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Yesterday’s results
Not a great day. Interestingly, though, outside of my top ten picks (i.e. in the other 18 races but with lower ratings), I managed [11/1] and [6/1] winners and [8/1] and [17/2] places.
If I’d biased slightly more heavily towards trainer form three of those four would have made the top ten, so something for me to keep an eye on.Handicaps
=========Mason Hindmarsh Stake: £5.49 [11/2] 6^9 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Body Gold Stake: £4.04 [16/1] 10^12 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Ezzles Stake: £4.94 [5/2F] 9^9 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
School For Scandal Stake: £5.26 [9/4] 2^4 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Stargazing Stake: £5.27 [7/4F] 5^12 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £- for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £- for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£111.19
New E/W running total = -£83.87Non-Handicaps
============Dubai Crest Stake: £5.66 [15/8F] 5^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Cottage Flyer Stake: £4.26 [4/1] 3^3 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Sizing Ireland Stake: £4.98 [6/4F] 3^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.24
Little Fritz Stake: £5.59 [11/10F] 3^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Smart George Stake: £4.51 [5/4F] 6^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £- for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £3.24 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£32.74
New E/W running total = -£34.88Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£86.19
E/W running total = -£58.87
Mason Hindmarsh Catterick 03:20 Rat:2656 Stake: £5.40
Body Gold Hereford 04:10 Rat:2036 Stake: £4.14
Ezzles Catterick 05:20 Rat:2399 Stake: £4.88
School For Scandal Wolverhampton 07:00 Rat:2584 Stake: £5.25
Stargazing Wolverhampton 07:30 Rat:2620 Stake: £5.33
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
============WIN running total = -£7.74
E/W running total = -£13.12
Dubai Crest Hereford 02:10 Rat:3191 Stake: £5.68
Cottage Flyer Hereford 03:10 Rat:2430 Stake: £4.32
Sizing Ireland Hereford 03:40 Rat:2825 Stake: £5.03
Little Fritz Hereford 05:10 Rat:3176 Stake: £5.65
Smart George Wolverhampton 08:00 Rat:2432 Stake: £4.33
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)When I started v2 of this, I deliberately left out adding a figure derived from the previous record of the horse in similar races. Interestingly, this has had the effect of making the HC performance rubbish and the non-HC performance better (but still not in profit).
So, I’ve re-introduced this figure which either adds or subtracts a figure from the horse’s rating if it has had previous comparable good/bad form since records began, which sounds grand, but in realilty only goes back to January 9th
, however, every day these records get more and more comprehensive. Since January 9th, I’ve got over 20,000 records of individual horse-in-race records.So, seeing as I’m on a waffling roll, I’ll briefly (or not) explain where a figure of 2620 comes from for Stargazing as an example for one of today’s selections. In all cases, the each number is factored with a bias for perceived importance.
This is made up of 443 for the trainer (Marco Botti), 240 for the jockey (Adam Kirby), 846 for the horse and 131 for the rating/weight (which is identical to all other entries in the field and only has a bearing in non-HC or when horses are out of the HC), plus 960 for being the top-rated trainer, jockey and horse in the race, making a grand total of 2620.
Over the last four weeks Marco Botti has had 4 winners and 2 places from 15 races, with a winstake of -6.55 and prize money of £11094.53.
At Wolverhampton since January 9th he has had 8 winners and 4 places from 24 races, with a winstake of +7.48 and prize money of £19820.47.
The 443 for Marco Botti is made up of 92 for current form, 74 for prize money, 132 for track form, 83 for track prize money, 62 for travelling from his base in Suffolk (roughly 150 miles).Over the last four weeks Adam Kirby has had 8 winners and 9 places from 40 rides with a winstake of -3.76 and prize money of £33524.64.
I don’t (yet) factor in the jockey’s form at a particular track.
The 240 for Adam Kirby is made up from 156 for current form and 84 for prize money.
