Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Quote: from Slippy Blue on 11:32 pm on Feb. 23, 2002[br]Gents,<br>I`ve recently bought another greyhound, when it`s running at a meeting covered by BF , and it is likely to go off at a short price I`ll tell the trainer to stop it and lay it till the cows come home.<br>I think it`s called the laws of the jungle.<br>Survival of the fittest …..and all that.<br>
hehehe Let us know! Thing is, whats to stop someone saying, such and such won’t win and then they back the horse/dog/golfer etc at a ridiculously high price. Its all a bit dicey!
If its on good information, or even better you are the owner etc then its all good. Of course in the interests of fair play and decency I don’t condone any of this! :biggrin:
Slippy I’m up for a lay! :biggrin:
Well, in that instance it was better to bet because the odds changed in your favour. (i didnt see the betting heat so I’m guessing the odds shortened on the first one you backed and pushed the second horse’s odds out slightly) You can do it either way if you leave an ask for some odds above the over round :) Any other betfairers out there tonight !? :biggrin:
They do use it…  it really is impossible to back all the horses in a race and still win.  (Unless you have asked for a price on every single horse in the race and got them all matched)  If this was the case everyone would be backing every horse in every race and no one would bother even making up a book on there. ÂÂÂ
The bookies may have an over round of 108-111 %, on betfair you will usually get a book of 101-103% , not much of an over round, but still enough to ensure that laying is more profitable than backing all the other horses.  Try it :)  If you prove me wrong I will stand corrected ;)  I don’t mind being wrong!
even a two horse race where the odds are A = 1.98 and B = 2.00  is still better to lay.  Of course in a two horse race you are quite likely to get something above the over round matched if you ask for it… however anyone matching it would need their brain checking when they can see that it would be more advantageous to them if they were to back the other horse.
eg
A = 1.98<br>B = 2.00
you ask for 2.1 to back horse A.  Anyone thinking of taking up your offer will first see that it is better for them to back horse B at Evens than lay your offer.  And so the market goes round :)  If I’m typing rubbish someone please sort me out before I make a bigger fool of myself, but I believe a lay of odds will always beat backing all the other horses.
(Edited by larry layer at 11:13 pm on Feb. 23, 2002)
This also works for races involving any number of horses. Laying is much better than backing all the others.
Master, it is the same thing :biggrin: Actually, correct me if I’m wrong, but in a two horse race especially it would be much better to lay than to back the other horse due to the over round in the odds. On betfair it is impossible to back all horses in the race and win, thus its better to use the over round to your advantage.
eg two horse race.
Horse A = 4/5<br>Horse B = Evens
A lay of horse A will give you odds of 5/4 (instead of Evens) on Horse B winning. A lay of Horse B will give you odds of Evens (instead of 4/5) on Horse A winning.
40k may not be out of the ordinary, but an extreme percentage of money layed at any price requested all on one horse is very uncommon.
Punter, you definitely have wetted my apetite. I for one will be looking out for this from now on, and I can only see this increasing in frequency as the exchange becomes more and more popular.
Also, the idea that you can buy a horse and simply lay it off is so simple its ridiculous! Perhaps the forum horse could act as a license for money printing…. am I the only one that thought of that ?! :biggrin: Unfortunately I have no knowledge about owning horses.
The more I think about this the more I’m convinced this is going to become more common and easier to spot. Do you think there is a risk the owner may just be hedging money though, in case it doesnt win ?
I may be wrong in saying this, but have any other layers noticed that the markets have been getting a little tighter recently? in that the prices people are offering aren’t as good as they were. I’ve seen a few instances where the price that was trading was the same or even slightly below that of the normal bookie. I’ve also seen a lot of prices on betfair during the morning which are completely different to the RP predicted SPs.. sometimes quite a bit shorter, which always did appear stingy to me too.
I think the overnight trading maybe a good place to start looking for unusual occurances. Perhaps with a few more people looking into it we could spot these things happening more often….* if * they are happening a lot…
I’m aware Master :) horses have a knack of winning when I don’t want them to! lol… however if something is getting laid at a big price and for unusual amounts of money.. the night before… it’s a little amiss isn’t it ? We are talking about laying here and not backing. If someone is laying that much I am inclined to think that it is more likely to lose than when a horse that is backed heavily –> is likely to win… (if that makes sense !?!?!)
Many times now I have watched a betfair market for horse races take on their own shape regardless of the actual prices the bookies are offering, so I agree that the betfair market is definitely the truest. Unless…. someone has other motives ;)
It’s worth keeping an eye on though. I’m not one to wade in anyway.. I will watch for quite a while first, horses have burnt me too many times which is why I rarely play them anymore.
Slippy :) I was gonna write 1000s, but I didn’t want to hype it too much :) I actually had a week where I made 100 every day…. but that was snooker.. and there isnt any snooker at the moment! :biggrin: + my bank is still new and not big enough to make that much :)
Maybe there is a way for us to keep a track of amounts placed / unusual amounts placed and keep each other informed of our suspicions. A small speculative post or a couple of messages to some buddies on the board and we can track how well our hunches turn out. It could well be used as something of a guide… (just throwing ideas around :) the golf isn’t interesting me so much since Ollie got knocked out!)
Good spot Punter! I shall also be joining in next time ! :biggrin: This person should at least make the price a little less obvious from now on… I think a 4/9 shot layed at 4/5 aught to be screaming out!
I think this is to be expected really, good luck to you if you can spot this happening. Maybe a study of the statistics of money taken on there is in order. I am a big one for studying stats…
Having 30K hanging around is probably very little money compared to some of the betfair big hitters.. and would probably be very easy to amass after a couple of races of laying a certain loser at a great price. I don’t speak from experience, but I do tend to spend a lot of hours watching markets on Betfair and some people have incredible amounts of money to play with. And people do make hundreds a day on there I have no doubt.
Lingfield 4.50 Most Saucy LAY £20 @ 5/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1120
Musselburgh 5.00 Hollow Legs LAY £20 @ 13/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1140
Kempton 5.10 Cappadrummin LAY £20 @ 13/8 WON<br>BANK = £1107.50
After 8 Plays, BANK UP £107.50. 7 Wins, 1 Loss.
Kempton 4.30 Lakefield Rambler LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1080
Warwick 5.10 Joint Favs = NO BET<br>(incidentally, neither won so that would have been another win)
Wolverhampton 5.20 Ostara LAY £20 @ 5/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1100
Bank up £100 in two days, nice start. :biggrin: :cool:
Southwell 4.50 Kent LAY £20 @ 5/4 LOST <br>BANK = £1020
Wincanton 5.00 Captain Corelli LAY £20 @ 3/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1040
Huntingdon 5.10 Oudalmuteena LAY £20 @ 7/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1060
A nice start.
