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5/11/02
1.50 Folkestone
Jair Du Cochet W 8/15
SR = 1/1 = 100%<br>LSP = +0.53<br>*********************************<br>Staking Plan: <br>Day Stake, aim = 10 / .53 = 19 pts staked<br>Profit/Loss Day: +10<br>Profit/Loss System: +10<br>System Points Staked: 19<br>ROI: +52%<br>*********************************
<br>(Edited by dave jay at 9:38 pm on Nov. 5, 2002)<br>
(Edited by dave jay at 9:44 pm on Nov. 5, 2002)
Thank you for your very valid points Robert.<br>A true story, I kid you not.<br>In 1987 I was working in Bristol and a group of the people I worked with got together and formed a betting syndicate. The syndicate was based around DGA rating program and the by then defunked VDW system. The syndicates aim was to get to a situation where we would be able to make a profit from gambling to pay for the software and for nights out. There were about ten people in the syndicate and we managed to get the VDW system working……..As advertised in the Racing Press.<br>I’ll post up what we discovered, but it might take me a while to type it.
Ian,<br>Yes, that’s what I meant. Any thoughts on how one might avoid being banned?
Nice one jasonr, i could.
So Ian, if a punter does have a system and it breaks even and he forces into profit using an aggressive staking plan, say he’s coming from a bank of £10 – £15K to win £150 a day and he consistently wins say five days out of six.<br>How long would it take, from a bookies point of view before you closed his account?
I won’t be posting this system up after today because I’m starting a new one for November.<br>This system is a good one but the results so far have been better than average so it is due a losing run soon.<br>I don’t use stop at a winner with this plan as I filter the selections further when I am using it by only selecting beaten favourites when they were odds-on last time out.<br>*******************************************<br>System Total. SR = 14/33 = 42.4% LSP = +13.2<br>*******************************************<br>A good system – hope you use it.
(Edited by dave jay at 6:32 pm on Nov. 4, 2002)
I won’t be posting this system up anymore because I think you can see how this works and I’m posting another system up today.<br>This system breaks even in the long run.<br>Stop at a winner shortens losing runs. <br>Longest Losing Streak with stop at a winner is 9 so far in last two years (without 15). <br>A staking plan will improve profitability but can be expensive because you can’t leave out the odds-on shots.<br>*****************************************<br>System Results: SR = 14/31 = 45.16% LSP = +0.99<br>*****************************************<br>Enjoy the system and happy punting<br>*****************************************
(Edited by dave jay at 6:28 pm on Nov. 4, 2002)
Hi Kotkijet,<br>I have no idea!<br>The only place where I think you could get htat type of information would be from FLATSTATS, type that into www. and have a look.
Seagull has made a good point there about historical data. IMO you can’t know if a system works until you have gathered at least a full season’s results (preferably three seasons). That’s where Impact Values and big number mathematics help to determine the validity of the data. The trick to finding a workable system is finding one that suits your own personality, that you can work with. Some people hate losing, so look for shorter priced selections. Others care not a jot win or lose and carry on through losing streaks of 20 or upwards.<br>Without the proper analysis you can’t have the confidence to carry on betting because you don’t know what to expect over a long period of time. That’s why systems don’t work…….you’ve got to do your home work!
4/11/02
Wagner X<br>Coolsan W 13/8<br>Existential X<br>Monkerhostin W 4/5<br>Bay Island W 6/4
Today won at 2 @ 4/5 LSP = -0.2
(Edited by dave jay at 4:08 pm on Nov. 4, 2002)
4/11/02
Blue Streak X<br>Joyeux Royal W 9/4
Today = SR = 1/2 = 50% LSP = +1.25
(Edited by dave jay at 4:11 pm on Nov. 4, 2002)
Spot on Matron!<br>Hi Vic, despite everyone else, not just on here but everywhere not supporting the systems approach I am a fan of systems. Systems do work but the main part of all systems is awareness and the system’s historical data, which is the part you can’t buy.
VDW Staking Strategy
Set up a 100 point bank and stake 10% on the first horse. If the horse wins at 2/1. 20 points profit are returned and added to the 100 point bank.<br>Next Stake = 120/10 = 12<br>And so on which is level stakes betting.
