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Steep – I think the main thing that we both do 100% agree on is that hurdling should be off the table for good now.
The Punchestown run to me was something thay should never have done, he looked like a horse that wanted to be anywhere but on a racecourse following two heavy likely brain scrambling falls – he ballooned the first two rather alarmingly but to be fair he was generally okish with his jumping after that.
Whilst he seemed to be travelling well enough during the race it was noted by the commentator that he was being ‘nudged along’ going to 2 out and (on the RP video replay of the race there was an overhead view of them jumping 2 out) it showed that he seemed to reach for the hurdle a bit with his head going slightly off to the right while he was in the air but within a few strides of landing after the flight, he cut out pretty quickly and I think it was the horse finally saying…..’sod this, I’m done’.
Could his physical issues have slightly affected his athletic ability to where his confidence in making those instinctive big jumps off a long stride has now been shaken enough to lead to him now second guessing himself at them…..which has clearly been made worse by him falling 3 times when faced with that exact scenario?
Steep – he sat still on him at Aintree and the horse launched himself, at Newcastle he sat still at the first and he popped it fine but at the 2nd he asked him and the horse change his mind mid jump and he did the same at Cheltenham, the only time I have heard Nico cop to being to blame for the horse making a mistake was at the last in the International when he did get away with the mistake but gave many heart failure whilst doing so.
I guess my point on Nico is that by and large if the stride is there to go long he asks him and if its not, he doesn’t (he seemed to trust that the horse would sort it out himself and he did up until last March) which you would hope is exactly what any other top jockey would do if they got the leg up but if Nico (who knows the horse better than any other jockey) is sitting still and the horse launches independently why would people expect that the horse would do something different to that with a new jockey on board that he doesn’t know?
I guess the only way Nico could do something different is if he hauls him back off a long stride and makes him go short everytime but in doing that you are losing vital momentum and giving ground away to your rivals and you negate what was until recently one of his main weapons (slick hurdling).
I don’t think the jockey is in any way the issue, this is a lack of confidence and self doubt in the horse’s head when he is asked up off a long stride.
He had that fall in the Champion Hurdle and for me (hindsight being a great thing) his confidence went with it – if you watch the hurdle before he fell that day, he met it on a similarly long stride and sailed over it no problem but at the next he half put down and stepped on the hurdle and that has been the case with the other two subsequent falls as well.
Nico I don’t think did anything wrong in any of the falls as he had presented the horse correctly at the flights and asked CH to jump off a long stride at Cheltenham & Newcastle but at AIntree he sat still (because the stride wasn’t there) and held onto him but the horse let fly anyway and then changed his mind mid leap and once again stepped on the hurdle.
Compare those three jumps to the one he put in at the final hurdle in his Champion Hurdle winning year and the difference is that he was fully committed to jumping the flight with both his fore legs and hooves extended fully out in front of him….and it was a good thing he did because he barely cleared the top bar of that flight and had he not he would have fell and that was jumping the old birch style hurdle too………so it has always been a fine margin he is playing with.
Short of going right back to basic and teaching him to jump from scratch all over again (which is a time consuming thing if done properly), I don’t know just how you go about instilling that confidence back into the horse especially when you consider that he is hurdling great on the Seven Barrows gallops (albeit he is being schooled over the old birch hurdles).
Continuing to follow that same routine and then sending him jump racing is really risking the horse because he doesn’t seem to be learning from his falls and at some point the law of averages/luck are going to turn on him in as far as his next fall, could very well end up being his last and potentially (as much as I hate to say it) a fatal one.
Those that think he can still be the horse he was 2 to 3 years ago need to take off the rose tinted glasses as even the form of his 2024 Christmas Hurdle win is a long way short of his best….even ignoring the fact that we didn’t see Lossiemouth at her best in that race that day, Burdett Road would have finished a whole lot closer than the 9L he was beaten by had he not tried to take part of the last flight home with him and lost his hind legs doing it and lets also not forget that Nico had to resort to using the whip a few times on the run in to win by just 2½L.
If they can sort out his jumping issue (if being an extremely big one) then of course he would be right in the mix for a Champion Hurdle albeit maybe not the clear and outright favourite….but nothing I have seen (so far) this season convinces me that they have the time to sort it out especially given the limited races Hendo would consider for the horse prior to Cheltenham (Kempton likely already off the table) and will they really want to risk him given that his good jumping at home doesn’t now seem to travel with him to the racecourse.
I don’t think it would matter what jockey rode him, the issue is in the horse’s head and I don’t think he has time on his side to be brought back to a place where his confidence is going to allow him to just fully commit to seeing a long stride without stepping at it.
Schooling at home clearly isn’t an issue but as soon as he is on a racecourse under race conditions and meets the hurdle on a long stride he reverts back to stepping on it.
Ruby on ITV’s analysis segment showed a close up of Nico’s hands going into that hurdle and you could clearly see him ask the horse to come up (and it wasn’t off a particularly over long stride either), so he wasn’t sending the wrong signal at all to the horse but you can clearly see the horse start to come up and then change his mind and step on the hurdle.
