[Mathematician Betting]

Some extra data for those with an interest in a race trends perspective.
Just early days phase #1 stuff that looks at pure race trends alone.
More work to be done [ by my mate Guy ] by race day.

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Munster National

34 horses in the race

No market at the moment

Who want’s it most ?

Trainers runners

9 Gordon Elliott
4 Gavin Cromwell
4 E McNamara
2 W P Mullins

Willie Mullins only has 2 entered
Expecting only 1 of those to run
But clearly has not prioritised this

Things will be clearer
When we know who runs

Race statistics below

Sunday 2nd October

Limerick 4.15

Munster National

Handicap Chase

Age of Recent winners

7 9 7 7 7 7 8 6 7 6 7
7 8 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 10
10 8 9 8 8 7 6 7 7

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 1-82 record since 2007

The only 9yo winner (2022)
Was unusually lightly raced

28 of the last 30 winners
Were under 10 years old

The 10yo winners were lucky
One won in a really tiny field
One when half of his rivals
Were disqualified in the race

Past winners
Had the following chase runs

19 8 5 6 9 10 6 7 4
7 13 4 3 12 5 5 5

Snapshot of past winners

2023 – 7 Year old with 19 Chases
2022 – 9 Year old with 5 Chases
2021 – 7 Year old with 5 Chases
2020 – 7 Year old with 6 Chases
2019 – 7 Year old with 9 Chases
2018 – 7 Year old with 10 Chases
2017 – 8 Year old with 6 Chases
2016 – 6 Year old with 7 Chases
2015 – 7 Year old with 4 Chases
2014 – 6 Year old with 7 Chases
2013 – 7 Year old with 13 Chases
2012 – 7 Year old with 4 Chases
2011 – 8 Year old with 3 Chases
2010 – 8 Year old with 12 Chases
2009 – 8 Year old with 5 Chases
2008 – 6 Year old with 5 Chases
2007 – 7 Year old with 5 Chases

Only 1 past winner
Had under 4 Chase runs

That was 8yo Muirhead in 2011
Who had Grade 1 form to his name
He had 3 prep runs before winning

Horses with 14 + Chase runs
Won this race in 2006 and 2023
They won in small fields of 11-12
They both had 2 + runs that year
Both came from the Kerry National

Horses from Kerry’s National
Won this twice 2014-2023
They have a 2-51 record

Horses aged 8 or more
From the Kerry National
Have a 0-29 record so far

Horses from Kerry’s National
Who finished the race last time
Have a 1-36 record
That winner had 4 prep runs
Those with 1-2 prep runs
Have a 0-22 record in this

Past winners
Had the following days absences

32 252 316 10 35 72 224 22 74 25
64 37 17 25 132 172 170 18

Horses absent over 4 months
Won this race 6 times recently
They had 8 5 6 5 5 6 Chase runs

None with more than 8 chases
Won this with a long absence
Those that tried it were 0-26

Horses with 1 run this season
Running within the last 34 days
Have a worrying 0-28 record

Most winners had 4-15 hurdle runs
All had fewer than 16 hurdle races

No horse has won this race
With more than 35 lifetime runs

Almost every past winner
Had 13-34 Lifetime starts

The 6-year old winners of this
Both had 7 previous chase runs

Horses rated 145 or more
Have a 0-16 record so far

No horse aged 8 or more
Won with 11st 5lbs or more (0-12)

——————-
Best Wishes
Mick

[Mathematician Betting]

Thanks for the interesting thread Rob.
I am new here today but have read
through about 19 of 77 pages so far.
A good lesson in hard work and dog
with a bone like Perseverance.

You have inspired me to go hunt out a few old
Tom Ainslie Books.
Dog earned old copies of The Compleat Horseplayer &
Ainslie’s Complete Guide To Thoroughbred Racing
are now winging their way to me from Amazon.

Always nice when the postman delivers something
that is not a bill.

Best wishes
Mick

[Author]

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