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I miss Francome. Its just not the same without him. I like Mick Fitz but he ain’t no Francome. Which would you rather have a night out with? Exactly!
I can’t warm to Cunningham, i don’t dislike him, but i’m just not sure.
I like Balding, and Lord Snooty. And Jim "eyes closed while i talk" Mcgrath is ok.
And i have quite a soft spot for "T", imagine her whispering sweet odds in your ear at bed time!
but then found this – the guy had claimed multipole times. Ok.
Might give them the benefit of the doubt.
but then found this.
Ok – sounds fair!softie – the word i will be spreading is that you can only bet you rbonus at that website at £1 per day.
http://sportsbookupdate.com/betting-lim … ebets-com/
I’ve requested my money back. Hope i get it.
thought i’d look up Racebets.com.
Discover limits on bettign your "bonus", you will only be allowed to bet £1 at a time/per day. Meaning it would take £100 bets to clear the "bonus".
Money withdrawn – hope i get it back!!
WARNING
Ginge you continuoulsy go on about value – and rightly so – but the actual result has no bearing on whether the bet was value.
If i back a horse at 33/1 but believe the horse has a 20% chance of winning, i got massive value. If the horse wins i got massive value, if it loses i got massive value.
The 2/1 shot you backed for your full 7 points might only have a had a 10% chance of winning. The actual result is no reflection of value.
I can’t help but feel you have let your self down with this!
eg Two punters are given 7 points to bet with how they see fit.
One punter has seven individual 1 point ante-post bets all @ 20/1. Only one actually makes it to the course and returns 21 points of his original 7 points outlay.
One punter does not bet ante-post and just has the one bet on the day, one 7 point bet @ 2/1, returning 21 points for his original 7 point outlay.
Both punters have exactly the same value.
Now this is interesting ginge!
Both punters have the same value? What is your definition of value here?
Ginge, i admire your approach, you have shown it is profitable and consistent, however……..it will always attract detractors.
Woolfs question was "who backs 7 horses in race?". Well clearly you do, and you have demonstrated it is successful.
I admire your success.
However your detractors will always struggle with it because it is a difficult set of bets and staking plan to follow. To I ensure i get your 18% return i have to ensure i place every bet, and imo you have too many selections. I need to log in several times a day to get them all.
You will forever be defending your approach.
Maybe a thread where you post once a day, that way people could follow your selections? (As many bets in one race as you like!)
Once again – i have nothing but admiration for your approach.
Much love
hi ginge, admire your stats, and interested to understand your logic on the e/w at 3/1?
keep up the good work
Maths, maths, maths, maths, maths & more maths.
There really are simpler ways of expressing things.
I’m a simple man who likes to keep things simple.
If First Lieutenant does not win either race at the fetsival how much is lost?
£8k – therefore that is the stake.I thank you.
+EV = value.
Simples. No need for any further explainations of the value concept in this thread please.
I wouldn’t rule a horse out just because it has longer odds than the number of runners in the race though, as that way we miss all the longer priced winners.
I’d say this thread could just be a candidate for the Systems section?
Trying and failing can ruin a legacy.
David Haye was/is the greatest Cruiser weight (Staying Hurdler) on the planet right now (Evander Holyfield being too old!), but winning Cruiserweight World title fights (World Hurdle) earns a boxer nothing in comparison to the riches that await a Heavyweight World champion (Gold Cup).
Had he stuck to the Cruiserweight division theres a good chance he could have defended the unified title for a very long time (5 World Hurdles). But the glory and riches are in the heavyweight division where he is probably just a top 10 fighter. But credit has to be given for giving it a go.
Most people will probably remember David Haye as the man schooled by a Klitschko, who moaned about his little toe, but credit has to go to him for at least stepping up and trying to mix it with the big boys. And he was World Heavy Weight Champion.
The only horse i was happy to see win having backed something else.
I can’t foresee a horse ever generating the emotions that were witnessed after the wins at Kempton and Haydock last year.
The loudest applause at Cheltenham last year was not for a winner, but for an 11 year old veteran having had father time catch up with him.
Au revoir Kauto.
Backing the favourite 10 times, and it winning 9.5 times is a worse return than the50-1 shot winning 0.5 times out of 10!
Inspired tipping BB.
All this bickering is rather boring.
Its all really simple;
Ginge backs horses that, and this bit is really important, HE thinks are over priced. He doesn’t limit himself to one over priced horse per race. If he thinks 3 are over priced he backs them.
He establishes his belief that the horse is over priced through his knowledge of horse racing.
How do we measure how good Ginge is at spotting overpriced horses?
We look at his results, and they show a steady 12% return on stake. Over a long period of time as well.
TAPK moans that there are too many percentages, but he uses the same method. He backs horses that he believes are over priced. He just doesn’t have such a scientific method.
Anyone that turns a profit from regularly placing money with a bookmaker is doing well in my book. That people want to argue now about the level of profit is a compliment to Ginge.
On the downside, i don’t like this thread that much! Ginge has proven he can spot over priced horses, but i prefer the discusssion as to why the horse is over priced. I also like to stand and cheer one horse on (go on my cocker, go on, go on, YES, you beauty). I like to feel that i worked it out, that i found the winner. And this thread doesn’t offer that.
Can we stop challenging Ginges system, its clearly it works.
Ginge – you do not need to defend yourself. You have shown consistant and regular profit. That is the defence. Rather than spending the time offering maths lessons, give us some race analysis – this horse is overpriced in my view because………
Any how, just my thoughts. This used to be a really interesting part of the forum before all the bickering.
