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Not very often I contribute things like this.
but I think this nonsense is in danger of bringing our forum into disrepute. After going to Newbury yesterday, I thought I’d look in to get a bit of measured opinion from others.
There was a lot of shell-shocked people there, & some others that you really had to feel for, they were clearly very upset by it all.
The tone & the ignorance of most of this thread is just wrong.
After another couple of novice hurdles, Sun Des Mottes still hasn’t shown any sign of seeing out a race. I was surprised she was tried over 2m4f & 2m6f though, I was thinking she needed a fairly sharp 2m on decent ground!
She now has a lowly handicap mark of OR75. I noticed she was entered in a h/cap at Chepstow during the week (I wasn’t even sure that 2m on heavy with an uphill finish would suit her).
I looked up the race that evening, I see the meeting was abandoned. I was wondering if anyone could tell me if she was backed? Or at least what her forecast SP was, & maybe what she was trading on the exchanges at?
Imo, if you want to go to Royal Ascot, the Tuesday is a good choice. I find the racing that day brilliant & there’s a buzz with it being the start of the meeting. It’s still very busy, but not as crowded as it gets later in the week.
Personally, I’d steer clear of the Saturday, whilst the racing is good, it’s becoming extremely crowded & hectic that day, & full!
Somewhere, I’ve got a surreal photo I took a couple of years back on the Saturday morning of RA. We were taking a short train hop from Clapham Junction to Hampton Court. We got to the station & thought there had been some security alert or worse. There was people everywhere & massive queues. Getting in amongst them, most were dressed for Royal Ascot. It turned out there was so many people trying to get a train to Ascot, they had to close the platform for safety reasons. The queue to even get to the platform, snaked right around the station.
I tend to go more often later in the year, & the Betfair/King George weekend is well worth a visit. It’s busy, but nowhere near as busy as the Royal meeting.
The Shergar Cup (Sat 6th Aug), is a lively day & has a very good atmosphere, and a concert afterwards. You don’t get any top class group races. You also have to decide whether the idea of having teams works for you. I got a bit fed up with it last year.
As Seabird mentioned the QE2 meeting in September was a lovely meeting, especially if you got some nice Autumn sun as well. Sadly with all the changes, I think the content of that meeting is changing. They are still racing on Fri 30th Sept/Sat 1st Oct this year, but they have this new British Champions Day on Sat 15th Oct, which could be nice if the weather holds, but could be cold & miserable if it doesn’t.
If he runs, think I’d fancy a bit each-way on Fiulin at 33/1. You could argue that one of these strong pace handicaps will suit him. It may mean they can settle him near the front, but without having to make the pace.
He’s still a maiden over hurdles, but has some very good form. On only his 2nd start, he ran in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham, & finished a respectable 7th behind the likes of Menorah, GMOFH, Dunguib & Oscar Whisky. That was at level weights, he gets into this race with a 20lb pull over GMOOH, & 16lb over WO.
Even his 3rd last time over this C+D is starting to look good. The winner was Dunraven Storm, who is now OR150, & the 2nd was Recession Proof, who is also entered in this race, & theoretically has a better chance than Fiulin.
Imo the above race is one of the key form lines, together with the Newbury race won by Tocca Ferro, with Rebel Dancer 2nd.
I don’t think any of the entries for this could match Fiulin’s level of form on the flat, & he’s already shown he has ability over hurdles as well.
Like TAPK, I still think there’s a lot to come from GMOOH. I’ve never really had a problem with trainers bringing horses to a peak slowly (like J.O’Neill with GMOOH & Syncronised etc). It’s quite interesting to try & work out what they are planning.
I’m not sure what to make of the posts about me. Gamble seems to have me down as a 7/1 non-trier, & Glenn’s post makes me sound like the ghost of Christmas past, who came to visit Scrooge (although I think I know what he’s talking about, which is more than I can say for Gamble).
Just to say, I enjoyed the evening & it was nice to meet Glenn & Paul, & they honestly got on very well.
