
55/64
Hip Hip Hooray 33/1
53/66
Shirataki (IRE) 14/1
