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Never have so many condemned one horse for so few errors. Time and again, almost everywhere I look I see ‘if Thistlecrack’s jumping holds up’
FACTS: he’s jumped 56 fences in public. He’s made one error. Despite Cue Card’s huge experience, he’s a better jumper than Cue Card who often finds his own way to fiddle himself over a fence. Josses Hill has impressed with his jumping this season, but in percentage terms, he’s made more errors than Cue Card. Tea For Two is a fair jumper and Silv Conti is generally very solid and reliable in his jumping. But Thistlecrack has the style and athleticism to be the best jumper in the field, especially if TS gives him a proper confident ride and ensures a good pace.
Bloody hell, they are all coming out the woodwork now.
Maybe but the attraction of Thistlecrack is that he’s unexposed.
For me the most relevant statistic is that the even money favourite is approaching 11, has ran in the race four times and only won once.
That says it all to me about which of the front two I’d rather back.
Cue Card has the higher rating, the greater experience, the jockey with the better course record. However, he’s a veteran and hasn’t won on proper Good ground since he was a novice.
Thistlecrack has superior speed, probably greater stamina and should appreciate the better ground. However, he lacks Grade 1 chase experience and his jockey has a terrible course record
Given the small field size and the course, i think Thistlecrack could jump big at three or four fences , lose 5-7 lengths in the air and yet still win due to him being quicker between the obstacles.
It’s a race to watch for me.
GoldenMiller, sorry i dont get this bit. What does Thistlecrack have a stone in hand on ?
Cue Card. I reckon Thistlecrack has the capability of running to a weight adjusted rating of 197 if putting in a faultless round of jumping whereas I predict Cue Card will run to a weight adjusted 182 at the conditions. I theorise, therefore, that Thistlecrack could make errors costing him 14 lengths and win by 1 length!
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So in theory Thistlecrack could also of given a stone to Vatour if he was running?
My point is i find it hard to rate a horse on potential alone. The fact is, to date his best performance was beating ADO 7 lengths in the World Hurdle, apart from that i dont think he has faced a top class horse never mind beaten one.( Sorry my mistake Killultagh Vic beat him at Punchestown )
Over fences he has proved he can jump that’s all.
Best of luck to all who have had a bet and enjoy the race.
Haydo, I think he will drift probably because of the concerns, fairly valid, that Botchy highlighted above.
Having said that I still think he’ll win
Woah, Thistlecrack is a fine animal and I think he may well win on Monday,but all this talk of a rating of 197 and being one of the greatest of all time is jumping the gun just a tad!
Kauto Star was only given a rating of 193 for winning the King George by a distance for gawds sake!
My 197 is weight adjusted for carrying 4lbs less than 12 stone so the actual rating would be 193. Having won a World Hurdle smoking a cigar & waving to the crowd recording 178 (to continue an improvement/progression in ratings) it’s likely Thistlecrack could do 183 if pushed to over Hurdles and most horses who take to chasing record at least 10 better over fences, hence 193 – potentially.
Hi guys,
Newbie here to this forum. Hoping to get some advice.
I’m wanting to back Thistlecrack in this race. Would you advise backing now at 11/8 or waiting till the day of the race?
Basically do you think the odds will drift or shorten?
Thanks in advance.
Why not back it at 11/8 with best odds guaranteed!
GoldenMiller, sorry i dont get this bit. What does Thistlecrack have a stone in hand on ?
Cue Card. I reckon Thistlecrack has the capability of running to a weight adjusted rating of 197 if putting in a faultless round of jumping whereas I predict Cue Card will run to a weight adjusted 182 at the conditions. I theorise, therefore, that Thistlecrack could make errors costing him 14 lengths and win by 1 length!
So in theory Thistlecrack could also of given a stone to Vatour if he was running?
My point is i find it hard to rate a horse on potential alone. The fact is, to date his best performance was beating ADO 7 lengths in the World Hurdle, apart from that i dont think he has faced a top class horse never mind beaten one.( Sorry my mistake Killultagh Vic beat him at Punchestown )
Over fences he has proved he can jump that’s all.
Best of luck to all who have had a bet and enjoy the race.