We had a few beers in the Bloomsbury Tavern, then introduced Glenn to the Lowlander & had a few there as well. For those with fond memories of the Lowlander, it’s very much as you would remember it, lovely range of quite potent beers, although they do have more British food on their menu now, but you can still have your Moules Marinieres etc.
We did touch upon the idea of arranging something similar in the Spring, think we had a pre Cheltenham do there a few years back. The Lowlander do actually do a really nice beer-tasting & nibbles evening for groups.
I will try & make an effort to get to this. Could be stuck in London anyway what with tube strikes, snow etc.
Is it still on for the Tuesday ?
I’ll try describe LMAX as best I can, hopefully correctly! It’s going to give retail clients (the public), the chance to trade a couple of financial products directly on-line, which until recently, they would have needed to do through a broker. It’s not bog standard stuff though, it’s relatively high-risk, & can be fast-moving sometimes.
The main things they are trading as I understand it are:
‘contracts-for-difference’ (CFD’s) which are vechiles of a particular investment product, which could be any product really, bonds, gilts, shares, commodoties etc.
&
‘foreign exchange’ (FX) which as the name suggests allows you to trade one currency against another.Re the Betfair shares, if you are the pround owner of some. I’d hang on to them. They really are city favourites at the moment, & their fundamentals are very sound. I’d expect them to hit £20+ at some point in the 12 months. I’d be a bit negative beyond that, maybe a couple of years out. The company is going to be valued quite highly, & alot of expectation would be built into the price…somee negative news re regulation, or taxation, of the business could cause a sharp drop back from a nice high! I’d be happy to hold them now, but wouldn’t want to be holding them in a year or two at well over £20 a share.
In any case, David, there are much more important issues await. There’s two listed races on the AW at Lingfield on Thursday.
I’d agree re the price, med-long term, Drone. Although I think the honeymoon period for these shares may last a little while yet. Could go further forward first.
Your spot on, alot of people have been waiting for a decent float to get stuck into. Hence the comment aabout New Smith, you can’t blame them for being involved, it’s their business!
Suppose we’d better not clog up David’s poll with views on Betfair’s share price.
Just a slightly different opinion
Not sure this is about him being inept and incapable, this is just a judgement thing.
Imo, it would be almost a bigger scandal if New Smith CP had declined any interest in the Betfair IPO, or later in shares, citing that they did
not
want to cause a conflict with Paul Roy’s other interests. NS have a responsibility to their clients (some of which are big institutions/funds etc), & their staff, to ensure they are able to participate in new issues likes this if they want to. Because of the recession, flotations & IPO’s like Betfair’s have been very few & far between, this one seems to have caught the imagination in the city (probably because the model is quite close to a city trading model in lots of ways & many racing people may have overlooked the interesting LMAX online trading system which Betfair own)…..imo you can’t stop New Smith buying shares in Betfair, & you can’t personally blame Paul Roy for them doing so.
In this situation, Paul Roy has interests to declare to both NSCP and the BHA, & in fairness, for all we know he may have declared both interests in advance ?
Where I agree with most others, is that it does makes his position at the BHA untenable. He going to find it very difficult to comment on any aspect of Betfair’s business, without drawing a conflict of interest claim. If he has any sort of moral judgement, he’ll see this & act accordingly.
An equally interesting question, would a good judge be buying Betfair shares a £15.00+ as a long term proposition ?
I’ve got a couple of ideas for this race.
Taqleed
– The idea of backing an unexposed J.Gosden 3yo in this is a sound one. Nationalism has had all the support & that may prove to be justified…but Taqleed has a very similar profile, is probably even less exposed, & is a few lbs lower in the ratings. Has had a prep on this course over 10f as well. Think I’d rather take a chance with him at 20/1, than the favourite at 4/1.
