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  • #3490
    dave renham
    Member
    • Total Posts 6

    Here is a list of horses that seem to have run well against a draw bias recently :

    Kings County – 3rd from stall 8 in Newbury Spring Cup in race dominated by high draws

    Uhoomagoo – 7th in same race as above from stall 1.

    Gojo – 4th in nottingham 6f handicap on Saturday when 1st home of stands’ side in a race where 5 of first 6 raced far side.

    cheers<br>Dave<br>www.drawn2win.co.uk

    #85033
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    Hi Dave

    What about Alkaadhem in the Spring Cup?

    On a superficial level, it was a great draw but for a hold-up horse where the low draws were going to come over to the high side, it was a nightmare.

    He did well to come through for 4th, I thought.

    Steve

    #85034
    dave renham
    Member
    • Total Posts 6

    Hi Steve

    A different sort of bias rather than a draw bias perhaps. Alkaadhem was clearly an outlier from the Lincoln the race before – hence part of the reason for the crazy price.<br>With a clear run he probably would have won, but there was always a good chance all the horses were going to bunch on the high side. Trouble in running was always likely to be a factor.

    I must admit, I’m not a great fan of hold up horses that get "bad luck". I’m not saying Alkaadhem is one of those, but there are plenty of hold up sprinters for example, that you could back time after time because they keep being "unlucky".

    Cheers<br>Dave<br>www.drawn2win.co.uk

    #85036
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    Hi Dave

    I agree. I thought he was a mad price on Saturday and laying him was my bet of the day.

    9/4 for him to not only get through the traffic but to do so without another horse stealing too big a march on him is not logical.

    Anyway, the reason he went into my notebook was that he’ll probably go to a listed or G3 next time where the field will be far smaller and he’ll have a far better chance even though he’s technically stepping up in class.   <br> <br>Best wishes

    Steve

    #85037
    dave renham
    Member
    • Total Posts 6

    I think you might be right. Smaller field will suit and is probably capable of stepping up in class.

    Cheers<br>Dave<br>www.drawn2win.co.uk

    #85038
    dave renham
    Member
    • Total Posts 6

    Uhoomagoo and Gojo have both run again in the last couple of days. Gojo ran well his elders at Nottingham finishing 2nd to Amelia, while Uhoomagoo was disappointing at Thirsk. Both horses still merit consideration next time out.

    Dave<br>www.drawn2win.co.uk

    #85041
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    Dave,

    In your opinion would Fair Shake’s run at Newcastle and Ellen’s Academy’s at Newmarket qualify them as outliers.<br>It would be appreciated by me, and I’m sure other forumites, if you would keep these comments coming.

    Thanks

    Colin

    #85044
    dave renham
    Member
    • Total Posts 6

    Seabird

    Both are on my outliers list so a yes to your question.

    Here are some on my current list :

    Fair Shake<br>Ellens Academy<br>Johnstones Diamond (4th poor draw Beverley)<br>Amelia (I think a good run from a low draw at Bath when racing prominently is worth a place on the outliers list)<br>Armagnac (8th of 20 from low draw at Doncaster and always wide on track)<br>Jubilee Street (good run at Doncaster in claimer from poor draw)<br>Audience (best of high numbers at Kempton over a mile in race dominated by low)<br>Golden Spectrum (3rd + best of low draws at Hamilton)

    cheers<br>Dave

    http://www.drawn2win.co.uk<br>

    #85045
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    Thanks Dave.

    Colin

    #85047
    dave renham
    Member
    • Total Posts 6

    Uhoomagoo has now gone in twice at 7-1, while Jubilee Street won at 9-2 last Saturday.

    Of the others Amelia and Fair Shake have yet to run, while Johnstone’s Diamond came 2nd at Ripon at 8-1. Ellen’s Academy has finished 4th twice and King’s County 3rd.

    cheers<br>Dave<br>www.drawn2win.co.uk

    #85049
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    While we’re giving updates, Alkaadhem followed up his Spring Cup defeat with a win at Goodwood at 100/30 in a 10 runner Listed race.

    Steve

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