The only thing they could do differently I suppose would possible be to treat him like they would with a new novice they are training to jump hurdles for the first time and try to get him to re-learn how to jump again…….but as I said that would take a lot of time and also you would really be none the wiser to if it has worked until you risk running him in another hurdle race.
They are almost at the bottom of the barrel with him now and it is desperately sad especially when you consider where he is now compared to the heights he reached in his pomp.
I don’t disagree up to a point but he has finished 4th in the last two trainers championships earning around £2.2m in prize money both years with 76 and 91 winners (which is a 19% and 21% strike rate respectively) so that hardly spells a trainer who’s time is ‘nearly up’. His strike rate over the last 14 days is 33% (10 winns from 30 runners).
Yes Skelton has superceeded both him and Nicholls in the last couple of years but that doesn’t mean that they are not both fully capable of turning that around as there are always peaks and troughs with regards to the top class horses that each trainer gets to go to war with.
Is he more on the back foot at the moment……..well yes but equally with horses like Sir Gino (assuming he is none the worse for his issues), Lulamba, Impose Toi, Jango Baie and Jonbon etc that could quickly be turned on its head.
CAS – I hope he doesn’t go that route either (but where would you potentially start him out on the flat and at what trip
) but I also can’t see him waiting until the turf flat season starts in March before running him on the level either.HDLG – I wouldn’t go quite that far as Hendo still has owners that seem to continually supply class horses to him (Mrs Donnelly, JP and Buckley etc) but if say JP decided to exit stage left then I think he would have a much larger problem along with a reduced number of horses to work with at Seven Barrows.
Overall I do think that more UK trainers are competing with Hendo & Nicholls for the better raw material of horse and as such there is a bigger spread of wealth of horses between the trainers now than in years gone by, especially with the newer owners coming into the sport who are probably now looking at the younger brigade (rather than the old guard) to train their horses for them.
Hendo’s comments in the RP are interesting:
“He has not had a fall [at home] over a fence, a hurdle or anything else. But we have tried him over little fences. That is not the right route, I can assure everybody. That will not solve the problem.
That may lend more credence to the unseating rumour because they clearly seem to have seen something that would result in such a definitive statement and an unseat is not a fall so technically Hendo wasn’t lying but was it only by omission?
Sounds like they will continue on given the further comment of:
“There’s no point giving up. You’ve got an eight-year-old who is in his prime and there are other things we can do. I’m certainly not going to promise you he’ll never jump a hurdle again because that’s not the case, he will. And we’ll be working on it, as we have been for the last six months.”
Thing is that they say they were obviously happy with his schooling since the end of last season and prior to Saturday but it appears to have made zero difference when they take him to the racecourse, so him continuing to school at home in a very controlled enviroment that isn’t replicating actual race conditions (which you clearly would never do) seems a rather futile exercise at this point.
I would say that a flat campaign (or at least one run to test the waters to where they stand level wise) is the most likely avenue left for them to explore – he clearly won’t run at Kempton or go to Ireland so that really kind of only leaves the International Hurdle as a prep option for the Champion Hurdle, which would be the only point of staying with a hurdling campaign.
That being said, with regards to racing on the flat, according to the Jockey Club:
“A horse that has won Jump races is still eligible to run in maiden races on the Flat, as long as they have not won on the Flat.
So he clearly qualifies by that metric so could we maybe see him instead running in a 12F maiden at Kempton or Newcastle in the very near future?
You really need both of those attributes and you really need them in quite decent measures as too much of one and not enough of the other is equally as limiting in how successful you can be.
Good fortune has smiled on Golden Ace for those two wins because at Punchestown when normal service resumed with State Man she was comfortably put in her place (even in receipt of the mares allowance). Her best just isn’t good enough unless the wheels do happen to come off any of her rivals in which case you can depend on her to always be there or thereabouts to pick up any pieces.
She will have to hope that a similar thing happens (and likely to a number of her rivals) in order for her to become a dual Champion Hurdler and that is not a knock on her ability (as she is obviously a very talented hurdler) it is just a statement of fact.
It makes sense that he would be the one as he was able to switch the other way last season and he has proven he can win at the trip although his Fighting Fith win wasn’t exactly against a stellar cast of opponents.
Trained for Cheltenham and then going onto Aintree and/or Punchestown as an after thought can often see horses perform well below their best, so I can understand them drawing a line under the season once the main objective was won at the Festival.
Quite clearly he ain’t a freak like Faugheen was, who’s prep race prior to winning the 2m5f Neptune at the Festival was a 3m Limerick G3 run on heavy ground (race was slow by a whooping 40.60s!), so he went from 3m on heavy ground to 2m5f on good ground to 2m on good to yielding ground. Very few could do that especially in their novice season.
They didn’t swerve anyone yesterday and while clearly their plans went quite a bit south on them with the result of the race, I do think he has a good chance in March provided they play to his strengths. This season will potentially be the proving ground for him as to whether he has what it takes to drop back to the minimum trip at Championship level.
