[Dartguru]

Saturday’s update:

Handicaps
———

Rio Royale Lingfield 02:10 Rat:3745 [15/2] 2^11 StakeW: £5.26 Stake e/w: 2x £2.63 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £6.58
Quinz Kempton 03:00 Rat:3692 [8/1] 1^16 StakeW: £5.19 Stake e/w: 2x £2.59 Win Return: £46.68 E/W Return: £31.12
Belon Gale Newcastle 03:15 Rat:3329 [6/1] PU^12 StakeW: £4.68 Stake e/w: 2x £2.34 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Forget It Kempton 04:45 Rat:3301 [6/1] 3^11 StakeW: £4.64 Stake e/w: 2x £2.32 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £5.10
Blue Moon Lingfield 04:55 Rat:3729 [11/2] 5^12 StakeW: £5.24 Stake e/w: 2x £2.62 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST

Win Total £46.68 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total £42.80 for a £25.00 stake

New Win running total: £27.11
New E/W running total: £7.07

Non-Handicaps
————-

Kumbeshwar Kempton 01:55 Rat:1287 [4/1] 3^9 StakeW: £4.30 Stake e/w: 2x £2.15 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.87
Captain Chris Kempton 02:25 Rat:1289 [2/5F] 1^3 StakeW: £4.31 Stake e/w: 2x £2.15 Win Return: £6.03 E/W Return: £6.03
Anne of Kiev Lingfield 03:10 Rat:1684 [12/1] 2^12 StakeW: £5.63 Stake e/w: 2x £2.81 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £9.57
Sire De Grugy Kempton 03:35 Rat:1565 [11/4] 1^7 StakeW: £5.23 Stake e/w: 2x £2.62 Win Return: £19.61 E/W Return: £14.22
Baylini Lingfield 04:20 Rat:1655 [5/1] 6^10 StakeW: £5.53 Stake e/w: 2x £2.77 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST

Win Total £25.65 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total £33.69 for a £25.00 stake

New Win running total: -£51.85
New E/W running total: -£32.63

[Dartguru]

I think so.
e.g
Russian Flag Sandown 02:20 £2.43 [7/1] 1^8 £25.29
Wins £17.01 + £2.43 for the win
Wins £3.40 + £2.43 for the place
£20.41 + £4.86 = £25.27

There’s a small rounding error because it’s not exactly £2.43 e/w but 3182/(3182+3295+3282+3306+3292) x 12.50
which is £2.43168

Can you give me an example of where I might be wrong other than like that?
I’ll try and sort out the rounding errors when I get a chance.

[Dartguru]

and I had enough time to run through today, so …

Today’s HC
———-
WIN running total = +£5.43
E/W running total = -£10.73

WIN
Rio Royale Lingfield 02:10 3745 Hc/St £5.26
Quinz Kempton 03:00 3692 HcCh/G/S £5.19
Belon Gale Newcastle 03:15 3329 HcCh/H £4.68
Forget It Kempton 04:45 3301 HcCh/G/S £4.64
Blue Moon Lingfield 04:55 3729 Hc/St £5.24

E/W
Rio Royale Lingfield 02:10 3745 Hc/St £2.63
Quinz Kempton 03:00 3692 HcCh/G/S £2.59
Belon Gale Newcastle 03:15 3329 HcCh/H £2.34
Forget It Kempton 04:45 3301 HcCh/G/S £2.32
Blue Moon Lingfield 04:55 3729 Hc/St £2.62

Today’s Non-HC
————–
WIN running total = -£52.50
E/W running total = -£41.32

WIN
Kumbeshwar Kempton 01:55 1287 JuvHu/G/S £4.30
Captain Chris Kempton 02:25 1289 NvCh/G/S £4.31
Anne of Kiev Lingfield 03:10 1684 St/St £5.63
Sire De Grugy Kempton 03:35 1565 NvHu/G/S £5.23
Baylini Lingfield 04:20 1655 ConSt/St £5.53

E/W
Kumbeshwar Kempton 01:55 1287 JuvHu/G/S £2.15
Captain Chris Kempton 02:25 1289 NvCh/G/S £2.15
Anne of Kiev Lingfield 03:10 1684 St/St £2.81
Sire De Grugy Kempton 03:35 1565 NvHu/G/S £2.62
Baylini Lingfield 04:20 1655 ConSt/St £2.77

