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Tizzards re. Mister Coffey
The trainer would bother me – Henderson seems very good at getting jumps horses to run very fast but not so good at getting them to do so for long periods of time – I think his best result in the race remains a second with Zongalero back in 1979.
The current top two in the betting look opposable to me – Threeunderthrufive is showing signs he doesn’t like competitive fields with more than a handful of opponents, whilst Mr Incredible is a moonhowler who had effectively refused to race on two of his last three starts. I’m not totally sure this is ideal for Iwilldoit first time out after a long absence, which leads me to Gaitapan Collonges – young, improving, won around here last time out and should handle the likely heavy ground. That will do me nicely.
Frodon has a decent record round here and really ought to be making the frame, at a big price.
Point taken, but…one of the Grade 1 chases was restricted to four-year-olds, so doubtless wouldn’t have too many potential runners from these shores. Mullins is finding out that there is a bit more to winning the big French chases than pointing a 160-rated horse that can raise a gallop on soft ground at a few oversized water jumps, and he has rather more suitable candidates than many British yards. That leaves the three-year-old hurdle, and again not too many British yards will have a viable contender for a championship hurdle in mid-November.
French steeplechaser Parika had an unbeaten run that lasted over five years, from 21 April 1994 until finally beaten on his third start since on 27 October 1999, going unraced from July 1994 to October 1998 and then again to October 1999.
It’ll never happen, but it would wake the season up no end if it was a condition of entry for the championship races at the Festival that the horse had to place in a handicap during the current season.
This is probably the end of the road for this system this time around.
Auchinleck Talbot (12/1) v Heart of Midlothian LOST
Arbroath v Darvel (9/1) LOST
Banks o’Dee (7/1) v Raith Rovers LOST
Clydebank (14/5) v Annan Athletic LOST
Kelty Hearts (15/4) v St Johnstone WONEdit…
Unbelievable…the defending Scottish Cup winners have just gone and got themselves knocked out by Kelty Hearts. (OK, so it’s only St Johnstone, but I did not see that coming).
I’ve been unaware of this thread until the annual awards brought it to my attention, and have really enjoyed reading through it.
I actually saw Franco run over fences, in the 1999 Grand Steeple-chase de Paris no less – when studying the form for next year’s renewal it is worth recalling that he was moving up into a challenging position when spectacularly unseating his rider at the Aintree-style open ditch five from the finish. The race also featured another horse whose namesake would be worthy of an entry here – Al Capone II.
Next round –
Alloa Athletic v Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (21/4) LOST
Arbroath v Forfar Athletic
Auchinleck Talbot (7/2) v Hamilton Academical WON
Ayr United v Albion Rovers
Banks o’Dee (7/2) v East Fife WON
Brechin City v Darvel (29/20)
Civil Service Strollers v Peterhead
Clydebank (10/3) v Clyde WON
Cove Rangers v Queen of the South
Dalbeattie Star v East Kilbride
Dumbarton v Sauchie (16/1) LOST
Falkirk v Raith Rovers
Gala Fairydean Rovers v Annan Athletic
Inverness Caledonian Thistle v Greenock Morton
Kelty Hearts (6/4) v Montrose DREW
Lothian Thistle Hutchison Vale v Edinburgh City
Partick Thistle v Dunfermline Athletic
Queen’s Park v Kilmarnock
Stenhousemuir v Airdrieonians
Stirling Albion v Tranent (4/1) LOSTKelty ought to progress but most of the rest have ties of varying degrees of trickiness – mostly winnable if their league opponents have an off-day or underestimate them. Talbot v Hamilton in particular is an absolutely fascinating, and very winnable, tie.
Al Roc‘s relatively recent French form at around this trip would put him in the mix at a very long price indeed.
Replays –
Elgin City v Clydebank (2/1) WON
Lothian Thistle Hutchison Vale v Dunbar United (31/20) LOSTThe first batch of SPFL teams proper enter at this stage. Any profits from the round probably hinge on whether Jeanfield, Haddington, Bo’ness or Darvel can overturn SPFL opposition (or recent ex-SPFL opposition, in the case of Brechin) away from home.
Annan Athletic v Jeanfield Swifts (9/4) LOST
Banks o’Dee (40/85) v Nairn County WON
Berwick Rangers v Stirling Albion
Brechin City v Haddington Athletic (33/10) LOST
Broomhill v Tranent (17/20) WON
Brora Rangers v Albion Rovers
Clydebank (15/4) v Elgin City DREW
Cowdenbeath v Civil Service Strollers
Dalbeattie Star v Rothes
Dunbar United (23/20) v Lothian Thistle Hutchison Vale DREW
East Kilbride v University of Stirling
East Stirlingshire v Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (4/9) WON
Edinburgh City v Bo’ness United (11/4) LOST
Formartine United v Forfar Athletic
Kelty Hearts (1/5) v Buckie Thistle WON
Preston Athletic v Auchinleck Talbot (1/5) WON
Sauchie v Dunipace
Stenhousemuir v Huntly
Stranraer v Darvel (13/8) WONSauchie won at 7/1
Banks o’Dee won at 1/6
Newtongrange Star drew at 5/1
Blackburn United lost at 11/2
Jeanfield Swifts won at 19/5
Darvel won at 1/4
Bo’ness United drew at 8/15
Cumnock drew at 17/10
Hill of Beath Hawthorn lost at 2/1
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic won at 2/5
Haddington Athletic drew at 12/5
Dunipace won at 9/2Happy with that. I quite fancied the chances of Dunipace and Jeanfield, but Sauchie winning at Highland League leaders Fraserburgh was a real surprise. The system needs to build up a good healthy profit at this stage, as they are all going to get knocked out in the end.
Replays tomorrow:
Bo’ness United (4/11) v Wick Academy
Cumnock (11/10) v Formartine United
Dalbeattie Star v Newtongrange Star (11/4)
Haddington Athletic (6/5) v Deveronvale(Edit: Bo’ness won at 4/11, Haddington won at 6/5, the other two lost)
A few I like for this – Burrows Saint, Any Second Now, Cloth Cap, Farclas – but the one that stands out at the price is Takingrisks, who reserves his best for decent ground and galloping tracks, and whose 4L defeat of Cloth Cap in the 2019 Scottish National reads pretty well. Both have improved since, but Takingrisks is currently ten times the price.