Lossiemouth at this time is the rightful favourite and whilst I think TNL (generally 4s) is a little on the short side, the interesting price is the general 8s (7s in places) for Sir Gino – especially given that the stable/owner companion Lulamba is 33s, which would indicate that Sir Gino is potentially switching back to hurdles
Seems Gerraghty is of the similar opinion given his comments in the RP:
“He was taking a chance earlier in his career but, as soon as he got the fall, I think that has created indecision in his own mind. He didn’t pick up desperately long at that hurdle, but halfway through he thought, ‘oh, I’m not sure about this’, and he tried to drop a leg on the hurdle. It’s that indecision, and it’s very hard to take that away.
“You can school at home, jump perfectly in a relaxed environment, but you go to the racecourse and have that energy, that tension, and boom, he takes a chance. It’s a really difficult thing to un-train out of a horse, if you like.”
“It’s going to be really difficult to get that back, to get into his head and get him to believe and relax.”
Townend managed to find every bit of trouble in running on Ballyburn by getting hemmed in countless times and he really should have won that race pretty comfortably.
Think he will be staying over hurdles for sure now.
The circumstances of the two most important races she has won dictate that she won’t fully get the recognition for winning them – she wouldn’t have won the Champion Hurdle had State Man not fallen at the last and it is at least open to doubt whether she would have outstayed The New Lion had he not fallen 2 out.
Until she proves she can beat these opponents without them falling (I don’t think she can personally) then sadly there will always be a caveat on those two wins when they are discussed – as admirably tough (considering she scoped dirty just 28 days ago) and consistent as she is, I think we all know that extreme good fortune has shined on her twice and it will be required for a third time for her to double up come March.
If I were The New Lion’s connections I would seriously consider getting a pacemaker to ensure that his races are at least run at a sensible gallop and not a silly buggers tactical 4F burn up, which will not suit him – he looked rather lost when left in front yesterday and almost tried running out at one hurdle and that is something you simply can’t afford to be doing in a Champion Hurdle. A return to hold up tactics they have always used up until yesterday is a must.
CH schooling on his own at home at probably less than half speed bares no resembalance to race conditions when the heat of competition is on and his blood is up – horses are also herd animals so seeing him ambling around loose jumping other hurdles for fun following the others is not in anyway unusual for a horse to do, it is rather instinctual for them to try and stay with the herd if they can.
I don’t think anyone has said he hates hurdling it is just that he doesn’t seem to be as decisive as he once was when being asked off a long stride and that is where every one of this falls has happened – whether that is due to an undiscovered physical thing or (more likely) a mental thing only the horse could really tell us……..and sadly he can’t.
But what we do know for sure now is that when he is on a long stride at a hurdle, he is now much more likely to hit the deck then sail over it as he did countless times in his pomp. That really should be the last time he is ever asked to jump hurdles again as I truly fear that if they perservere with him with this then his (relatively speaking) luck is going to run out at some point.
His owner Michael Buckley sadly is well versed in lows of losing his horses on course like The Proclamation and Mutare which in large part resulted in him hoping his luck would change by changing his colours from the black and white quarters and checked cap to the White/Black Cap we see his horses carry today.
If there was an issue with the hurdles then you would expect to see more than just CH falling constantly – given its the same mistake he continues to make (stepping on the hurdle halfway up it) he would have still hit the deck each and every time even if he had been facing the old style hurdles.
The horse now seems to have some sort of mental block in his head over jumping and I don’t think it is fixable as you would be stupid to replicate race conditions at home on the gallops and I certainly don’t see why you would want to risk sending him over fences at his age – if they are adament in continuing to race him then the safest (relatively speaking) option would be to explore the flat……although personally I think they should retire him.
The New Lion certainly shouldn’t be judged and written off on this run, the trip wasn’t the issue for me as his fall was simply that while one hoof cleared the top of the hurdle the other one didn’t and that hoof ended up stepping on the hurdle but as Ruby pointed out there were a couple of occasions in his Festival win where his fronts hooves barely were high enough to clearly the top bar of the hurdle…..it was just unfortunate that it happened this time.
If they aren’t going to go to Kempton (I am sure that JP could rustle up a horse of his to ensure a strong gallop for him there and Skelton did say at Newbury that he doesn’t think the trip is a problem), then I do wonder what other 2m option they have short of going over to Ireland at Christmas (and I can’t see that happening) other than waiting for the International at the end of January and that would likely mean his last run before the Festival, which to me isn’t an ideal preparation for a horse in his first season out of novice company.
Unless they do employ a pacemaker for him going forward then with his hold up run style he is also somewhat going to be held hostage to fortune to a slowly run tactical race, which a lot of the top 2m hurdle races end up being without a confirmed front runner.
Whilst today’s race did seem to definitively answer a question over CH, it unfortunately raised more questions over the other two horses, so it is almost a case of one step forward and two steps back.
Mrs Donnelly who owns them both along with Anzadan and State Man may have a say in plans being changed
