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Yep, only worry was the jumping & fenced well. How to rate the race I wonder?
Thistlecrack – still think he has the potential to do 193. This was comfortable, TomScu never remotely had occasion to remember he carried a whip & horse was eased. Strictly though, about 176.
Cue Card – clearly below expected 178. A fair bit more ineffective at trip & going than I expected & probably affected by being seen off by winner before the straight, so 169.
Silviniaco Conti – expected 168 at conditions, ran on again to do…168!
Tea For Two – expected 166. Good effort, 168.
Josses Hill – expected 165. Sweaty & probably better at shorter, no disgrace though, 164.
Id suggest lower your ratings by 5 pounds for each of what you have said. There is no way it took a 167 performance to beat that lot. Faugheens champion hurdle win was a 173 performance and he hammered a high class field. There is no way yanworth ran to 167 by comparison.
You could well be right TWM. However, if Faugheen had been in form & running today I’d have been expecting 177-182.
Thanks for the commiserations, to say it was rather annoying is an understatement :) If I’d sent Daryl Jacob a Christmas card I’d ask for it back! As I mentioned, I was a little concerned by the horse’s jumping. I think improvement in it led to a performance even better than I expected but, whether he knew the horse’s history or not (and it’s his job to), the last should have been popped. I agree with a lot of the comments above. What is particularly galling is this abomination follows Jacob’s ride on West Of The Edge at Ayr on Monday where he did sit still and do nothing (on a stayer) when that horse was travelling all over everything and then got done for toe. If he was a member of a football team he’d be benched for a month! No wonder it didn’t work out for him at Paul Nicholls’.
He is not alone, Brennan did exactly the same thing in the same circumstances on Barney Dwan’s Chase debut earlier in the season at Kempton (& that after Cue Card in the GC!) Compare it to Richard Johnson on Poker School today, he needed to go for it to seal victory and got it right.
Frodon was beaten in 3rd when coming down and didn’t quite stay. Anibale Fly was never travelling.
Conclusion:
Yanworth – I expected 158, was outpaced but may have done 167 so big improvement & entitled to go for Champion Hurdle.
The New One – expected 168, new bit & forcing tactics (perhaps not so well executed by STD compared to Dickie) not work as well second time, being pressed by MTOY probably a factor. Reverted back to level before last time, 163.
Ch’tibello – expected 146 so totally wrong about him. Must really like Good, massive improvement to 159.
My Tent Or Yours – gave benefit on ground to expect 160. No better than last time, 157. As good as is now.
Yes, it’s very sad.
Beer Goggles had fallen at the 2nd. Ardkilly Witness lead until he suddenly Refused at the 6th. 5 horses were BD including Velator who was jumped onto by a pursuing horse and 2 (including St Raph) were badly hampered & UR. Hollow Blue Sky’s jockey performed a miracle to survive a blinder at the 11th. Eerily on his own apart from a few loose horses for a bit, HBS was reluctant to pass the horseboxes and go out onto the second circuit. Then when confronted by screens and at least 3 ambulances on the inside of the course he came to a complete standstill (at the omitted 15th). He was eventually walked past the scene & just about got going again by the combination of his rider & one of the fallen jockeys chasing him along before evidently Refusing twice at the next.
Yes, far too much and I only watched RUK (& did have a bet in each!) But you can’t blame the individual courses as they all attract great crowds on Boxing Day.
Ps, did anyone else create racecourses with their toys or make up fake commentaries using the racecards in newspapers? Oh, just me then
When I was quite young I had about thirty different coloured marbles each of which I named after a horse and pretend-raced around my nan’s flat, jumping them over things like the stretchers (horizontal support element joining the legs) of wooden chairs!
And I thought I was the only complete nutter who did that.
Of course the colours of the marbles had to correspond (more or less) with the colours carried by the horses:
Orange and Green – Comedy of Errors
Yellow and red stripe – Crisp
Light blue with dark blue stripe – Pendil
Beige and Brown – Captain Christy
Red and White – Birds Nest
Orange – LanzaroteAlso used matchbox cars with hand made ramps to jump them over so there would be a few fallers if they turned over.
Always very difficult to remain impartial and not give your favourite “horse” an extra hard push to win.
Yes, it was! I can’t remember all of mine’s names, they were a mixture of real horses like Foinavon, Arcturus, Fort Leney, Stonehaven and made up ones such as Len, Pussy Cat (a rather attractive marble) and Greedy Pig (slightly bigger than the rest!) :)
Did anyone else play the Waddingtons board game Totopoly?
I did have Totopoly, but I’ve still got my Escaldo from the mid 60’s. Amazingly, all the cast-iron horses still have a leg in each corner.
Yes, I had both. Could never understand how being left at the end with a white disqualification card in Totopoly wiped out everything! With Escalado, I acquired a couple of secondhand sets that friends’ didn’t want so would line up 15 horses, distinguishing those of the same colour by how much paint had peeled off, and have races of multiple ‘laps’ down the straight to create staying distances!
How about They’re Off!?
Elgin is Nigle (a variant of Nigel) spelt backwards!
I opposed Jenkins today because: first Bumper run, LH, won, 9L, impressive, RPR 128. Second Bumper run, RH, up in class, 24 days later, 2nd, RPR 125. First Hurdles run, LH, won 5L, pushed out, RPR 131. Today’s run, RH, up in class, 31 days later…
Today’s run was obviously far worse than the second Bumper run (which was a fair effort) and there may be more to it than needing to be very fresh, being better left-handed and not doing as well as expected up in class but it’s food for thought.
GoldenMiller, sorry i dont get this bit. What does Thistlecrack have a stone in hand on ?
Cue Card. I reckon Thistlecrack has the capability of running to a weight adjusted rating of 197 if putting in a faultless round of jumping whereas I predict Cue Card will run to a weight adjusted 182 at the conditions. I theorise, therefore, that Thistlecrack could make errors costing him 14 lengths and win by 1 length!
So in theory Thistlecrack could also of given a stone to Vatour if he was running?
My point is i find it hard to rate a horse on potential alone. The fact is, to date his best performance was beating ADO 7 lengths in the World Hurdle, apart from that i dont think he has faced a top class horse never mind beaten one.( Sorry my mistake Killultagh Vic beat him at Punchestown )
Over fences he has proved he can jump that’s all.
Best of luck to all who have had a bet and enjoy the race.
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If Vautour was running I would predict an adjusted rating of 186 (as ground will be better than last year which would have allowed Vautour to stay a little bit better) so in theory Thistlecrack could have given him 10 or 11.
Thistlecrack has done nothing but improve since the Killultagh Vic race and I have no doubts about the quality of opposition he’s beaten. Potential comes into my ratings a lot, it’s not always delivered upon but when it is the horse can often be a nice price (though obviously not so in this case).
Hope you enjoy it too.
Hi guys,
Newbie here to this forum. Hoping to get some advice.
I’m wanting to back Thistlecrack in this race. Would you advise backing now at 11/8 or waiting till the day of the race?
Basically do you think the odds will drift or shorten?
Thanks in advance.
Why not back it at 11/8 with best odds guaranteed!