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If Vautour was running I would predict an adjusted rating of 186 (as ground will be better than last year which would have allowed Vautour to stay a little bit better) so in theory Thistlecrack could have given him 10 or 11.
Thistlecrack has done nothing but improve since the Killultagh Vic race and I have no doubts about the quality of opposition he’s beaten. Potential comes into my ratings a lot, it’s not always delivered upon but when it is the horse can often be a nice price (though obviously not so in this case).
Hope you enjoy it too.
That being the case,I hope you have absolutely lumped on Thistlecrack for the Gold Cup at 7/2 as,if he did run to a rating of 193,he could probably run 8lbs below that at Cheltenham and still win the GC convincingly!
Someone said earlier that no horse has ever been condemned so much for making so few errors,but in my opinion never has a horse been lauded so much for achieving so little.Beating up a hugely average staying hurdle division and then winning a few novice races at 1/7 does not make you the second coming of Arkle!
Still,he is a lovely horse and it is all about opinions….Merry Christmas and a profitable Boxing Day to all.
Hi guys,
Newbie here to this forum. Hoping to get some advice.
I’m wanting to back Thistlecrack in this race. Would you advise backing now at 11/8 or waiting till the day of the race?
Basically do you think the odds will drift or shorten?
Thanks in advance.
Why not back it at 11/8 with best odds guaranteed!
I have to admit, I’m with GM on this one. I don’t see him being as big as 11/8 come the off, and
I doubt he will drift out to higher than that between now and then. I could be wrong, but I can
see him going off slightly odds on.First of all can I say I have not had a bet in this!!
To me this is definitely a watch from behind the sofa race!!
If Thistlecrack is as good over fences as he was over hurdles he will beat this lot hands down and that includes Cue Card.
The problem is that it is a big if!! He has never raced at fast jumping pace and that is where the test will be, proof of the pudding and all that! I would love to see him fly and fiddle and jump the last on the bridle but I fear for him making mistakes at proper racing pace.
A terrific race to watch albeit a dangerous one.
It is a bit of a shame there aren’t more runners though.I hope they all come back safe.
That’s a dodgy classification of an error, Mark. We’ve both seen many a horse not come up to order, going either long or short – formbook would be riddled with them if that was the interpretation.
An error, to me, is something that impedes progress. Absolutely nothing wrong with a horse coming up a stride sooner than his jockey wants so long as the horse has the scope to carry it off. My sole concern for Monday is Scu not giving him a ballsy enough ride. If he sets out with the belief that he’s on the best horse and the best jumper, that should be all he needs, bar the avoidance of bad luck.
imo Depends on experience of the horse, Joe. If Thistlecrack was an established chaser then “coming up a stride sooner than his jockey wants” would not worry me. But the fact is he’s had just three runs over fences. When an inexperienced horse makes a hait of standing off a stride sooner, then the chances are at some point he will hit one. Fact is he’s had very little experience in being led… and the few fences he has taken with just one horse in front resulted in a major error at a ditch. If not allowed to lead there will be more pressure on his jumping – particularly at ditches. If I were Tom, I’d go off fast so other jockeys believe he’s going too fast (allowing him the lead) then slow it down.
Value Is EverythingIf Thistlecrack beats Cue Card narrowly tomorrow and CC goes and wins the Gold Cup i can foresee a punch up in the car park when the respective owners next meet as CC is on a £1m bonus if he bags the next 2 and that’s why i’m not betting in the KG as i think Colin Tizzard is on a win/lose here whatever happens.
Hi guys,
Newbie here to this forum. Hoping to get some advice.
I’m wanting to back Thistlecrack in this race. Would you advise backing now at 11/8 or waiting till the day of the race?
Basically do you think the odds will drift or shorten?
Thanks in advance.
If you back any horse to win @ Ladbrokes you get your money back up to £25 if cue Card wins. You have to place it using your mobile on the mobile site.
Here we go….TAPK’s letting his bets run…Its how legends are made even if my bums a little squeaky.
Here we go….TAPK’s letting his bets run…Its how legends are made even if my bums a little squeaky.
Good luck TAPK
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