[Dartguru]

Yesterday’s HC
————–

WIN

Russian Flag Sandown 02:20 £4.86 [7/1] 1^8 £38.91
Buona Sarah Lingfield £5.04 [3/1] 8^9 £-
Goodbye Cash Lingfield £5.02 [14/1] 7^8 £-
Thoughtsofstardom Wolverhampton 05:55 £5.05 [100/30F] 5^10 £-
Loyalty Wolverhampton 07:25 £5.03 [3/1] 1^8 £20.13

+£34.03

E/W

Russian Flag Sandown 02:20 £2.43 [7/1] 1^8 £25.29
Buona Sarah Lingfield 04:15 £2.52 [3/1] 8^9 £-
Goodbye Cash Lingfield 05:15 £2.51 [14/1] 7^8 £-
Thoughtsofstardom Wolverhampton 05:55 £2.53 [100/30F] 5^10 £-
Loyalty Wolverhampton 07:25 £2.52 [3/1] 1^8 £14.09

+£14.38

New WIN running total = +£5.43
New E/W running total = -£10.73

Yesterday’s non-HC
——————

WIN

Pepite Rose Warwick 02:40 £4.77 [85/40] 1^7 £14.92
Popcorn Navan 02:45 £5.18 [100/30] 2^25 £-
Kid Cassidy Sandown 02:50 £4.63 [8/11F] 2^6 £-
Pepe Simo Sandown 03:25 £5.59 [5/4F] 3^3 £-
Malice Or Mischief Lingfield 03:40 £4.83 [4/7F] 1^4 £7.58

-£2.50

E/W

Pepite Rose Warwick 02:40 £2.39 [85/40] 1^7 £11.12
Popcorn Navan 02:45 £2.59 [100/30] 2^25 £4.32
Kid Cassidy Sandown 02:50 £2.31 [8/11F] 2^6 £2.74
Pepe Simo Sandown 03:25 £2.80 [5/4F] 3^3 £-
Malice Or Mischief Lingfield 03:40 £2.41 [4/7F] 1^4 £7.58

+£0.75

New WIN running total = -£52.50
New E/W running total = -£41.32

[Dartguru]

Okay, last attempt for the week.

Handicaps
———

WIN running total = -£28.62
E/W running total = -£25.11

Russian Flag Sandown 02:20 3182 HcCh/S £4.86
Buona Sarah Lingfield 04:15 3295 FillHc/St £5.04
Goodbye Cash Lingfield 05:15 3282 FillHc/St £5.02
Thoughtsofstardom Wolverhampton 05:55 3306 Hc/St £5.05
Loyalty Wolverhampton 07:25 3292 Hc/St £5.03

Non-HC
——

WIN running total = -£50.00
E/W running total = -£42.17

Pepite Rose Warwick 02:40 1313 JuvHu/H £4.77
Popcorn Navan 02:45 1424 MdHu/H £5.18
Kid Cassidy Sandown 02:50 1273 NvHu/S £4.63
Pepe Simo Sandown 03:25 1538 NvCh/S £5.59
Malice Or Mischief Lingfield 03:40 1327 ClSt/St £4.83

Just for the record, here’s the one that didn’t make the top five (I have a bit more success with these yesterday, typically):-

Handicaps
———
Ally Pally Navan 01:40 874 MdHu/H
Julie Prince Navan 02:15 1009 MdHu/H
Ede’sajolygoodfelo Lingfield 02:30 957 MdAuctSt/St
Basford Bob Warwick 03:15 1018 NvHu/H
Vics Canvas Navan 03:20 1198 MdHu/H
Tafika Warwick 04:25 1074 NvCh/H
Wily Fox Lingfield 04:45 1040 MdSt/St
Young Victoria Warwick 04:55 987 NHF/H
Sunnydale High Navan 05:00 1098 NHF/H
Ballytober Sandown 05:05 1150 NHF/S
School For Scandal Wolverhampton 06:55 1239 MdSt/St
Gearbox Wolverhampton 07:55 1191 ClSt/St