VDW Recovery Plan<br>If the first horse loses the bank drops to 90 points. The striaght level stakes bet would then be<br>90/10 = 9 points on the next horse.<br>VDW recommends that the lost stake is divide by 10 and added to the original aim. In effect the losses are to be amortized over an ensuing series of winning bets using incremental stakes.<br>Bet    Stake    Bank<br>1      10      90<br>2      11      79<br>3      12      67<br>4      13      54<br>5      14      40<br>6      15      25<br>7      16      9
The bank blows after seven bet compared to level stakes where the bank is only halved after seven bets;<br>Bet    Stake     Bank<br>1      10       90<br>2       9        81<br>3       8        73<br>4       7        66<br>5       6.5      59<br>6       6        53<br>7       5        48<br>Therefore, £48 – £9 = £39 additional monies are risked.
I would suggest that this staking plane suits the fun punter who doesn’t want to spend more than £100 in a day at the races. He would stop at a winner or continue with reduced stakes once a winner is found.
My own research into this type of staking has suggested that a different type of campaign can be waged. Where instead of starting with a base figure of 10%, 5% can be used for the initial aim and then losses amortized at 10 or 15%.<br>At 10% a series of bets would look like this:<br>Bet     Stake       Bank<br>1        5         95<br>2        5.5        89<br>3        6         83<br>4        6.5        77<br>5        7         70<br>6        8         62<br>7        8.5        53.5<br>8        9.5        44<br>9        10.5       33.5<br>10       12        27.5<br>11       13        8.50<br>This extends the series of bets available to eleven before the bank is blown, which will give the bettor an improved comfort zone.
Staking this way enhances profit margins by 2 – 3%. So any selection method showing a loss of -5% or worse can’t be used, similarly any selection method which regularly has losing runs of seven or more shouldn’t be used as recovery is incremental and relies on a reasonable strike rate.
An idea for a longer and more sustained betting campaign!<br>As with ALL staking plans safety can be enhanced by using more than one betting bank and then controlling them to level stakes as follows:<br>Set up a total bank = 10,000 points<br>Split total bank into 10 working banks of 1000.<br>Options<br>A – use the 10 banks consequetively giving a total of 110 bets before the bank is blown.<br>B – Revise Bank values if a bank blows.<br>First Bank = 10000/10 = 1000/20 = 50 first aim.<br>Bank blows and total bank value drops to 9000<br>Second bank = 9000/10 = 900/20 = 45 first aim.<br>(And on and on)<br>These types of campaigns usually come down to two or three bets in a season making the difference between showing a profit or a loss, as the overall trend will be static.
My advise to anyone going down the VDW route,<br>Use the selection method to build your own system based on trends.<br>Look for 3 to 4 bets per week.<br>Staking can be used to enhance a profitable selection method by 2 to 3%
It is worthy of note that some ‘Newspaper Tipsters’ use VDW methodology to arrive at their daily selections, I came across this purely by accident.
I would be interested in other peoples views on this subject especially those who disagree and why.<br>(Some of the numbers aren’t quite right here I copied them from a spreadsheet)
(Edited by dave jay at 9:14 am on Nov. 3, 2002)
2/11/01<br>Abudant X<br>Dream with Me W7/4<br>Bow Strada NR<br>Platinum Charmer W 8/13<br>Kells X<br>Quito W 9/4
Today. Won @ 1  @ 7/4 +1.75
(Edited by dave jay at 9:12 am on Nov. 3, 2002)
2/11/02<br>Moor Lane X<br>Strong Tartan X<br>Damien’s Choice NR<br>Lord Noelie X
Today Lost LSP = -3
(Edited by dave jay at 9:21 am on Nov. 3, 2002)
This week’s results for system
Date Selections No. Win LSP<br>28/10 0<br>29/10 0<br>30/10 3 2 +1.6<br>31/10 0<br>1/11 6 3 +0.47
Results for week 5/9 = 55% LSP = +2.07<br>**********************************
Total system results so far
13/28 = 46% LSP = +14.95<br>**********************************<br>A bit of an odds-on week, all quiet on the BF front.
To Date 8/21 = 38% SR LSP = -0.37<br>****************************<br>Results for this week
Day   Selections  Win at   Price   LSP<br>28/10     9        2      4/9    -.55<br>29/10     2        1      13/8   +1.62<br>30/10     5        2      5/6   -0.16<br>31/10     3        2      10/11  -0.1<br>1/11      1        0      n/a    -1
For this week 4/8 = 50% LSP = -0.19<br>*****************************<br>System Total so far
SR = 12/29 = 41%  LSP = -0.56
****************************
