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To calculate the over round simply add up the stake for each price in the market that will return 100 points.
For example
Odds stake return
5/2___28___98
3/1___25__100
6/1___14___98
7/1___12.5_100
7/1___12.5_100
9/1___10__100
16/1___6__102
total_108
If the bookie laid the prices above to the figures stated he would make 8% on the race. His book is 8% over round.Barney (the real one)
VDW said the ‘class horse’ seldom fails to capture the prize when that prize is big enough. The prize is big enough tomorrow, only the Grand National, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the Queen Mother Champion Chase and the King George VI Chase offers more prize money. It is also the first leg of the million pound bonus, so there is extra incentive for the trainer to have him spot on.
The method you mentioned is I presume….â€
Hal
You will note that your subscription edition is made up of individual sections or booklets bound together by a shoelace. If you go to race 2243 it should be the Erin. At the top of that page in small letters it should say Raceform Up-to-Date (Chaseform) followed by a date possibly 18 March, 1978. Turn back a few pages (towards the front of the book) until you come to the page headed CHASEFORM UP-TO-DATE in much larger letters followed by Sat., and the same date as before followed by a number in brackets like (No, 17). That is the beginning of that particular section. Now go back through each section until you come to the one headed Sat., Feb 18. It could be headed Feb 11 or Feb 4 but it cannot be dated after Feb 18. That is the last section that would have been in your form book at the time of the Erin. Go to the last page of that particular section and note the last race number. Beacon Light’s last race was number 2175 and Mr Kildare’s was 2125. If the last race number that you noted was lower than these then their form would not have been in the book. Neither would it have been for quite a few others in the race. I hope all this has been easy to follow.
Finally, go to the white section at the front of the book and you should find an index of horses with their race record from previous seasons. Look up Prominent King and you will see two wins in 75-76.Hensman
From your research it has now been established that the 5 horses listed in the Erin example were not the forecast from the Sporting Life or Chronicle and there is a very strong possibility that VDW used the Daily Mail on that day. Personally, I don’t believe VDW had either the Life or the Chronicle on that day for two very good reasons.
1) I can’t see why VDW would choose a forecast from a daily newspaper over a sporting daily. This would show he had no faith in the forecast from that sporting daily.
2) All English racing had been abandoned from Thu, Feb 9, right up to that Sat, Feb 18, and even beyond. In fact English racing did not resume until Fri, Feb 24. So what would be the point of buying a racing daily if you knew there would be nothing in it.
Now, VDW mentioned weights carried last time out, where did he get this information? Hensman, I don’t know if you took any photo-copies from the Mail but I suspect there may have been a form summary of the fancied horses under each race, most likely written by Robin Goodfellow. If it exists you may find the phrase “Beacon Light had a hard race against Sea Pigeonâ€Crock
VDW wrote “One method I use (note the word I) selects perhaps two or three horses per week, never more and the prices seldom exceed 2-1, but THEY NEARLY ALL WIN. Another gives ME no more than a couple of dozen ALL YEAR, but it is UNUSUAL FOR ONE TO LOSE. Yet another finds not more than one a day, but not every day with a WIN PERCENTAGE WELL INTO THE EIGHTIES and all manner of prices, for instance, March 12, Desert Hero 20-1 and for the Cheltenham Festival…Gaye Brief 7-1, Badsworth Boy 2-1, and the Gold Cup winner Bregawn 100-30. All these were achieved with the aid of NOTHING MORE than can be found EACH DAY in the Sporting Chronicle.â€
Hensman
If it is of any interest the betting forecast from my local evening paper was 11/8 Beacon Light, 3/1 Decent Fellow, 6/1 Prominent King, 8/1 Mr Kildare, Monksfield, 10/1 Meladon. This paper reached the shops on Friday afternoon and only the Erin meeting was shown. So the other four meetings due to take place on the Saturday had already been called off. Both the Life and Chronicle would have rolled off the presses on Friday night / Saturday morning so must surely have carried the same solitary meeting.
You said the Life had Meladon instead of Monksfield, is that not proof that VDW did not use the Life that day. VDW wrote “the only race in my paper which was ‘on’ “, that paper then, must be either the Chronicle (which hasn’t been discounted yet) or a national daily newspaper, such as the one you mentioned, the Daily Mail.
If it were a national daily (obviously with good racing coverage) then he must have gone down the cards marking off the 3 most consistent in his chosen races. Could he then have calculated his 2 ratings from information in that paper, then and only then, as the text suggests in the Erin example, check the form. To check the form he could only have read the form summary from his daily, or check the form book if he subscribed to it, or trot off to his local bookies to check out the racing papers.Crock
Very true! It was obviously the Life he was referring to with Strombolus, but he could very well have been checking those papers on the boards in his local bookies. I won’t quote the obvious proof VDW took the Chronicle “each dayâ€
Thank you Crock
There is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that VDW would have used the Life in 1985. The last edition of the Sporting Chronicle was printed in July, 1983.
