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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

dave renham

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  • in reply to: draw outliers to note #85047
    dave renham
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    • Total Posts 6

    Uhoomagoo has now gone in twice at 7-1, while Jubilee Street won at 9-2 last Saturday.

    Of the others Amelia and Fair Shake have yet to run, while Johnstone’s Diamond came 2nd at Ripon at 8-1. Ellen’s Academy has finished 4th twice and King’s County 3rd.

    cheers<br>Dave<br>www.drawn2win.co.uk

    in reply to: draw outliers to note #85044
    dave renham
    Member
    • Total Posts 6

    Seabird

    Both are on my outliers list so a yes to your question.

    Here are some on my current list :

    Fair Shake<br>Ellens Academy<br>Johnstones Diamond (4th poor draw Beverley)<br>Amelia (I think a good run from a low draw at Bath when racing prominently is worth a place on the outliers list)<br>Armagnac (8th of 20 from low draw at Doncaster and always wide on track)<br>Jubilee Street (good run at Doncaster in claimer from poor draw)<br>Audience (best of high numbers at Kempton over a mile in race dominated by low)<br>Golden Spectrum (3rd + best of low draws at Hamilton)

    cheers<br>Dave

    http://www.drawn2win.co.uk<br>

    in reply to: draw outliers to note #85038
    dave renham
    Member
    • Total Posts 6

    Uhoomagoo and Gojo have both run again in the last couple of days. Gojo ran well his elders at Nottingham finishing 2nd to Amelia, while Uhoomagoo was disappointing at Thirsk. Both horses still merit consideration next time out.

    Dave<br>www.drawn2win.co.uk

    in reply to: draw outliers to note #85037
    dave renham
    Member
    • Total Posts 6

    I think you might be right. Smaller field will suit and is probably capable of stepping up in class.

    Cheers<br>Dave<br>www.drawn2win.co.uk

    in reply to: draw outliers to note #85034
    dave renham
    Member
    • Total Posts 6

    Hi Steve

    A different sort of bias rather than a draw bias perhaps. Alkaadhem was clearly an outlier from the Lincoln the race before – hence part of the reason for the crazy price.<br>With a clear run he probably would have won, but there was always a good chance all the horses were going to bunch on the high side. Trouble in running was always likely to be a factor.

    I must admit, I’m not a great fan of hold up horses that get "bad luck". I’m not saying Alkaadhem is one of those, but there are plenty of hold up sprinters for example, that you could back time after time because they keep being "unlucky".

    Cheers<br>Dave<br>www.drawn2win.co.uk

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