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I have a method of eliminating half the field in no time whatsoever if I am making one selection per race.
I compare Horse 1 with Horse 2 and make one the “winner” of this two horse race. I follow this with Horse 3 versus Horse 4 and so on. If there is an odd number of runners the last 3 are compared to one another.In a 12 horse field I have 6 “winners” and the other six are eliminated. Let’s call the “winners” Numbers 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12. I then compare Number 1 versus No 4, Number 5 versus Number 8 and 9 versus 12. Again I eliminate more runners so I now have 3 contenders for the A selection. Guess what I do next?
At times I am splitting hairs in some eliminations but this works well for just an A selection. By this stage I have considered issues like distance, track conditions, racemaps, jockeys et al through the process.
Thanks for the reply Mr Cognac!
Yes, following them blindly even at 4/1 and less will lead to a certain loss but as I have found some due diligence around form can turn a small loss into a profit. If you have 5 trainers showing a profit of 1.5% over 100 runs individually at say $20 per bet that’s only $30 profit on an individual trainer however adding the five together moneywise it is +$150. The maths purist says it is still only 1.5% but your wallet says +7.5 units!I don’t know your current figures but copies I have of your “Racing Post” from years ago had a column listing trainers who travelled long distances. Is that still a column anywhere?
The method of gingertipster is the way to go. If I can find them I will report back but a few years ago I rated over 3000 horses and determined an edge %. For instance if I rated a horse 3/1 (25%) I needed 4/1 (20%) before I logged the selection as a bet and in reverse if I rated a horse $20 (5%) I logged them as a lay at $10 (10%). Both methods did ok without being startling however I did not want to do the form on every single runner and then price them all and then be hunched over a screen all day nor did I want to spend time learning Betangel and any other similar setup. It just did not fit into my personal family/wife life. There was also the really annoying times when a track was rated good on a Thursday yet on raceday conditions changed.
These days I find it easier, though “easier” is the wrong word, to just pick best bets, follow a trainer or two at the right odds and back the odd roughie that I feel the market has wrong.For my “fun” bets I use Target Betting where I seek a profit in a series of bets once I strike a winner at the required odds or two consecutive winners at shorter odds.As I live in AUstralia I will use $ as my guide to this.
I suggest the bettor seeks to win $0.10c per race based on a bank of $200 thus seeking to win a ratio of 1:2000 as 2000 times $0.10 is $200. This seems to nearly bettors as chicken feed but the profits can mount. Even just a miserable $20 profit over time X is +10% of the original betting bank. A bettor with a betting bank of $2000 can simply work out the bets by using $0.10 as the target and multiply by 10.My selections are horses at about 7/4 for the win or place. For those at 1/1 or less I use the divisor 6/4 and at 10/9 plus I use 2. These days I just select in Melbourne, Victoria (Flem Sand Caul Moon) in most Saturday races and interstate only in selected races usually in small field handicaps or wfa or set weights type of races.
A good form selector who realises what class, racemaps, distance and track conditions at each level of contest means should not be courting too many long runs of outs especially if solid place bets are sought against suspect favourites.
As I have become older I realize with bigger bets betting to win $X is the way to go. I don’t lose too much sleep worrying about odds unless the odds are really, really short (aound $1.7 is ok most times (what’s that 5/7).
Not sure if anyone is interested in this so will see what replies I get before adding more comments.Good betting to you all.
As an Aussie punter I am sure Coolangatta is a better horse than Cannonball who has form around Mariamia, Uncommon James and Athelric. That trio are really solid horses but Coolangatta is better than them all.