Hensman
By those with half a brain I take it you mean the high street bookmakers who put both papers on the boards for the punters in the 70’s. It would help if you could present some of your evidence that the Life was his main racing paper.
Hensman
There is a third possibility as to what VDW meant when he said PK did not have a winning class rating and that is, he used the Sporting Chronicle and genuinely did not know the horse had won a race previously. Apparently, the Sporting Chronicle did not show a horses’ win record and total win prize money as in the Life. If this is so, it would also prove he did not use ability ratings in that race.
Crock
I have read your post and split the quartiles.
Stakes races only
Quartile O.R.________Ability
Top____27___45%___20___33%
2nd____17___28%___13___22%
3rd____12___20%___17___28%
4th_____4____7%___10___17%
Races__60__100%___60__100%Handicaps
Quartile O.R.________Ability
Top____23___31%___17___23%
2nd____17___23%___18___24%
3rd_____21___28%___27___36%
4th_____13___18%___12___16%
Races__74__100%___74__100%Class Tells
After taking out all races that contained 2 and 3-y-o’s there were only 18 left. So instead, it is as before but with all 2-y-o races removed and also any race where the winner did not have an official rating such as Hurricane Run in the King George and Queen Elizabeth, who was French trained.
As stated before, the stats are from my evaluations, July 1 to Nov 4, 2006. Flat only.
They show the ranking of the winners’ official rating and ability rating for comparison.______O.R.________Ability
Top____31___23%___18___13%
2nd____16___12%___16___12%
3rd____16___12%___20___15%
4th____17___13%___12____9%
5th____15___11%___17___13%
6th_____8____6%____6____4%
7th_____6____4%___11____8%
8th_____6____4%____7____5%
9th_____3____2%____5____4%
10th____2____1%____9____7%
11th____4____3%____5____4%
12th____0____0%____3____2%
13th____2____1%____1____1%
14th____3____2%____0____0%
15th____2____1%____1____1%
16th____1____1%____3____2%
17th____1____1%____0____0%
18th____0____0%____0____0%
19th____0____0%____0____0%
25th____1____1%____0____0%
Races_134_100%__134__100%From the 31 winners who were top on official rating, 19 were from stakes races and 12 from handicaps. 4 of these handicap winners were 3-y-o against older horses, so were not top weight due to weight-for-age allowance.
Now for my quartiles. The number of runners in each field was divided by 4 so that the ranking would fit into a specific box. So with an 8 runner field if the winner was top or second on ability it would be in the first or top quartile, if it was fifth or sixth it would be in the third quartile, seventh or eighth in the bottom quartile. For 5 or 6 runners, only the top rated would fit into the top quartile and only the bottom rated would fit into the bottom. I hope all that is clear.
Quartile O.R.________Ability
Top_____50___37%___37___28%
2nd_____34___25%___31___23%
3rd_____33___25%___44___33%
4th_____17___13%___22___16%
Races__134__100%__134__100%As you can see a different picture has now emerged with regards to ability rating. Almost a third of the winners had an ability rating that was ranked in the bottom third quarter in the field.
My thanks to Crock for mentioning quartiles, as the last thing I would have wanted was to give statistics that were misleading.Grand Lodge
Just as a matter of interest. What size sample would you say is sufficient for an acceptable survey?
Class Tells
Below are a few stats from my evaluations, July 1 to Nov 4, 2006. Flat only.
They show the ranking of the winners ability rating.top 20 14%
2nd 14 10%
3rd 21 14%
4th 14 10%
5th 15 10%
6th 10 7%
7th 8 5%
8th 8 5%
9th 11 8%
10th 3 2%
11th 7 5%
12th 5 3%
13th 2 1%
14th 1 1%
15th 2 1%
16th 3 2%
17th 1 1%
18th 0 0%
19th 1 1%
races 146 100%So the top rated on ability won 14% of races, second top rated 10% etc.
These races include 2-y-o and 3-y-o races, handicaps and stakes. I will reproduce the above for 4-y-o and upwards races only, as this will give a better comparison. I did not keep a record of O.R’s in these races but it is possible to add them, although this could take some time.
Now! Tell me how do you compare O.R’s to ability ratings in a handicap.Does anyone have any newspaper or sporting life ratings for the Little Owl race in spells it all out. Ideally, I would like them for all 4 races but it would be a waste of effort if nothing can be gleaned from just this one example.
