[mr forecast]

i do struggle to understand how you get a figure of above 100% if you are dividing by 100?

my top three rated for the first at southwell were before the race

russian invader 99.91 98.05 98.05
stagecoach amber 99.25 97.08
Merrion Tiger 99.72

and the figures for todays race

Russian Invader 1m6f 188.76 2 0.33 189.09 99.82
Stagecoach Emerald 0 b 7 09/03/09 52 67 73 1m6f 188.76 2.25 0.38 189.14 99.8
Merrion Tiger 28J 4 09/01/09 50 53 72 1m6f 188.76 0 0
188.76 100

this just using the race times and are not the course record vs finishing time figures

[mr forecast]

i think actuary is spot on by not giving the speed ratng of a horse, just its percentage

several horses can have the same rating but different percentages

one question i would like to ask, should your pars be produced from record times or the racing post standard times,

some course records are over three years old so i am very wary of this,obviuoly the two throw up completely different figures

i personaly believe that actuarys site is the best aw speed related website i have found, and its still free

formbet was up there but charges now

[mr forecast]

i do a simple equation of 100 divided by 0fficial rating times top speed depending on track

this highlights some goodies

as well as 100 / ts times alltime top speed as well

[mr forecast]

with out the books you will not know how to build speed figures…if you are doing your own you wont need to use any others , or you can copy racing post but i advise you do your own….good luck

[mr forecast]

actuary had a blinding day with his figures at wolverhampton

with a total of 22 horse which if you would of bet all of them e/w would of returned just over 84 points….with a 44 point outlay

my speed figures (top rated produced 4 winners totaling 50 points with a 16 point …..8 bets e/w outlay ….so 34 points

one forecast were the 1st and 2nd rated came 1st and 2nd paid 20.93, but been a while since a forecast

[mr forecast]

this is not my thread and i dont want to tread on any ones toes………..visit his site

[mr forecast]

http://horse–racing–tips.blogspot.com/

this was taken from this site under actuarys profile

[mr forecast]

well its a shame that actuary is no longer here with his figures, more shame on you than me as i still use his web site

i have watched him for sometime and his experience and imput will be surely missed

his first race at wolverhampton produced a nice tricast and i believe he had a forecast as well (yesterday)

i use his figures against my figures and even thou we do differ slightly as we are both doing different things but i find it very easy picking a winner from both figures

why should it matter were he puts his figures

[mr forecast]

For those interested here is Nick Mordins reply to my question regarding figs for beaten horses.

Shouldn’t the lengths beaten by formula be relative to the time the race was run opposed to the distance of the race?

For some reason beyond my comprehension there appears to be an unwritten rule that dictates we conform to the lbs per length applied by the official handicapper or a closely linked permutation.

What I feel most uncomfortable about with this formula is the results appear to be upside down. e.g. the penalty applied to a horse beaten 1 length in a sprint is greater than the penalty applied to the horse beaten 1 length in a middle distance race but from a speed perspective the horse in the sprint is obviously travelling faster than the middle distance horse.

Dear Mark,

You are of course right. But actually in Britain this is exactly what happens nowadays because lengths are now measured by time rather than distance. The photo finish drum spins at a set speed, so it’s easy to tell exactly how far behind the winner a horse finished. On the flat a length is now counted as a fifth of a second (as measured off on the photo finish drum). Over jumps 0.25 of a second is used. What this means is that in a mile race run in 1m 40 a length is longer than it is in a mile race run in 1m 35.

Beaten lengths are a vexing issue though. I am still wrestling with how to cope with the massive increase in beaten lengths caused by a very slow surface compared to a very fast one. For example times on Germany’s sand track at Neuss are only about 10% slower than they are on Lingfield’s Polytrack. But the average beaten lengths are three times as much.
The trouble is if you adjust your speed ratings to take account of this you can end up giving a bigger speed rating to a horse that gets beat ten lengths in a mile race run in 1.40 (and therefore runs around 1m 42) than you do to a horse that won another mile race on the same card in 1m 41.

I plan on doing some research on this. I once took part in a discussion with a couple of Aussie handicappers and they called this phenomena ‘drag’ but I can’t find any reference to this on the internet. However it’s clearly real. For example, the only way I could make sense of the beaten lengths on Irish 1000 Guineas day at the Curragh was to count them as double what they should have been. The going was really slow that day and seemed to massively amplify the beaten lengths. Perhaps it also amplifies the difference in times between races. I need to look at this to try and understand it. It’s not easy. It’s probably related to pace more than final time. Sectional times show that jockeys go off pretty much the same speed in the early stages whatever the going. So if it’s really slow and testing the horses tire more and the beaten lengths get amplified. That’s my best current theory.

Regards

Nick

Although Nick’s reply is less than conclusive after posting a length explanation of my theory to racing forums I am yet to find anyone who can argue their case for why they apply their variations on the example I posted. In fact I received several more variation along the same lines with a length in a 5f sprint given a numerical value of 2.5 at the lowest to a high of 4.2.

Paul Mostert Ph.D. of Equix Biomechanics found in extensive research that the approximate length of a mature thoroughbred is 9ft

1) There are 660ft in a furlong or 73.33 lengths (660 divided by 9)
In a 5 furlong race run in 60 seconds 1 length therefore equals 0.1636
60 seconds divided by 366.67 (number of lengths in 5f) = 0.1636

2) There are 660ft in a furlong or 73.33 lengths (660 divided by 9)
In a 1 mile race run in 1minute 40 seconds 1 length therefore equals 0.1705
100 seconds divided by 586.67 (number of lengths in 1 mile) = 0.1705

The above two examples are as close to fact as you can get! There is no personal interpretation or corruption. Purely based on time, IMO isn’t this what speed figures should be based upon?