Emirates Dream
– This is much more speculative, as it’s not his stables MO to win this sort of race, & he may not even run. You also have to buy into a few excuses. As a 2yo, this horse was chasing home the likes of Behkabad, Siyouni & Buzzword (all rated OR110+). As a 3yo, his form looks disappointing…but if you’re prepared to write off his 1st run of the season in a G2 in May (not Godophins best time & possibly 1m3f too far), & his 3rd run of the season at Goodwood (1m4f too far again?). You are left with two 2010 runs. A 3rd in a 10f conditions race at Leicester. On face value, that doesn’t look great, but he was beaten by Myplacelater & Desert Myth (who are now rated OR110 & OR107 respectively) & Prompter (now rated OR102) was behind in 5th. Most recently ED has won a small handicap comfortably off OR93 at Goodwood. You can argue that he’s well hanicapped off OR93 & a 4lb penalty. Whether he has the toughness for a race like this, that has to be proved, but imo he should not be anywhere near a 40/1 shot.
The form of the Newmarket maiden which Frankel won is starting to look fairly strong.
The 2nd home (Nathaniel) was beaten a SH by another H.Cecil horse next time, but the 3rd, 5th, 8th & 11th from that race, have all come out & won since.
Others who finished down the field in that race, like Elrasheed, Man of God & Maher, still have entries in the G1 Racing Post Trophy & assorted Derbys.
Following on from the points Pinza made. I’ve noticed over the last few years, that H.Cecil has seemed keen to test the stamina of his better middle-distance horses as 2yo’s. His G1 winners Passage of Time and Twice Over both raced & won over 1m2f as 2yo’s, & many others (as you would probably expect) raced over a 1m as 2yo’s.
You could agrue that it’s significant (& unusual) that Cecil was prepared to drop Frankel back in trip to 7f for his second run. They must think he has speed, & the Doncaster time seems to back that up.
I’m sure none of us really know, but if there’s any milage in the above, it could be they are thinking of going via the 2000gns.
I think there’s a few reasons to suggest that Fortuni may be a bit better than a handicapper. The collateral form alone (via Cill Rialaig & Imposing) gives him a fair chance.
I was fascinated by his Epsom win. They didn’t seem to go that fast early, and without official sectional times, it’s going to have to involve some guesswork…..but he seemed to cover the home straight (well, from the path to the finishing line), & a similar time to the horse which won the previous race that day, run over the same C+D.
It’s probably irrelevant, as I read he’s unlikely to run, & if he does, there will have to be a fitness doubt because he’s supposedly been sick.
Well done to all the Damika backers, that’s really well thought out.
I have followed him for ages & think he’s always been campaigned really honestly & deserves this. It was the soft ground (& the draw, & probably the 3lb claim) that did it for him on Saturday.
Don’t think about about backing him off OR 100+ on good to firm ground next time though!
I have this left-field theory that you can sometimes work out how good a horse may be….by the way the owners name them.
The late Bobby Frankel trained loads of stakes winners for Juddmonte Farms in the US (like Empire Maker, Heat Haze, Intercontinental etc), & also had success with a few that H.Cecil originally trained (like Chester House & Beat Hollow).
You have to guess they have named Frankel in memory of him, & with such warm memories, surely they wouldn’t name an ordinary horse after him.
Despite the stick the Shergar Cup gets, I’ve always enjoyed going to it. It’s not often I complain, but my enjoyment of the day was totally spoilt by the colours. Some of the customers who were there, do want to follow the horses, & the colours made it very difficult.
The attendance was good, and in fairness there was loads of other good things going on. The colours, as far as I’m concerned, are an attempt to dumb it down too far. You had people supoorting the reds or the greens (which is actually quite nice for the children). It may be the intention of the racecourse to make it the ultimate team event. I doubt if I will go to this meeting again.
I don’t buy this excuse of the course getting caught up in Wetherbys/BHA red tape though, however true it may be. Someone has had to make a consious decision to choose (& then approve) these colours, & that was a poor decision.
This is not meant to be a snobby remark, but I think Ascot are very tolerant (sometimes too much so) about what they allow men to wear in the Premier enclosure.
It may be different for the Royal meeting which I don’t go to, but for other flat meetings like the QE2 & Shergar Cup etc. I think it can be very relaxed, both in dress code and in some cases behaviour as well.
Naturally some people do like to dress up, but the idea that it’s elitest at these meetings is not the case. You can sometimes feel a bit over-dressed in a suit & tie.