Hensman
In the results section of the Sporting Life it records any large wagers struck. In the case of Burrough Hill Lad it would have something like, bets of £5,000 – £4,000, £10,000 – £8,000 etc. These are not exact figures but you know what I mean. The meeting was one of the most important in the N.H. calendar. Burrough Hill Lad was an odds on favourite so obviously large bets would have been struck by both high rollers and professionals. How do you know VDW was not referring to the un-named people who struck the bets above?
How do you know that he wasn’t referring to a business associate who regards a £1,000 bet the same way an ordinary punter regards a £10 bet?
If you were VDW’s associate and knew his methods would you not compare notes with him before placing a bet to make sure you had got it right?
As you said, we will never know for sure.Arkle
If the race in question HAD recorded the fastest slower than standard time then the speed figure would have been even higher.
Maggsy/Hensman
Everything must be related to class.
Look at the Ascot meeting on Sat, Dec 14, 1985. Consider the chases only.
12.15 Class 56 Nov Ch won by Desert Orchid, speed figure 85, slower than standard time 4.2, 6 ran.
1.55 Class 125 Hcap Ch won by Door Latch, speed figure 24, slower than standard time 8.6, 8 ran. (BURROUGH HILL LAD third btn 11 lengths sf 35)
2.30 Class 65 Hcap Ch won by Admiral’s Cup, speed figure 80, slower than standard time 0.9, 6 ran.
As you know speed figures are calculated from the faster/slower than standard time figure and are adjusted by weight carried and the going allowance. When speed figures are available these should be used to compare, when they are not we must compare the faster/slower than standard time figure.
The 1.55 is the highest class race above and it SHOULD HAVE produced the highest speed figure. If it had been a 3 or 4 runner affair then that could have been used as an excuse.
It was the combination of the significant reduction in speed figure, from 78 first time out to 35 last time out and the proof of a slow run race as shown above together with the horse doing nothing from the last 2 fences that showed VDW that Burrough Hill Lad was out of form.Look at the Haydock meeting on Wed, Dec 11, 1985. Consider the chases only.
1.30 Class 24 Nov Ch won by Repington, speed figure -, slower than standard time 33.5, 4 ran.
2.00 Class 59 Ch won by EARLS BRIG, speed figure -, slower than standard time 27.8, 4 ran. (WAYWARD LAD second btn half a length sf -)
3.00 Class 31 Hcap Ch won by Gemelek, speed figure -, slower than standard time 28.6, 3 ran.
Next day same going (soft)
1.30 Class 22 Nov Ch won by Strands of Gold, speed figure -, slower than standard time 59.4, 5 ran.
2.30 Class 29 Hcap Ch won by Hardy Lad, speed figure -, slower than standard time 40.4, 10 ran.
The 2.00 is the highest class race above and it produced the FASTEST slower than standard time figure as it should have. So there is nothing to suggest both Earls Brig and Wayward Lad are out of form.Look at the Cheltenham meeting on Sat, Dec 7, 1985. Consider the chases only.
1.40 Class 122 Hcap Ch won by COMBS DITCH, speed figure 100, slower than standard time 22.5, 7 ran. (HALF FREE fourth btn twelve and a half lengths sf 78)
2.15 Class 46 Nov Ch won by Arctic Stream, speed figure 37, slower than standard time 34.6, 8 ran.
2.50 Class 43 Hcap Ch won by Jo Colombo, speed figure 82, slower than standard time 18.6, 3 ran.
Previous day same going (soft)
1.05 Class 31 Hcap Ch won by Troilena, speed figure -, slower than standard time 20.4, 5 ran.
2.15 Class 60 Hcap Ch won by Run and Skip, speed figure 76, slower than standard time 15.2, 6 ran.
2.50 Class 28 Ch won by Von Trappe, speed figure -, slower than standard time 31.8, 7 ran.
The 1.40 is the highest class race above and it produced the highest speed figure as it should have. Note that it was not the fastest slower than standard time figure. So there is nothing to suggest Combs Ditch is out of form. But what about Half Free?
VDW does not have him as a form horse and there was no significant reduction in speed figure, 79 first time out to 78 last time out. So at the moment I am settling for the distance beaten combined with the fact that Half Free lost his place 3 out and passed two weakening horses from the last 2 fences to finish fourth.Finally and this may seem obvious, a horse that has won last time out MUST be considered in form, provided that win was in the current season or within a certain time limit. The reason I say this is because of Beau Ranger, VDW’s cat and everything I have portrayed above. Another one to note above is Von Trappe, winning the lowest class above, therefore not expected to produce the highest speed figure. Having said all that then, only a beaten horse last time out can be considered to be in or out of form.