Non-Handicaps
————-
Shalambar Sandown 01:45 2955 ConHcHu/S
Loyal Royal Lingfield 02:00 3177 Hc/St
Dormouse Warwick 02:10 2785 H&HHcHu/H
Indian Violet Lingfield 03:05 2951 Hc/St
Incentivise Warwick 03:50 3178 HcCh/H
Givemeabuzz Navan 03:55 2802 NvHcHu/H
Jordan Sandown 04:00 3074 HcHu/S
Odonimee Navan 04:30 2956 HcHu/H
Antonius Caesar Sandown 04:35 3120 HcCh/S
Best Known Secret Wolverhampton 05:25 2528 ApHc/St
Petomic Wolverhampton 06:25 2919 Hc/St
Black Baccara Wolverhampton 08:25 3083 Hc/St

[Dartguru]

Handicaps
———

WIN running total = -£3.62
E/W running total = -£6.52

Shifting Gold Southwell 03:15 2729 Hc/St £4.45
Ace of Spies Southwell 04:20 3274 Hc/St £5.34
Elusive Warrior Southwell 04:50 3045 Hc/St £4.97
Kheley Kempton 06:40 2904 Hc/St £4.74
Hip Hip Hooray Kempton 07:40 3376 Hc/St £5.51

NO WINNERS – OUCH
Aces of Spies returned £6.41 from £2.67 e/w @ 7/1

New WIN running total = -£28.62
New E/W running total = -£25.11

Non-HC
——

WIN running total = -£25.00
E/W running total = -£25.00

Pineapple Pete Southwell 02:10 1125 MdAuctSt/St £5.36
Bishopsfurze Thurles 03:30 1136 NvHu/S/H £5.41
Local Diktator Southwell 03:45 1291 ClSt/St £6.15
Lastkingofscotland Kempton 07:10 826 ClSt/St £3.93
Fox Hunt Kempton 08:10 873 ConSt/St £4.16

NO WINNERS – OUCH
Local Diktator returned £5.38 from £3.07 e/w @ 3/1
Fox Hunt returned £2.46 from £2.08 e/w @ 8/11

New WIN running total = -£50.00
New E/W running total = -£42.17

[Dartguru]

Revised 13:30 GMT.

Today’s predictions are straight from the box, I don’t know the prices of these horses.

When I get a bit more time, I want to look at how it rates the previous performances of the horse, and also how well or badly it predicted the previous days races. Obviously there can be reasons why certain horses fail to win other than bad predictions, I’m more interested in why winners weren’t predicted that maybe could have been. I’m also still a bit suspicious that the algorithm favours horses for which I have multiple previous form regardless of how good or bad it was.

Also, as I get more results to go by, I’ll try and use previous form a bit more intelligently. I have 81 engaged horses today for which I have no previous form and only 15 of them are first-timers, so the information is still rather lacking.

Handicaps
———

WIN running total = -£3.62
E/W running total = -£6.52

Shifting Gold Southwell 03:15 2729 Hc/St £4.45
Ace of Spies Southwell 04:20 3274 Hc/St £5.34
Elusive Warrior Southwell 04:50 3045 Hc/St £4.97
Kheley Kempton 06:40 2904 Hc/St £4.74
Hip Hip Hooray Kempton 07:40 3376 Hc/St £5.51

Non-HC
——

WIN running total = -£25.00
E/W running total = -£25.00

Pineapple Pete Southwell 02:10 1125 MdAuctSt/St £5.36
Bishopsfurze Thurles 03:30 1136 NvHu/S/H £5.41
Local Diktator Southwell 03:45 1291 ClSt/St £6.15
Lastkingofscotland Kempton 07:10 826 ClSt/St £3.93
Fox Hunt Kempton 08:10 873 ConSt/St £4.16

[Dartguru]

Not the greatest start.
As I said yesterday, I can’t decide if E/W or WIn is the way to go, so I’ll keep a running count for both

Handicaps
———
Chjimes Lingfield 02:20 4182 Hc/St £5.34 WON [3/1] return £21.38 (e/w WON £15.36)
Rileyev Ludlow 03:20 3150 HcCh/G/S £4.03 LOST (e/w PLACED [11/4] £3.12)
Chrysander Ludlow 03:50 3432 HcHu/G/S £4.39 LOST
Riflessione Kempton 05:35 4792 Hc/St £6.12 LOST
Clear Praise Kempton 08:05 4007 Hc/St £5.12 LOST

