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That’s 4 shots Exotic Dancer has had at Kauto Star and came up short each time, although he has run admirably in defeat each time. I don’t think I could ever bet Exotic Dancer against Kauto Star. Only way he’s going to finish in front of the champ is if Kauto makes serious mistakes or the ground is bottomless. Great to have 2 horses like them going head to head for our entertainment
ED has had ONE CLEAR SHOT at KS and that was today, he’s been beaten 1/2 length catching a tiring winner with every stride
Saying he can’t turn around 1/2 length is foolish, just like it was foolish thinking he couldn’t make up 2.5L, 8L or 20L when he hadn’t had a clear shot at KS
I personally think My Way De Solzen not having a run out before today was a big hinderance for him.
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T’was a big ask for MWDS in those conditions FTO, against that kind of opposition
i’d deffo give another crack at 3 mile
KG Kingy and if he fails to last home you can drop back for Chelters
And still the bookmakers underestimate Exotic Dancer. Paddy Power go 4/6 Kauto 6/1 Exotic Dancer for the King George. That’s a no-brainer isn’t it? As long as E/W is still a pleasure!
Shhh David
Just watched replay and i can’t wait for em to go head to head again in King George
Hard to believe ED has no Grade One win to his name innit – some poor placement by jonjo
What it shows imo David is ratings alone don’t tell the whole story
btw, i get 177 for winner
Hard to pick a poster as everyone who takes time to contribute deserves credit
David Johnson is a very good regular poster and his opinions are always worth a read, so he just gets my click
He got a clear shot, but he just wasn’t quite good enough
cracking race and worth the entrance imo
He’s certainly gonna like conditions David, but would need the market leaders to be well hindered by conditions to win wouldn’t he???
Not been following artificial stuff David , but won’t less trouble in running occur if jocks come away from rail and therefore make the racing a bit fairer for all???
Not a betting race for me. but a very interesting race for future reference
fwiw – Hardy would be my pick and all the best to those going in on him
reet/David
Where getting there
What about the ED being held, is he?
In the 3 races where KS and ED met, i’ve not seen ED have a clear shot at KS
Aintree – just like Carlisle last year – a prep
KG, held up to get trip
tracked leading pair 3 out, went 2nd and blundered next, no chance with winner
GC again held up to get trip
hit 9th and 12th, hit 15th, headway 3 out, not much room on inside approaching 2 out, driven to chase winner last but no impressionThey know there are no problems with the trip and with a clear shot, is there a possibility ED can make up 2.5 lengths on KS ????
KS well ahead on ratings, Exotic Dancer held, MWDS needs to improve and needs run
Why have the layers got him at around a 50% probability?
TIMEFORM RATINGS
Aces Four 163
Beef Or Salmon 173x
Denman 168p
Exotic Dancer 181
Kauto Star 190
Madison du Berlais 156
Monkerhostin 163
My Way de Solzen 167p
Offshore Account 155
Ollie Magern 162
Taranis 165
Too Forward 158
Turpin Green 167$
Yes Sir 154If the ratings are to believed, KS should be somewhere near a 80/90% probability
Why have the layers got him at around a 50% probability?
Why not take the 8s with BlueSq now then. It’s NRNB. Or 7s is generally available. Do you use the early betting to form part of your decision-making? Just curious.
I prefer raceday betting and nope
hi Ew, thank you for that but a little puzzled :-
how is MWDS an unknown at the trip?
Stating obvious UM. but He’s not been in 3 mile Chase, so therefore he’s an unknown quantity in 3 mile Chases
what claims does Exotic D have of reversing form when beaten 3 out of 3 so far, I think I’m right in saying.
I only see the GC as being a proper "form" guide, where both horses jumped summat like, but where ED did not get the best of runs having been stopped when Mcoy Coy wanted to kick for home
There is a chance of him being able to reverse or at least put KS under pressure because of this
Hope this helps UM