I also don’t (yet) consider the trainer/jockey combination as a factor.Stargazing is in a 1mC6Hc rated 60 at 9st3. Since January 9th it’s record is 1^12 in a 1m1fC6Hc rated 52 at 8st13, 1^5 in a 1mC5Hc rated 55 at 8st13 and 2^6 in a 1m1fC5Hc rated 59 at 8st12, all at Wolverhampton. Each race gets a rating of 251, 260 and 102 respectively.
The 846 for the horse is made up of 25 for previous CD form, 140 for prize money, 68 for the form of horses whose previous three races have been 1-1-2 (which, for the record is 25 races, five winners and four places) and 613 for the previous records for this horse in similar races as shown above. I don’t (yet) consider how long ago these races were.For the record, the other horses in the 07:30 aty Wolverhampton are rated as follows:-
Stargazing 2620
Kyle of Bute 2044
Join Up 1422
Twisted 1322
Catching Zeds 1193
Serious Drinking 1145
Just Timmy Marcus 1116
Forward Feline 1063
Dazakhee 931
Aldo 923
Justcallmehandsome 829
Novay Essjay 810Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Looksmart Stake: £4.22 [12/1] 8^12 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Teshali Stake: £4.51 [3/1] 1^7 Win Return: £18.05 E/W Return: £12.97
Bunce Stake: £4.33 [Evs] 2^3 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Earth Planet Stake: £4.57 [3/1] 2^4 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Shacklesborough Stake: £7.37 [9/4F] 3^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £5.34
Win Total: £18.05 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £18.32 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£86.19
New E/W running total = -£58.87Non-Handicaps
=============Bold Addition Stake: £7.34 [2/11F] 1^4 Win Return: £8.67 E/W Return: £8.67
I Confess Stake: £3.20 [7/4F] 2^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £2.30
Qozak Stake: £7.68 [2/13F] 1^2 Win Return: £8.86 E/W Return: £8.86
Karasenir Stake: £3.65 [4/9F] 4^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Calcot Rose Stake: £3.14 [28/1] 10^11 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £17.53 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £19.83 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£7.74
New E/W running total = -£13.12Today’s selections – blimey, it’s a quiet day today
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£79.24
E/W running total = -£52.19
Looksmart Lingfield 03:10 Rat:2250 Stake: £4.22
Teshali Taunton 03:20 Rat:2405 Stake: £4.51
Bunce Lingfield 03:40 Rat:2308 Stake: £4.33
Earth Planet Taunton 03:50 Rat:2434 Stake: £4.57
Shacklesborough Taunton 04:20 Rat:3927 Stake: £7.37
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = -£0.27
E/W running total = -£7.95
Bold Addition Taunton 02:20 Rat:4085 Stake: £7.34
I Confess Lingfield 02:40 Rat:1779 Stake: £3.20
Qozak Taunton 02:50 Rat:4277 Stake: £7.68
Karasenir Southwell 03:00 Rat:2031 Stake: £3.65
Calcot Rose Taunton 05:20 Rat:1748 Stake: £3.14
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yetsterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Filippo Lippi Stake: £5.78 [7/2] 2^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £4.91
Shrewd Investment Stake: £4.45 [7/2] 2^5 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £4.17
Lidar Stake: £5.39 [5/2F] PU^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Bid Art Stake: £4.45 [2/1] F^4 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Joe Le Taxi Stake: £4.94 [EvensF] 1^3 Win Return: £9.89 E/W Return: £9.89
Win Total: £9.89 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £18.97 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£79.24
New E/W running total = -£52.19Non-Handicaps
=============Edgeworth Stake: £4.46 [10/1] 9^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Sircozy Stake: £3.97 [2/9F] 1^3 Win Return: £4.86 E/W Return: £4.86
Araldur Stake: £5.48 [30/100F] 1^8 Win Return: £7.13 E/W Return: £6.47
No Idea Stake: £4.64 [7/4F] 3^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.13
Trojan Sun Stake: £6.45 [9/2] 6^13 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £11.99 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £14.46 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£0.27
New E/W running total = -£7.95Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£64.13
E/W running total = -£46.16
Filippo Lippi Towcester 04:00 Rat:2407 Stake: £5.78
Shrewd Investment Plumpton 04:10 Rat:1853 Stake: £4.45