WIN running total = -£3.62
E/W running total = -£6.52

Non-HC
——
Fearless Falcon Fairyhouse 02:05 1038 JuvHu/H £2.68 LOST
Jubail Doncaster 03:10 1067 JuvHu/G/S £2.75 LOST
Dream of Fortune Lingfield 03:30 2482 SelSt/St £6.40 LOST
Wanchai Whisper Lingfield 04:30 1827 ClSt/St £4.71 LOST
Hinton Admiral Kempton 06:35 3276 ClSt/St £8.45 LOST

WIN running total = -£25.00
E/W running total = -£25.00

[Dartguru]

Billion,

interesting and I can understand the logic behind it.

The system I’ve been trying out offline (as I mentioned to you last week) has been using discretedata’s method of staking (for example) £50 on five horses pro rata dependent on each horse’s individual rating. Whereas he uses the horseracebase rating to provide a value, I’ve tried to devise my own.

I’m going to start posting my top five on here today or tomorrow when I’ve tweaked the algorithm a little more. My question to myself at the moment is whether a predicted 1/8 horse (Reachforthebucks yesterday 3:25 Southwell) should be included or whether the race should just be swerved.

Using your suggestion of "chasing winners" would probably lead me to WANT to not bother with races where I’ve predicted a 1/8 winner.

[Dartguru]

A reply that applies to both billion and discretedata (and other I guess)….

please continue to post the system qualifiers

I rarely post as I feel I have little input I can give as yet that enhances the already fascinating threads abouty systems. Believe me, I read them, digest them and note with interest the horses they come up with.

I have been playing around for a while with some kind of statistical formulae for identifying placed horses but, until I came across this forum, I had all but given up hope of being able to come up with something that took less than there are hours in the day. You’ve all given me some hope

I’m reluctant to subscribe to the HRB that has been mentioned on thses forums, as I think given time I can produce a statistical analysis of my own. I’d be curious to know if forum members consider the information it supplies to be of worth.

My own stats are based around the trainer’s current form, track history, first-timer history, lay-off history (how good the trainer is at producing a winner from a horse that has been off the track for a lengthy period) and the current form of the jockey. This includes their WinStake ratio.

It’s not been particularly successful, but I didn’t really expect it to be as yet as I haven’t got enough statistical data to go on. I’ve got about a year and a bit of results, but only started capturing ALL runners rather than just places from the New Year onwards, so I think I’ve quite a way to go before I’ve enough information to really get my teeth into it at which time I can start including the form of the actual horse (which would probably help).

So, to repeat, please don’t stop.

[Dartguru]

hi mate.out of the ones you mentioned theres only alpha tauri and short supply that have usa dirt pedigree’s.we are going to stick with usa dirt bred HAVING THERE 1ST RUN AT SOUTHWELL,this is the system that throughs up titanic priced winners,but as with any system lets not get carried away cos there will be lossers aswell.

Thanks for the reply.

I can see where I went wrong with the other horses (not actually being US bred even if their sires were) and can see from the RP site that the sire of Short Supply (Point Given) was a good performer on US dirt, so follow that logic, but couldn’t see where the same could be applied for the sire of Alpha Tauri. Is there another site that would give that kind of info about US horses that RP doesn’t?

Apologies if I’m being a bit of a pain, I’ve only been following horses for a year or so and I’m just trying yo understand.

[Dartguru]

Morning all.
I’m new here and spotted Robbie’s thoughts on US bred runners at Southwell, so thought I’d look out for them yesterday.

I thought the following were all US bred (although is there a difference with US Dirt Track bred?) but no-one mentioned them on here…

12:35 Alpha Tauri (as a previous CD)
1:05 Spirit of Dixie and Kheley (the latter managed a 3rd)
1:35 So Is She (11-2 winner)
2:05 Xilerator
2:35 Eastern Hills
3:35 Short Supply and Noverre Over There

Not complaining as I did ‘So Is She’ and got 8-1 for it, but am just a bit confused, probably through ignorance

[Author]

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