[Mathematician Betting]

Thanks Rob

I will now head off and rejig my spreadsheet to
calculate the right answers.

It is useful to have a modern times example race to work from.
The 1977 ones in the pdf are not available in the RPost etc.

re “There is a case for using Aberama Gold’s closest recent placing to rate him though I stick to the letter of the method”

Right now the letter of the method is what I am after as well.
I can try and do it myself. Your own posts here are a benefit and
can act as a sort of marking off my homework.

From said base however I can customise and tweak.
Take two measure horses and then form an average or weighted average rating?
Well I guess in theory that is one route of exploration.
A nice one for those who like to do double the work each day :)

Good luck over the weekend

Mick

[Mathematician Betting]

Also I am now trying to learn the base method.
Test 1 to prove my misunderstanding is to ensure that when
I rate a horse my numbers end up not matching those you publish here.

Test 1 has been passed with flying colors. :)

I picked out Aberama Gold as my first test.

Most probably I just have a malformed equation.
However I wanted to double check a core fork in the road
with regards to the issue of selecting the measure horse.

For Aberama Gold would the measure horse be

A – Vince L’Amour because that was the winner of the last handicap race contested by Aberama Gold
or
B – Blue Storm because it was the winner of the most recent handicap race in which Aberama Gold finished in the top 4?

I was thinking A and that top 4 consideration is a more global filtering issue that dictates which horses you bother to rate in the first place?

But when I picked B and included a 1 lb weight for age allowance I ended up with the same 108 answer as you did. That however could be the random chance of two wrongs combining to make a right.

Feedback appreciated

Cheers
Mick

[Mathematician Betting]

Thanks Rob.
Message is away to you.

re your comment “Handicapper has had a season to get hold of these.”

Do you maintain any easy to interrogate longer term stats?
If so do you spot any repeated time of year / seasonality trends
in rating performance?

Cheers
Mick

[Mathematician Betting]

Some extra data for those with an interest in a race trends perspective.
Just early days phase #1 stuff that looks at pure race trends alone.
More work to be done [ by my mate Guy ] by race day.

————————-
Munster National

34 horses in the race

No market at the moment

Who want’s it most ?

Trainers runners

9 Gordon Elliott
4 Gavin Cromwell
4 E McNamara
2 W P Mullins

Willie Mullins only has 2 entered
Expecting only 1 of those to run
But clearly has not prioritised this

Things will be clearer
When we know who runs

Race statistics below

Sunday 2nd October

Limerick 4.15

Munster National

Handicap Chase

Age of Recent winners

7 9 7 7 7 7 8 6 7 6 7
7 8 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 10
10 8 9 8 8 7 6 7 7

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 1-82 record since 2007

The only 9yo winner (2022)
Was unusually lightly raced

28 of the last 30 winners
Were under 10 years old

The 10yo winners were lucky
One won in a really tiny field
One when half of his rivals
Were disqualified in the race

Past winners
Had the following chase runs

19 8 5 6 9 10 6 7 4
7 13 4 3 12 5 5 5

Snapshot of past winners

2023 – 7 Year old with 19 Chases
2022 – 9 Year old with 5 Chases
2021 – 7 Year old with 5 Chases
2020 – 7 Year old with 6 Chases
2019 – 7 Year old with 9 Chases
2018 – 7 Year old with 10 Chases
2017 – 8 Year old with 6 Chases
2016 – 6 Year old with 7 Chases
2015 – 7 Year old with 4 Chases
2014 – 6 Year old with 7 Chases
2013 – 7 Year old with 13 Chases
2012 – 7 Year old with 4 Chases
2011 – 8 Year old with 3 Chases
2010 – 8 Year old with 12 Chases
2009 – 8 Year old with 5 Chases
2008 – 6 Year old with 5 Chases
2007 – 7 Year old with 5 Chases

Only 1 past winner
Had under 4 Chase runs

That was 8yo Muirhead in 2011
Who had Grade 1 form to his name
He had 3 prep runs before winning

Horses with 14 + Chase runs
Won this race in 2006 and 2023
They won in small fields of 11-12
They both had 2 + runs that year
Both came from the Kerry National

Horses from Kerry’s National
Won this twice 2014-2023
They have a 2-51 record

Horses aged 8 or more
From the Kerry National
Have a 0-29 record so far

Horses from Kerry’s National
Who finished the race last time
Have a 1-36 record
That winner had 4 prep runs
Those with 1-2 prep runs
Have a 0-22 record in this

Past winners
Had the following days absences

32 252 316 10 35 72 224 22 74 25
64 37 17 25 132 172 170 18

Horses absent over 4 months
Won this race 6 times recently
They had 8 5 6 5 5 6 Chase runs

None with more than 8 chases
Won this with a long absence
Those that tried it were 0-26

Horses with 1 run this season
Running within the last 34 days
Have a worrying 0-28 record

Most winners had 4-15 hurdle runs
All had fewer than 16 hurdle races

No horse has won this race
With more than 35 lifetime runs

Almost every past winner
Had 13-34 Lifetime starts

The 6-year old winners of this
Both had 7 previous chase runs

Horses rated 145 or more
Have a 0-16 record so far

No horse aged 8 or more
Won with 11st 5lbs or more (0-12)

——————-
Best Wishes
Mick

[Mathematician Betting]

Thanks for the interesting thread Rob.
I am new here today but have read
through about 19 of 77 pages so far.
A good lesson in hard work and dog
with a bone like Perseverance.

You have inspired me to go hunt out a few old
Tom Ainslie Books.
Dog earned old copies of The Compleat Horseplayer &
Ainslie’s Complete Guide To Thoroughbred Racing
are now winging their way to me from Amazon.

Always nice when the postman delivers something
that is not a bill.

Best wishes
Mick

[Author]

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