Referring back to Nick’s reply it is interesting to note that even with his years of experience he is looking to adjust and improve his ratings and I am mindful of the fact that as I strive for perfection with my speed figures it is a labour of love which is never likely to reach a definitive conclusion.

i have only just spotted this and feel this is mainly what this thread is about and feel i should bring his subject back up for discussion

i have messed around with the figures adding and subtracting certian pars from the books mentioned……

i also had a stab at fractional timings with speed figures,and nick is correct in his staement about most horses having the same fractional times in the early stages……fractional timings are a great way of backing up a horses speed figure but i must warn you that fractional timings has alot to do with the jockey as well and this needs to be considered in all figures…..

some good jockeys are excellent at fractional timing a horse by holding it back and pushing it forward at different stages of a race, the poor horse has no idea how far it is going to race and will sometimes just go for it and a amatuer jockey will push it….were a expeirenced jockey will hold it back trying to achieve the same fractional times through out the race…..its this jockey which will get the best performance from a horse and will have a better chance of winning……

you will find that its alot for just one person to achieve …..and you would not be able to fractional time every horse in every race

it can take several hours sometimes to do just one race

i have experimented with the following

speed figures vs each individual track both backing and laying

adjusting figures the beyer method(using his figures)

using fractional timings

adjusting officail ratings against race pars

using mathmatical formulars to average a speed rating

and my conclusion is that its not an exact science, you get close but i feel it will never be 100% accurate but does have the best strike rates from all the wacky ideas ive tried

i would like to see some geek link some sort of database of speed figures with a virtual horse racing type software so you could enter several horses to race each other and you may get a slight edge on how the race should be run…….see another wacky idea

[mr forecast]

i wondered why it had gone quite………..whats wrong with his speed figures, if any one bothered to follow him they might of realised he had a very good strike rate by producing his own figures as i do,…

i beleive he was following the books of mordin and beyer ,

and then firing different questions about these theorys on this thread…

from adding points for weight….ect

its alot to explain ….well about two books worth….lol

should we change the figures for ,wieght,going ect or do we keep them the same was the main arguement

you need to have your pars for the class race……then check the par against the or…….then choice the horse with the fastest true speed figure……..it takes afew minutes before the race and there are many different versions of this so i suggest you read these two books mentioned , they are based on american racing but with slight adaption to the uk market and you have yr self a powerfull tool

[mr forecast]

are you speed handicapping………..private handicapping……or just using the plain old speed figure

i have a database with every variation of speed you can think of and i am noticing a slight change but nothing major…..

i use top speed as well as speed ran to as well as distance speed figures

i dont bet much this time of year myself as i know what its like, i move over to the forex and trade on there……..not helping that racing traders is down ……i was using thier new evolution trading software but now both are not working…..nightmare

[mr forecast]

sorry i didnt mean with yr database.
i ment generaly you find that the ones that are being underhandicapped seem to be the non runners

i have viewed your database on a few occasions , and as i said

very impressive

there are so many angels out there but i find that speed and handicapping seems the way forward

keep up the good work

takecare

[mr forecast]

do you find you have alot of non runners,
i spend ages sorting everything out to find the next day they are all non runners

very impressive thou

[mr forecast]

hello stranger were you been kevin,hope your still on racing trends

i had to use proform racing as to say its all beyond me is an understatement

10 years data for 40 quid then the data base costs but me mates put it all in something sql….csf files or something like that

plus my office spread sheets which i built with the figures
nicked bits from here and there,you know how it is

[mr forecast]

didnt get one yesterday but the bolodenka did return 6/1 place on betfair

todays is

2:50 Epsm – Whistle Blower 1pt WIN …1pt PLACE

[mr forecast]

my data base does have the going (ground) and i do use this,so far i am in profit

when i done the forecast the top two in every race it produced 500 points in its first month and is still showing a good profit to date

i now have my own speed figures which do not reflect the speed figures that are shown on racing post so i admit i have a massive advantage than most

i sit here and will trade out if not happy or just trade on the horse which gives me a free bet..theres so much more to this but all i hope is that i am pointing people in the right direction…………….

i dont bet on every race just show the results for every race……i know what tracks to bet on and which ones to avoid(or lay)……which again is showing excellent profits

i do admit that if you bet on every race of every track then you would see massive losses a certian tracks and massive profits on others which when evened out doesnt mount to much

my database is soley ment for speed and fractional times,but it does show jockey and trainer stats as well as the going,the left and right,the weight and all dates

again all i hope is that i am pointing people in the right direction so they can see that by using speed figures is a very powerfull tool if understood and used correctly, add fractional times to a speed figure and you will not believe the strike rates produced

we are a long way behind with these figures but they are catching up and i have seen my speed horses keep dropping in price to well below evens

we are now in autumn were pace and speed figures is the key you will find that most front runners will win over the next few months on races below 1 mil 3 f………….watch the races and the horse which leads after 2f will produce the best strike rates…………it changes throught out the year depending on flat ,jump ect

i urge all of you to make your own databases and produce your own angle of expertise

ps..the going speed figure does not explain what track it was achieved….the course figure does not tell you the going……the top speed figure could be 2yrs old….this is why more investigating will be needed

[mr forecast]

i am running a business now so times no longer on my side, i will try to keep up but proving impossible as my laser engraving and cutting business has taken off quite quickly and is in much demand

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