Lidar Towcester 04:30 Rat:2244 Stake: £5.39
Bid Art Plumpton 04:40 Rat:1852 Stake: £4.45
Joe Le Taxi Wolverhampton 04:50 Rat:2060 Stake: £4.94
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-handicaps
=============WIN running total = £12.74
E/W running total = £2.59
Edgeworth Plumpton 02:10 Rat:1786 Stake: £4.46
Sircozy Plumpton 03:10 Rat:1593 Stake: £3.97
Araldur Towcester 03:30 Rat:2198 Stake: £5.48
No Idea Plumpton 05:10 Rat:1858 Stake: £4.64
Trojan Sun Towcester 05:30 Rat:2585 Stake: £6.45
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Today’s results
Handicaps
=========Breeze With Ease Stake: £5.81 [11/8F] 2^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.70
Choumakeur Stake: £4.35 [7/2C] 3^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Knocklayde Euro Stake: £5.77 [7/2] 2^12 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £5.41
Magic Marmalade Stake: £4.50 [9/4] F^5 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Gimlis Rock Stake: £4.57 [15/8F] 2^14 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.35
Win Total: £- for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £12.47 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£64.13
New E/W running total = -£46.16Non-Handicaps
=============Mejd Stake: £3.66 [20/1] RO^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Sikara Stake: £9.21 [NR] [NR] Win Return: £9.21 E/W Return: £9.21
Fosters Cross Stake: £4.23 [4/5F] 1^5 Win Return: £7.62 E/W Return: £6.35
Thatll Do Stake: £3.67 [NR] [NR] Win Return: £3.67 E/W Return: £3.67
Indian Shamrock Stake: £4.22 [8/1] PU^12 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £20.51 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £19.24 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = £12.74
New E/W running total = £2.59Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£39.13
E/W running total = -£33.63
Breeze With Ease Downpatrick 03:20 Rat:3054 Stake: £5.81
Choumakeur Wincanton 03:25 Rat:2285 Stake: £4.35
Knocklayde Euro Downpatrick 03:50 Rat:3035 Stake: £5.77
Magic Marmalade Wincanton 04:25 Rat:2366 Stake: £4.50
Gimlis Rock Leopardstown 04:30 Rat:2400 Stake: £4.57
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = £17.23
E/W running total = £8.35
Mejd Downpatrick 02:20 Rat:2490 Stake: £3.66
Sikara Leopardstown 02:30 Rat:6269 Stake: £9.21
Fosters Cross Downpatrick 02:50 Rat:2882 Stake: £4.23
Thatll Do Wincanton 03:55 Rat:2499 Stake: £3.67
Indian Shamrock Downpatrick 04:20 Rat:2874 Stake: £4.22
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s result
Handicaps
=========Moose Moran Stake: £4.43 [4/1] PU^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Kerada Stake: £5.00 [3/1F] F^9 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Violin Davis Stake: £6.15 [12/1] 2^18 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £12.29
Ten Bob Stake: £4.16 [11/1] 3^30 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £7.80
The Hard Hat Stake: £5.26 [9/2] 7^17 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £- for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £20.10 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£39.13
New E/W running total = -£33.63Non-Handicaps
=============Waveband Stake: £4.31 [13/2] 6^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Captain Paulie Stake: £4.26 [7/2] 1^22 Win Return: £19.17 E/W Return: £13.20
Current Event Stake: £6.53 [15/8] 1^7 Win Return: £18.77 E/W Return: £14.18
Saludos Stake: £4.41 [NR] [NR] Win Return: £4.41 E/W Return: £4.41
Broomfield Stake: £5.49 [11/10F] 2^15 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.35
Win Total: £42.34 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £35.14 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = £17.23
New E/W running total = £8.35Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = -£14.13
E/W running total = -£28.73
Moose Moran Newbury 01:45 Rat:3145 Stake: £4.43
Kerada Newbury 02:15 Rat:3554 Stake: £5.00
Violin Davis Newbury 02:50 Rat:4368 Stake: £6.15
Ten Bob Navan 03:55 Rat:2957 Stake: £4.16
The Hard Hat Navan 05:30 Rat:3740 Stake: £5.26
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = -£0.11
E/W running total = -£1.79
Waveband Lingfield 02:00 Rat:3368 Stake: £4.31
Captain Paulie Navan 02:15 Rat:3326 Stake: £4.26
Current Event Newbury 04:00 Rat:5098 Stake: £6.53
Saludos Navan 05:00 Rat:3442 Stake: £4.41
Broomfield Newbury 05:05 Rat:4290 Stake: £5.49
