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onefurlongout,
I think staking plans are a case of "one man’s poison…", etc.
I like to know where I am with my betting and, therefore, work on a fixed and realistic return per race. That way the size of stake is determined by the SP. In other words, staking more on shorter price horses and less on longer priced ones to return the same amount – which makes sense if you look at the strike-rate of SP’s.
Furthermore, I would not invest more than 50% of my expected return so 2/1 would be the lowest price to go in at. That would probably rule this out for your system but I thought I would just throw my coin into the hat, so to speak.
Hi GL
I have made a few changes to the ratings and thought that I would try them out in one of the races covered by Artemis. It will probably be June before I get going as there are still too many who are returning after a Lay off.
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Monster,
I wouldn’t have thought they needed changing too much as they are quite sound already. Would be interested to hear more, via email, if you wish to discuss it.
As for the turf, I will start looking in a week or two at races where horses have all had a run this season before considering applying my class ratings.
Artemis,
Apologies for not having the time to read through the entire post but, I was just wondering whether or not you are using weight-adjusted SF’s?
Just touched off today, Monster.
Nice to see you still with the ratings! I guess you’re playing on the turf now?
I’m still sticking with just the aw for a bit longer.
"As snowman points out, it is an example of gambler’s fallacy because each race is independent of any other race as far as favs are concerned."
Maybe with coin tossing because the chance (50%) remains constant has does the number of sides (two) to the coin. Casino games will also have fixed odds to a fixed amount of numbers/colours – none of them disappear during the game, changing the odds.
Take horse racing (you guy’s can do the math’s); The fav has, roughly a 30% chance of winning one of the seven races at a meeting:
To simplify things, we shall look at it this way; Mr Fav has a 9/4 (30% ish) chance of winning a 7-runner race. One runner drops out a few hours before the off. Does Mr bookmaker keep Mr Fav at 9/4? Just a minute, another horse has dropped out before the off! What price Mr Fav?
I think we have to face facts. Backing unnamed favourites is a recipe for certain failure in the long run. The only positive things about such a strategy are that it takes no thinking about and your losses will be modest if you stay with level stakes single bets within your means. You should lose about 10 per cent of your stakes, so if you bet £20 per race, one meeting a day for a week, it will cost you £100.
I wouldn’t criticise anyone who went to their local betting office every day(maybe a lonely pensioner), did the above for £2 a race, watched every race, had a natter and a cuppa, read the papers, kept nice and warm and all for £10 a week. Perfectly logical and sensible.
That’s OK if you’re into losing for a living!
I agree with some of the other points, Artemis. Don’t get me wrong, I am not in favour of this kind of system and don’t wish to defend it in any way.
However, I think you are both wrong in saying that stat’s/filters are a way of reducing odds value in betting. The majority of punters only have time to pick horses the short-hand way: won LTO, running within x amount of days, dropping in class, thommo-style stat’s (Joe Bloggs 25% strike, here) and this usually ends up with them heading for fav’s which, in turn, will end up being short-priced/overbet.
The stat’s I refer to using are the less obvious ones, like sire: distance, going, track-type, quick-return and trainer: time of year, age-group, race type, race class. Just a few examples to give oneself an edge over the crowd and find the true fav’s, instead of the false ones.
I wish you all the best with it, anyway.
True, but if your’e playing with percentages and probabilities, especially backing fav’s then, personally I would feel better about backing latter one’s if the first two or three fail to make the frame. Take Lingfield today, all but the last had lost. Following this original method would have seen huge, pressure, stakes going on the last as opposed to just playing from the third race onwards.
Just an alternative idea, but not something I wouldn’t get seriously involved in, if at all.
Although I don’t condone this kind of betting activity, along with many on this board, you could also try not betting in the first two or three races and seeing if a fav fails to win these. This will increase the % probability of a fav winning in any of the remaining races. In addition, the more stats and ratings you can get hold of, to isolate the strong favorites, the better.
Bon chance!
An unexpected result!
No excuses can be be made for Monet’s so I will not try and offer any. I think it has something to prove in the future.
Voy Por Ustedes, is clearly the better horse of the two but, has I mentioned in the initial thread, today’s race wasn’t the right one.
Onwards and upwards.
Now now, children.
If you are interested in punting but don’t know one end of a horse from the other then, maybe, paying for tipster information could be the answer. Although, there are plenty of erudite punters, on this forum and another, that provide free information which has stood the test of time and can equal or better anything out there that you wish to pay for.
On the other hand, if you are a punter with a bit of a nose for the game and is still requiring the assistance of paid knowledge then you should really ask yourself two questions:
1. Why do I need to seek paid information?
2. Why am I not finding these selections myself?It doesn’t work, in this game, to be lead by the hand for a long period of time.
The best advice out there (and all for free) is to see with your own eyes and think with your own mind.
Regards
GLAlexander,
I wouldn’t consider having a bet on it today at that price (1/2), especially when it looks outclassed to the tune of 8lbs and the trainers’ course stats are in the red, albeit 3 runners.
Maybe one for the lay punters, today?
GL
Interesting and certainly needs attention drawing to it.
The sample is way too small to form any solid conclusions, though, but it’s a start in the right direction.
GL
Hi CT,
It’s not something you can generalise because it really depends on the individual horse.
Have a look at its past record and see where it won or ran to within 3 lengths of the winner and take a note of both the handicap band and weight it carried. You will soon get a feel of its optimum weight-range.
GL
lol,
I’m still studying the NH races, Cormack. I might post something up later today for you.
GL
Cormack,
I don’t really have interests in anything containing ‘foreign’ form, especially end-of-season flat races. Personally, I would be concentrating on the NH from now on.
However, I did offer input for anything that was put up and conclude:
The only thing I have against Galactic Star is, simply, its last finish "held up, headway over 3f out, led and hung right over 1f out, ridden out". That was on a course with a 10f run-in, though, so it might have an easier time at today’s track. Probably the selection but a weak favourite.
GL
A muddling affair, Formath.
Undeniable, is undeniably (sorry , I couldn’t help that one) the class horse and Bafana Bay is definitely the form horse. Albeit, for the latter, I think the distance is too short today.
GL
Having been spoon-feed the basics I thought I’d give this VDW system a try today in the 4.20 at Folkestone.
I have narrowed the field down to:
Oneforfun
Seven SkyBut although not in the first six in the betting forecast preferences is for:
Tayman
Good luck All
Good call, Pompete.
Here are the ratings for the 4.20 Folkestone:
[code:1hpzpbua]
Saint Godegrand 52 52
Allez Frank 61 48
Supreme Copper 60 57
Osako D´Airy 58 51
Onefourfun 68 74
Coppermalt 54 54
Seven Sky 60 61
Better Moment 56 53
Needle Prick 67 74
Black Cloud 52 52
Tempsford 72 87
Tabaran 56 45
Leadaway 55 50
Schemer Fagan 55 48
Tayman 57 54
Lady Roisin 54 54
[/code:1hpzpbua]GL