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Morcambe Stake: £5.90 [16/1] PU^14 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
River Dor Stake: £5.26 [5/1] 3^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £5.27
Teshali Stake: £4.77 [16/1] 4^14 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Noble Jack Stake: £4.39 [20/1] 8^13 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Mr Pianist Stake: £4.67 [7/1] 9^14 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £- for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £5.27 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£14.13
New E/W running total = -£28.73Non-Handicaps
=============Oasis Knight Stake: £4.91 [9/2] 6^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Snowflake Dancer Stake: £3.65 [9/2] 1^9 Win Return: £20.06 E/W Return: £13.50
Miss Fairbanks Stake: £8.62 [NR] [NR] Win Return: £8.62 E/W Return: £8.62
Pivotal Rock Stake: £3.93 [12/1] 4^13 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Oh My Days Stake: £3.90 [10/11F] 3^8 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £2.31
Win Total: £28.68 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £24.42 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£0.11
New E/W running total = -£1.79Today’s selections.
Some interesting ones popping up today with the big-gun trainers in Henderson (Oasis Knight and Morcambe) and Nicholls (River Dor and Teshali) both featuring twice.
Both appear due to extremely good prize money per race in the last month. I expect this to balance out a little over time as they also enter a lot of horses.
Nicholls gets the nod over Henderson in two races where they clash due to the better jockey form. It should be noted, however, that Patsy Finnegan in the Newbury 03:50 comes very close to usurping them both with his very good form.Nicholls & Henderson’s prize money rating pales compared to that of Tommy Stack at Dundalk, who has £56k from two wins in only four outings in the last month, hence the inclusion of Miss Fairbanks and Pivotal Rock. A bias that needs to be kept an eye on.
Handicaps
=========WIN running total = £10.87
E/W running total = -£8.99
Morcambe Newbury 03:15 Rat:3020 Stake: £5.90
River Dor Newbury 03:50 Rat:2695 Stake: £5.26
Teshali Newbury 04:25 Rat:2440 Stake: £4.77
Noble Jack Dundalk 09:00 Rat:2249 Stake: £4.39
Mr Pianist Dundalk 09:25 Rat:2393 Stake: £4.67
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = -£3.79
E/W running total = -£1.21
Oasis Knight Newbury 02:10 Rat:3129 Stake: £4.91
Snowflake Dancer Dundalk 06:30 Rat:2327 Stake: £3.65
Miss Fairbanks Dundalk 08:00 Rat:5497 Stake: £8.62
Pivotal Rock Dundalk 08:30 Rat:2506 Stake: £3.93
Oh My Days Wolverhampton 08:45 Rat:2489 Stake: £3.90
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Ouest Eclair Stake: £4.38 [11/10F] 2^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £2.79
Double The Trouble Stake: £4.15 [13/8F] 1^5 Win Return: £10.89 E/W Return: £8.37
Victory Gunner Stake: £6.37 [6/1] 6^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Roudoudou Ville Stake: £5.15 [11/8F] 1^5 Win Return: £12.22 E/W Return: £9.57
Against The Wind Stake: £4.96 [3/1] 3^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £23.11 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £20.72 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = £10.87
New E/W running total = -£8.99Non-Handicaps
=============Killultagh Queen Stake: £4.36 [4/6F] 2^15 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £2.47
The Knoxs Stake: £4.78 [4/7F] 1^3 Win Return: £7.51 E/W Return: £7.51
Ainm Spartacus Stake: £8.95 [2/1] 4^5 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Popcorn Stake: £3.55 [4/7F] 1^17 Win Return: £5.58 E/W Return: £4.77
Oca De Thaix Stake: £3.37 [6/4F] 1^9 Win Return: £8.41 E/W Return: £6.39
Win Total: £21.50 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £21.14 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£3.79
New E/W running total = -£1.21So much for Ainm Spartacus
As I said, there is a heavy bias at the moment towards horses that have run once won once since Xmas (or rather 09/Jan/11) as the prize factoring is skewed towards them – heaven forbid when Long Run comes out again
The more race data I capture, the more I hope that this skewing will reduce. I still want to continue factoring in prize money, for all of trainer/jockey/horse, but appreciate that the little data I have will affect the picks at the moment.
I have just been reading %MAN’s thread on system picks with interest (https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 85656.html) and can see certain similarities in the way we do things. He (or she, not to be sexist) takes into consideration the type and class of race more than I do at the moment, mainly because I am still heavily into collating as much data as possible, but I was interested to note that he ignores lower class races becaue (to paraphrase) "the greater the pot, the greater the effort". This is very much in the same vein as VDW, which I’ve also been soaking up on.
Hopefully, my scattergun approach to building a computerised system will eventually bear fruit.
Today’s selections.
The one stand-out selection of the day is Ainm Spartacus in the Thurles 2:55, due in no small part to his win at Limerick on 12th March. This shows a probably-too-heavy weighting towards prize money, but I’ll keep an eye on this over the coming days.Handicaps
=========WIN running total = £12.76
E/W running total = -£4.71
Ouest Eclair Carlisle 02:20 Rat:3719 Stake: £4.38
Double The Trouble Southwell 02:30 Rat:3526 Stake: £4.15
Victory Gunner Chepstow 03:15 Rat:5408 Stake: £6.37
Roudoudou Ville Chepstow 03:50 Rat:4371 Stake: £5.15
Against The Wind Carlisle 04:00 Rat:4215 Stake: £4.96
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Non-Handicaps
=============WIN running total = -£0.29
E/W running total = £2.65
Killultagh Queen Thurles 01:55 Rat:4502 Stake: £4.36
The Knoxs Carlisle 02:50 Rat:4935 Stake: £4.78
Ainm Spartacus Thurles 02:55 Rat:9241 Stake: £8.95
Popcorn Thurles 03:25 Rat:3670 Stake: £3.55
Oca De Thaix Chepstow 04:55 Rat:3476 Stake: £3.37
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========Maurisca Stake: £4.84 [5/2F] 1^8 Win Return: £16.93 E/W Return: £12.09
Glencree Stake: £4.92 [6/4F] 2^4 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Pantxoa Stake: £4.64 [11/8F] 2^3 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Hectors Choice Stake: £6.41 [9/2] PU^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Sir Boss Stake: £4.19 [9/2] 2^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £4.46
Win Total: £16.93 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £16.55 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = £12.76
New E/W running total = -£4.71Non-Handicaps
=============Red Merlin Stake: £4.48 [2/5F] 1^5 Win Return: £6.27 E/W Return: £5.60
Highway Code Stake: £6.65 [9/4] 1^11 Win Return: £21.60 E/W Return: £15.62
Miereveld Stake: £4.73 [6/1] 3^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
A Bridge Too Far Stake: £4.62 [2/5F] 1^5 Win Return: £6.47 E/W Return: £5.78
Ebanour Stake: £4.52 [13/8F] 3^10 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.00
Win Total: £34.34 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £29.99 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£0.29
New E/W running total = £2.65
, however, every day these records get more and more comprehensive. Since January 9th, I’ve got over 20,000 records of individual horse-in-race records.
